phasing in stock position

[tnt]

I am phasing into the positions in my permanent portfolio and don't mind buying the gold and bonds but in regards to the stock portion, would it be wise to phase in over two years considering current valuations?  I appreciate any input, thank you.

[Pointedstick]

The nature of the PP is such that probably at least one asset is always going to be at a peak. The question, of course, is whether we're about to see a decline or an even higher rise. If you could predict that, you probably wouldn't need the PP.

[tnt]

True, it is the very core of PP. Since exiting stocks at the end of 2011, I found two funds that had done very well in the crash and consistent since 2000, merkx and hstrx, however, both went flat and hstrx declined 8% last year but I also had a prpfx position and a lot of cash so I ended up with a 2.5% gain each of the last two years.  After missing the last 45% in stock gains, I was nervous about getting in at the top, having the drop and losing all over again. I am in the classic rock and a hard place that everyone is in who exited 100% of their stocks. All of this proves why the PP works. Not to mention the stress I have had, watching and reading daily about what an idiot I was and wondering when to get in. 

[rickb]

Even if you go all in, you're only talking about 25% of your total - so if stocks go down by 50% from here and everything else stays the same you're talking about a 12.5% loss.  But if stocks go down by 50% what is more likely is that either long term bonds or gold (or both) will go up and your overall portfolio will incur less than a 12.5% loss (perhaps even a gain).  For example, per Craig's historical returns blog in 2008 stocks were down 37% for the year but the PP was down only 0.7%.

Focus on the sausage.  Not what's in it. 

[tnt]

Another voice of reason, thanks rickb

[mgtow]

I am in the same boat.  I'm tempted to buy the stock portion in November.  There is some evidence supporting "Sell in May and go away"