Rebalancing ?

[bluedog]

Current Canadian PP allocation:

LTs    25%

Cash  23%

Gold  35%

Stocks 17%

Am gun shy of stocks at present.

Do I need to sell gold yet?

Thx, Bluedog:)

[Kshartle]

Am gun shy of stocks at present.

Are you good at predicting the stock market?

BTW - I am too. I bet everyone here is. That's a sucky argument for buying stocks but odds are if we all felt really good about stocks they would be on the verge of crashing.

[bluedog]

Just saw on the news that the crisis in Ukraine is escalating.

Armed soldiers stormed a base in Crimea killed one Ukranian soldier and injuring another.

Ukranian soldiers have been given the go-ahead to use arms.

No, I am not good about predicting anything.

But kind of thinking this may not be the day to sell gold.

Thx, Bluedog

[Cortopassi]

But even with Ukraine, the stock market is rocking and gold is dropping...

As I've found over the past five years of event after event after event that should have, would have, could have, sent gold to the moon and stocks to the depths, look where we are at!

I know "I" cannot predict, and when I do, I am right much less than 50% of the time.

Here I am about 3 weeks into PP across accounts and I am up 0.51%.  You know what?  I am happy with that and not stressing out about watching gold and miners anymore!

Mike

[bluedog]

Thanks for your insight, Mike.

Sometimes we need that.

Bluedog

[tnt]

But even with Ukraine, the stock market is rocking and gold is dropping...

As I've found over the past five years of event after event after event that should have, would have, could have, sent gold to the moon and stocks to the depths, look where we are at!

I know "I" cannot predict, and when I do, I am right much less than 50% of the time.

Here I am about 3 weeks into PP across accounts and I am up 0.51%.  You know what?  I am happy with that and not stressing out about watching gold and miners anymore!

Mike

Cortopassi, did you just establish your first pp?  I am curious if you purchased all the positions at once irrespective of what any prices were for the individual assets. Thanks.

[Cortopassi]

I did it 3 weeks ago with no regard to current pricing.  There was no other way to do it, otherwise I never would have!

[tnt]

You are the second one to tell me that and I agree.  Also after reviewing data comparing, PP, PRPFX, VWINX and the S&P since the 70's, we see that when you compensate for the actual returns needed to recover losses from 2000-2003 & in 08 for the S&P, it has only returned 5.5% annually for the last 14 years and the same from 08-13.  The historical market returns are 8-10% so the market has priced out the slow growth and other issues.  From this perspective, I don't think the market is as overpriced as many have believed including me and it just bolsters the PP concept. Just have to stick to it.  besides, if stocks tanked, something else will go up.  I am being held hostage right now waiting for assets to transfer from Schwab to Vanguard, frustrating process!

[barrett]

I also started a PP this year and went with equal parts despite the fact that I didn't want to buy 30-year bonds. My investment record has to be worse than Cortopassi's. We should really find out who the worst VP investors are on this forum so that we can all figure out what not to do. tnt, that stinks waiting for assets to transfer. I am in the same boat but maybe the PP will be down in the next few days and I can buy low.

[Cortopassi]

I'll wager my record is worse than yours...

[tnt]

After exiting stocks in12/11, I am the example of what not to do.  I have heard the pp faithful talk about sleeping at night and it is the truth.  Watching the market for 2 years from the outside as it goes up trying to figure out when to get in, is a miserable thing. Whatever happens from here, I will rebalance and go on.  It is like medicine, if you miss a dose, don't double up to catch up, just take the next dose. 

[Cortopassi]

Totally right, but I tell you, right now I HATE gold yet again.  It just so often does not function like one would expect.  It is non correlated to everything sometimes!

Mike

[jay]

Bluedog,

When did you start your CAD PP for it to look like this today?

[Cortopassi]

Bluedog,

Just goes to show you, the day you said today may not be the day to sell gold it was at ~1370, and we are now about 1318 with day after day of non stop selling.  Can't predict the future!

Mike

[tnt]

Gold will fill in all the grey areas and then some.  It is a beautiful thing and fun to watch as long as we sleep tonight and rebalance when called for. To Bluedog's question, it is obvious that gold is a sell @ 35% but a more veteran PP question is, does it go to cash until another asset is 15%?  My opinion is that I would rather be over on cash allocation and have the profits moved to cash until another asset is ready. 

[bluedog]

TNT,

Exactly what I did.

Sold the gold to 25% and left it in cash.

Will await an asset declining to 15% to re-balance.

Thx to all,
Bluedog