Gold Vs. LTTs

[AdamA]

Just curious to see what people think.

[MediumTex]

I would say gold.

Long term treasuries have already pulled back quite a bit from where they were last fall and at the end of 2008.

[Wonk]

As you know, I'm heavily committed in the PM sector.  I still think gold will correct 10% before LTT do the same.  Right now, gold is trading 16% above its 200d moving average.  We're in a seasonally strong period, but July/August are the slowest.  I'm expecting a pullback to about 5% of the moving average at some point in the next 3-4 months--so there's your 10%.

Don't forget LTT's have a strong bid at the margin for now.  I don't see that ship sailing before gold's.

[6 Iron]

As I was about to select gold, I went with long term treasuries, based on my skill as a market prognosticator and the Costanza opposite principle.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3b ... ata_player

[Coffee]

I love that.

I remember reading (I think it was Clement Stone) where he says: Even if you think you're a loser, you're not.  As a sperm, you beat out hundreds of thousands of other sperm in a race to become human and your genetics are the winning result of 10,000 years of survival.

Now where's my medal?

[AdamA]

As I was about to select gold, I went with long term treasuries, based on my skill as a market prognosticator and the Costanza opposite principle.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3b ... ata_player

Definitely in the top 5 of Seinfeld episodes.

[Maestro G]

FWIW,

Decision Moose has just switched to gold as of 4/29. Had been in domestic small cap since December.

Maestro G

[AdamA]

FWIW,

Decision Moose has just switched to gold as of 4/29. Had been in domestic small cap since December.

Maestro G

Yes, and there are definitely more television and internet ads for gold vendors than there were a few years ago.  I think gold still has a ways to go, though, b/c I haven't heard the type of stuff in the mainstream financial media that implies a top.

When I turn on CNBC and hear universal agreement that everyone should hold at least a "small amount" of gold in their portfolio, I would start to watch for a drop.

Right now these guys (CNBC et all) still act like gold is a terrible investment. 

[dualstow]

My answer is, I don't know.