Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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LC475
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Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

Hi!  I am new here, but have enjoyed listening to many of the old Harry Browne Money Shows and reading up on things on CrawlingRoad.  I would like to implement the Permanent Portfolio strategy, and just want to figure out the best way to do it.  With a standard 401k account of about $50,000, I was thinking of doing the following:

Sell the existing mutual fund that 100% of the funds are invested in (Fidelity Freedom® Index 2050 Fund - Class W)
Put 33% ($16, 600) into Spartan® Total Market Index Fund, FSTMX.
Put 33% ($16, 600) into IShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond, TLT
Put 33% ($16, 600) IShares Short Treasury Bond, SHV.
Separately, buy enough gold coins to constitute $16,600 worth.

Is that a good way to do it?  See any possibilities for improvement?

I'm told that with the standard 401k I only pay tax upon withdrawal, right?  So I can make as many trades as I want with no tax consequences as long as it's within the 401k, right?  So basically, does it matter how I do this for tax purposes?  If so, could you suggest a better way of doing it?

Questions on FSTMX:  What is the difference between Investor Class and Class F?  The Freedom Index holds FSTMX in Class F form, which says it has a lower expense ratio, of 0.046% same for both net and gross.  Can I buy that one directly, or only Investor Class which has expense ratio of 0.10%?

On TLT: Can I just buy Treasuries directly?  Harry Browne was always saying that was the best way, but can I do it with Fidelity, and what would the advantages (and disadvantages) of that be, vs. TLT?

SHV: Same kind of question as for TLT, above.  Can I just buy the stuff directly, and is that better, or is the fund easier and better?

Any advice I'm not even smart enough to have thought to ask about, feel free to offer.  ;D

Hey, thanks so much!  I hope to get this set up ASAP!
Last edited by LC475 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rhymenocerous
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by rhymenocerous »

401ks all have different rules depending on the employer's plan, so you will have to research what's available to you.  If you are only investing in a 401k and have access to the iShares products, you could invest in IAU, which is a gold ETF. 

If you have a brokerage option, meaning you can buy whatever funds you want, then you might be able to buy treasuries directly.  The benefit of this is that you save the expense ratio and know exactly what your holdings are (no loaning out bonds for example).

SHV is a fine holding for t-bills, but you might also want to consider SHY, which extends the maturity to 1-3 years.

For FSTMX the class you are able to buy is probably dependent upon what you 401k offers.  Many 401ks offer institutional shares since they have so much money, so you might have access to the one with the lower expense ratio.

Some people like to split up their stock portion by adding an international fund.

If possible, I would start maxing out an IRA as well, which is $5.5k per year.  Read up on the differences between Roth and Traditional.  You can hold anything you want in here, so it may help you round out parts of your PP that are restricted by your 401k.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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Regarding TLT, for anyone who possibly can I'd strongly recommend buying individual long term treasury bonds.  If you have a brokerage option in your 401K, you can probably do this and it's probably not hard at all (there's a tutorial for how to do this at Fidelity, see http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/bo ... -tutorial/).  For more on why I'm suggesting individual bonds rather than TLT, see this thread http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/bo ... d-harmful/ .  If you absolutely must buy a fund, I suspect Vanguard's VUSTX is considerably safer than TLT.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

rhymenocerous wrote:401ks all have different rules depending on the employer's plan, so you will have to research what's available to you.  If you are only investing in a 401k and have access to the iShares products, you could invest in IAU, which is a gold ETF. 

If you have a brokerage option, meaning you can buy whatever funds you want, then you might be able to buy treasuries directly.  The benefit of this is that you save the expense ratio and know exactly what your holdings are (no loaning out bonds for example).
I think I'm in a good situation.  I don't think there's too many restrictions.  I need to sit down with the Fidelity people and make sure what I can do, but I think the brokerage option is a likely possibility.  Mainly I want to be all prepared and know exactly what I want when I sit down with them.

To me, getting a gold ETF defeats some of the purposes of the gold portion by eliminating some of the unique properties it has.  Harry Browne would often talk about this.  It is the one asset in the portfolio that isn't just paper/electronic promises.  It's the asset you can own directly, yourself, no third-party risk.  Craig R. has featured on his blog recently the idea of "off-spreadsheet risk," meaning conditions and events which do not show up on a spreadsheet.  If you were, say, a Ukrainian farmer in 1932, or a German Jehovah's Witness between 1933 and 1945, gold coins were something you could stick in the sole of your shoe and escape with out of the country.  All your other assets would possibly be seized and you'd have to just write off.

