PP investors--stay the course

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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buddtholomew
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by buddtholomew »

I continue to doubt the PP and then all of a sudden it begins to work as expected. I recall a comment from Craig to the effect that the PP works like a rudder on a ship. Its a great analogy.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
OverTaxed
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by OverTaxed »

Outside of the first few days, my PP has been down every single day since I started it earlier this year. I am currently down 3%.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Reub »

I'm guessing that it was up about 1.5% today, halving your paper loss?
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Shadow »

OverTaxed wrote: Outside of the first few days, my PP has been down every single day since I started it earlier this year. I am currently down 3%.
What a like about the PP is that it is basically a defense first investing strategy. Protecting you against catastrophic loss during any economic cycle, in effect saving you from yourself. Epic gains are not what HB intended
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by OverTaxed »

Reub wrote: I'm guessing that it was up about 1.5% today, halving your paper loss?
I am invested in FLBIX, FSTMX, and IAU and I don't track day over day movements so I can't say. I purchased and read the new book, so I should know better, right?  :P Unfortunately, it's still frustrating having started my PP in early May and having several months straight in the red right after. Those kind of results just don't provide a lot of confidence as a new(ish) investor.
Last edited by OverTaxed on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
frommi
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by frommi »

Be prepared for more pain when QE finally stops. And it will someday, its only a matter of when not if.
Currently it looks like all assets have a little synchronized, which is really bad for the PP. (Because whats the purpose of diversification?)
I can`t really see how 100% stocks can fail in the next 12 month, because as long as QE is running stocks will run up. And when it stops this means the economy is running on full steam. (otherwise the FED won`t stop it). But ignore me, i am just a silly speculator.  ;D
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

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frommi wrote: I can`t really see how 100% stocks can fail in the next 12 month, because as long as QE is running stocks will run up.
let's come back in a year and see how well the prediction has held up.  :)
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Libertarian666 »

frommi wrote: Be prepared for more pain when QE finally stops. And it will someday, its only a matter of when not if.
Currently it looks like all assets have a little synchronized, which is really bad for the PP. (Because whats the purpose of diversification?)
I can`t really see how 100% stocks can fail in the next 12 month, because as long as QE is running stocks will run up. And when it stops this means the economy is running on full steam. (otherwise the FED won`t stop it). But ignore me, i am just a silly speculator.  ;D
IMO, they will stop only when it doesn't matter because no one wants their funny money any more.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

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OverTaxed wrote: I am invested in FLBIX, FSTMX, and IAU and I don't track day over day movements so I can't say. I purchased and read the new book, so I should know better, right?  :P Unfortunately, it's still frustrating having started my PP in early May and having several months straight in the red right after. Those kind of results just don't provide a lot of confidence as a new(ish) investor.
I set up my dad's p.p. at an untimely...time, and it's been below breakeven most of the time.
I'm glad he's being patient with me.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by dragoncar »

dualstow wrote:
OverTaxed wrote: I am invested in FLBIX, FSTMX, and IAU and I don't track day over day movements so I can't say. I purchased and read the new book, so I should know better, right?  :P Unfortunately, it's still frustrating having started my PP in early May and having several months straight in the red right after. Those kind of results just don't provide a lot of confidence as a new(ish) investor.
I set up my dad's p.p. at an untimely...time, and it's been below breakeven most of the time.
I'm glad he's being patient with me.
Haha same here although I think he missed a rebalance
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Straight Ays »

The way the market has been acting convinced me to go even more "pure" with PP.  I just bought my first I bond and my first actual 30 year bond (through a broker, so not 100% pure).  And I'm planning on continuing buying bond direct from here on out.  I was getting nervous holding TLT and EDV only.  By buying the bonds directly I felt more diversified.  I guess because they aren't an ETF.  As the original post said, it's a litmus test and I have my answer. 
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Pointedstick »

It appears to me that today the PP beat both the SP500 index and a 60/40 portfolio. ;)
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by buddtholomew »

I am honored to report that my PP is in the black (green) by .10% after today's performance. I finally noticed that the YTD conditional formatting color did not match the other green values in my spreadsheet.  It had always been red.  ;)
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by buddtholomew »

easy come, easy go. Back in the red. Board has been awfully quiet lately...
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Bean »

buddtholomew wrote: easy come, easy go. Back in the red. Board has been awfully quiet lately...
The amount of oversight in both time and brainpower to spend watching it could earn you money elsewhere.  The point of an investment portfolio is free time, if you want to micro manage it, invest in yourself and go buy a business and run it.
“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.� ~Talmud
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by MediumTex »

buddtholomew wrote: easy come, easy go. Back in the red. Board has been awfully quiet lately...
Dang!

I missed celebrating with you yesterday.
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by buddtholomew »

MediumTex wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: easy come, easy go. Back in the red. Board has been awfully quiet lately...
Dang!

I missed celebrating with you yesterday.
We are sure to have another opportunity to celebrate soon.

Bean, what makes you think that I am not a small business owner; operating one's own business is not for everyone and has nothing to do with checking investment returns. I do agree that checking less frequently is better for your health.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by dragoncar »

Bean wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: easy come, easy go. Back in the red. Board has been awfully quiet lately...
The amount of oversight in both time and brainpower to spend watching it could earn you money elsewhere.  The point of an investment portfolio is free time, if you want to micro manage it, invest in yourself and go buy a business and run it.
It takes about 30 sec to check the portfolio, and another 30 sec to complain here.  It's not very time consuming, but it is somewhat cathartic.
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Bean
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Bean »

I have no idea if my portfolio went up or down today, that is pretty relaxing.

Seriously though, you trusted enough to invest in the PP and should have set your exit criteria on entry.  Then you stick to it, unless there the reason for starting is gone or a need arises to adjust your exit criteria.

Was one of your reason for the PP, that it was worry free?  Because any crazy scenario I can come up with, the PP is safer than most other portfolios out there, while returning a comparable CAGR to other choices.
“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.� ~Talmud
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by buddtholomew »

Bean wrote: I have no idea if my portfolio went up or down today, that is pretty relaxing.

Seriously though, you trusted enough to invest in the PP and should have set your exit criteria on entry.  Then you stick to it, unless there the reason for starting is gone or a need arises to adjust your exit criteria.

Was one of your reason for the PP, that it was worry free?  Because any crazy scenario I can come up with, the PP is safer than most other portfolios out there, while returning a comparable CAGR to other choices.
Certainly valid points and I strive to achieve the "zen-like" peace you have mastered.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by dragoncar »

Bean wrote: I have no idea if my portfolio went up or down today, that is pretty relaxing.

Seriously though, you trusted enough to invest in the PP and should have set your exit criteria on entry.  Then you stick to it, unless there the reason for starting is gone or a need arises to adjust your exit criteria.

Was one of your reason for the PP, that it was worry free?  Because any crazy scenario I can come up with, the PP is safer than most other portfolios out there, while returning a comparable CAGR to other choices.
I set my complaining threshold higher than my exit position
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Bean
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Bean »

buddtholomew wrote: Certainly valid points and I strive to achieve the "zen-like" peace you have mastered.
I think of the passive investment exercise like boiling water.  No matter how much you watch it, it probably won't go any faster.
“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.� ~Talmud
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by annieB »

"I like to watch"
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by Kshartle »

annieB wrote: "I like to watch"
Many do but don't admit it.
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Re: PP investors--stay the course

Post by dragoncar »

Kshartle wrote:
annieB wrote: "I like to watch"
Many do but don't admit it.
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