The Trend is Your Friend if you know what it is

[portart]

You can lose a lot of money bucking and betting against the trend. For the last few years the trend is stocks up, gold down. Each time you got a head fake and bet on the trend changing, you got your head handed to you. Since Jan 1st, it's been stocks down, gold up. I have made some nice change and betting (for the umpteenth time) on GDX and GDXR and gold as well. The profits have been swift and rewarding. However, timing a trend change is majorly difficult and could this be another head fake? What do you think? Has the trend changed?

[dualstow]

Seems like a lot of work for gains that are taxed at short-term rates.

I did a little of it with Chinese stocks but I tried to keep it to tax-deferred. It was such a small nibble that it's really for the psychological benefit, I suppose. Nothing like your 50K gain.

[Kshartle]

You can lose a lot of money bucking and betting against the trend. For the last few years the trend is stocks up, gold down. Each time you got a head fake and bet on the trend changing, you got your head handed to you. Since Jan 1st, it's been stocks down, gold up. I have made some nice change and betting (for the umpteenth time) on GDX and GDXR and gold as well. The profits have been swift and rewarding. However, timing a trend change is majorly difficult and could this be another head fake? What do you think? Has the trend changed?

I think the failure of Gold to break the the June lows in Dec signals we are in a sideways trend. Until we break and consolidate above $1,450 we'll be in a sideways trend. The way I look at it, $1,430 or so is the highest swing move after hitting the low. We've re-tested the low and it held....now we are sideways until we break $1430-$1450. That will mean a higher low and a higher high...the definition of an uptrend to me....on the weekly charts. I couldn't care less about the daily charts.

The S&P is still in an uptrend until it breaks below $1,700. There is no way to know if this is just a pull back or a trend change. it would then need to post a lower high then a lower low to confirm a downtrend.

[portart]

Yes, the technicals are out there. However, even they can be deceiving. What about your best guess based on what you are seeing. They are saying they are cutting the easing no matter what and I personally think that's been the catalyst from what we have seen in the trend changing, other then tax selling of losses at the end of the year w/fresh money speculating.

Usually though when the market turns, it never lets you know when or why. When it turns for a reason, the trend usually goes back on track once the event is done. At least that is what I have observed. More likely stuff just tops out and runs out of gas. Hard to know if we have reached that point. I am staying with PP anyway. I don't try to outsmart the market. This more applies to my VP.

[Kshartle]

Yes, the technicals are out there. However, even they can be deceiving. What about your best guess based on what you are seeing. They are saying they are cutting the easing no matter what and I personally think that's been the catalyst from what we have seen in the trend changing, other then tax selling of losses at the end of the year w/fresh money speculating.

Usually though when the market turns, it never lets you know when or why. When it turns for a reason, the trend usually goes back on track once the event is done. At least that is what I have observed. More likely stuff just tops out and runs out of gas. Hard to know if we have reached that point. I am staying with PP anyway. I don't try to outsmart the market. This more applies to my VP.

I don't think they're going to cut the easing and if they actually do it will very temporary.

I think the major Gold bull market is resuming it's uptrend and stocks will probably continue up in the long run but not in real terms.

I don't see the money printing stopping until everyone is howling about inflation. The opposite is happening now. The government/media is trying to sell the idea that it's lack of inflation that is causing us problems. This is a very hard lie to sell but they are trying every single day to further that idea. I think they are laying the foundation for even more inflation.

That being said.....I own both gold/silver and global stocks and gold mining stocks in sort of a three-way split with global stocks the largest piece and gold miners coming in second.