Now these are ridiculously extreme cases, and things of that type are not eventualities worth preparing for in any comprehensive way, in my opinion, but as Harry said, "you just never know," and the fact remains that physical gold, either in your hand or outside your country, is a good way to protect wealth in extreme circumstances.  And as the Boy Scouts say: "Be Prepared."  Even in less-extreme circumstances, which are much, much more likely to occur, physical gold can be a good way to protect wealth, and have some advantages over gold ETFs, I think.  Holding a gold ETF introduces some risk.  Not much risk; probably hardly any.  But all else equal, why assume the risk?  I think owning the gold myself is better.
SHV is a fine holding for t-bills, but you might also want to consider SHY, which extends the maturity to 1-3 years.
Ahh, this is the one tweak Craig R. has made to the portfolio, right?  OK, thanks for the symbol!  I definitely think that's an option.  As you can tell from above, I've really bought into the "orthodox" Harry Browne thinking, but that does not mean I'm not open to improvement as well.  I think SHY might be the best thing for the cash portion.  Would there be any downsides?
For FSTMX the class you are able to buy is probably dependent upon what you 401k offers.  Many 401ks offer institutional shares since they have so much money, so you might have access to the one with the lower expense ratio.
Excellent.  Thanks!
Some people like to split up their stock portion by adding an international fund.
Do Harry Browne or Craig recommend that?  Wouldn't that introduce currency risk?  I can see reasons that doing that might undermine the PP on a deep, theoretical level.  But I am open to learning more, if you think it is a better option.  Please make your case.
If possible, I would start maxing out an IRA as well, which is $5.5k per year.  Read up on the differences between Roth and Traditional.  You can hold anything you want in here, so it may help you round out parts of your PP that are restricted by your 401k.
See, this area is where I have mass confusion.  I don't even understand the difference between a 401k and an IRA.  :o  I was under the impression that a 401k was a type of IRA.  ::)

Ah well, I'm confident I'll figure it out eventually!
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

rickb wrote: Regarding TLT, for anyone who possibly can I'd strongly recommend buying individual long term treasury bonds.  If you have a brokerage option in your 401K, you can probably do this and it's probably not hard at all (there's a tutorial for how to do this at Fidelity, see http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/bo ... -tutorial/).  For more on why I'm suggesting individual bonds rather than TLT, see this thread http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/bo ... d-harmful/ .  If you absolutely must buy a fund, I suspect Vanguard's VUSTX is considerably safer than TLT.
Aha. I went through that thread.  This is terrific advice.  This is the kind of stuff I need to know but have no idea about!  I take it that the SHV and SHY do not have the same kind of problems... or do they?  Would there be any advantage, and is it even possible, to buying the cash portion directly, too?

Thank you very much for the link to the tutorial.

And thank you, thank you, thank you, rhymenocerous and rickb both for your kind consideration.  I appreciate your time and expertise.
Last edited by LC475 on Wed Oct 09, 2013 8:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by rhymenocerous »

I understand the desire to hold physical gold outside of your 401k, but it wasn't clear to me whether or not you are sacrificing space in your 401k to do it.  In other words, are you giving up the tax-deferral benefits of the 401k (meaning you are contributing less than $17.5k and paying more taxes up front) in order to buy gold in a taxable account?

Also, when you are exploring the brokerage options in your 401k, make sure you understand all of the fees that are in place.  Sometimes there's a high fee every time you buy certain funds, which makes bi-weekly contributions cost prohibitive.  You might instead have to keep your money in cash or something until you accumulate enough to make the purchase worthwhile.

International funds do have currency risk, but I have access to Vanguards Total International Stock fund in my 401k, which invests in something like 6,000 companies at a very low cost.  I've gone back and forth on this issue (which probably means it's fairly insignificant), and in the end, I decided I wanted to participate in the global markets.  Most people believe there's a sweet spot whereby adding international stocks adds some diversification to your portfolio.  I limit international to 20% of my stock allocation, or 5% of my total portfolio.

The rules for 401ks and IRAs can be very complicated to explain.  The short answer is that the limit for a 401k is $17.5k and the limit for an IRA is $5.5k (this is periodically increased every few years).  An IRA can either be "Traditional" (funded with pre-tax dollars) or "Roth" (funded with post-tax dollars).  Most 401ks are pre-tax only, but some employers are offering the Roth option as well.  This usually only makes sense if you are in the lowest or highest tax bracket (but not in between).

If you are contributing more than $17.5k + $5.5k = $23k to retirement per year (or $46k if you have a spouse), then I can discuss some of the finer points of the 401k that might be available to you before investing in a taxable account.  Basically, I think you should be maxing out all tax-advantaged space first before considering opening a taxable account. 
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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rhymenocerous wrote:I think you should be maxing out all tax-advantaged space first before considering opening a taxable account.
Let me first clarify that I have no real knowledge of the US pension system.
I understand that the 401K is a system by which you defer taxes on income to a later point in life. Correct?

If so, there are at least 2 dangers to the 401K:
a) It is possible that the govt "for the good of the people" will confiscate all 401K's and turn them into a govt run entity.
b) Taxes change all the time, it is entirely possible that the taxes in the future will be much higher than today.

Like I said, I do not know the US situation. But here in the Netherlands I make it a point to never consider the (long term) tax implications if these are supposed to be favorable.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by rhymenocerous »

Rien wrote: Let me first clarify that I have no real knowledge of the US pension system.
I understand that the 401K is a system by which you defer taxes on income to a later point in life. Correct?

If so, there are at least 2 dangers to the 401K:
a) It is possible that the govt "for the good of the people" will confiscate all 401K's and turn them into a govt run entity.
b) Taxes change all the time, it is entirely possible that the taxes in the future will be much higher than today.

Like I said, I do not know the US situation. But here in the Netherlands I make it a point to never consider the (long term) tax implications if these are supposed to be favorable.
Even if taxes are higher in the future it can still be a good idea to defer them now.  That's because you defer taxes at your marginal rate, but fill up certain "buckets" with the money you withdraw.  So you might defer paying 25% tax up front on the money you put into a 401k.  When you withdraw the money, you might pay 0% tax on the first $10k, 10% tax on the the next $10k, 15% tax on the next $20k, etc.  This is a good deal if you don't have a pension filling up these lower buckets.  Social Security might fill up some of them, but you can defer taking that until you are 70, or maybe you retire early.  In the end, you end up paying little or no taxes on some of the money you withdraw, so the effective rate is lower than paying the tax up front.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Rien »

rhymenocerous wrote: True, but the future is unknowable.
It is, but certain things are already known: the future deficit of the US govt is one of them. They will not be able to pay out the promises made. How they will "solve" this problem is up for grabs. Just be sure to prevent them from grabbing yours.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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LC475 wrote: I take it that the SHV and SHY do not have the same kind of problems... or do they?  Would there be any advantage, and is it even possible, to buying the cash portion directly, too?
TLT, SHV, and SHY are all run by Black Rock, and all have similar language in their prospectuses allowing up to 1/3 of their assets to be loaned out (this amount has been exceeded on a net asset basis by TLT, presumably due to increases in the value of assets already loaned out).  The amount that is currently loaned out can be determined by reading the semi-annual reports - as of August 2012 it appears none of the assets of SHV or SHY were loaned out (while over 40% of TLT's assets were). 

The way the loans work is that the borrower has to put up 100% cash collateral (what form of "cash" I don't know), marked to market every day, and the fund then reinvests this cash pretty much however they want.  In the case of TLT it's mostly Black Rock's institutional (non-treasury backed) money market funds.  It's hard to think of an incentive for anyone to borrow assets from SHV or SHY (the general motivation is to short the borrowed asset) - although if there were an incentive Black Rock would clearly loan these out in a heartbeat.

I think the bottom line is that SHV and SHY do not currently have the same sort of exposure as TLT, but there's no guarantee they won't some time in the future.

It's definitely possible to buy short term treasuries for the cash portion of the PP (some folks here do this).  The process is the same as buying long term treasuries, and at least Fidelity can automatically reinvest treasuries as they mature.  The fewer intermediaries between you and your assets the better, so directly buying short term treasuries from the treasury using a TreasuryDIrect account (this may not be possible with a retirement account) is (perhaps only marginally) better than directly buying short term treasuries through a brokerage, which is (perhaps only marginally) better than using a treasury backed MM, which is in turn (again, perhaps only marginally) better than using an ETF like SHV or SHY.  Mutual funds, including money market funds, are in general better than ETFs because mutual funds have fewer moving parts, and I'm not sure but I suspect most treasury-backed MM's don't even allow their assets to be loaned out (but most treasury-backed MMs are currently closed to new investors).  The differences here may be small, but they definitely exist.  As you get further away from direct ownership you accrue more risks.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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All investment products are compromises to a degree. The iShares ETFs TLT, SHV, SHY (and even Vanguard funds) I have problems with. iShares can do the lending as discussed if I recall. Vanguard also uses repurchase agreements and has been known to fill their "treasury" funds up with mortgages guaranteed by the governments. But this is not the same as using pure treasury bonds.

IMO. Buying long-term bonds and holding directly is easy to do and most bond desks can help you do it. But there are certain minimums you need to do this and some people don't have that. Also, some people just like to keep things simpler. For those cases the funds are good options and much better than doing nothing.

Like others, I do think there is a risk of a grab for retirement assets in the future. I don't know if it will happen, but it has occurred in enough other countries to cause concern. You have this large block of cash just sitting out there with a target on it. Perhaps they won't grab it directly, but I entirely expect in the future there could be some kind of means-testing and people that saved "too much" will be penalized by lower social security, etc. I don't know that would happen, but I suspect it. Also they could always implement a withdrawal tax that is very steep for portfolios over a certain value. So even if there is a good tax-deferred benefit over time, it could be pilfered on the backend when you go to use it.

These are all hypotheticals, but just throwing that out there.

So I also think it's a good idea to keep some taxable money outside the standard retirement plans, etc. How much and when to do it is very personal. It may make sense to max out your plans each year if your situation warrants it. For instance, some employers do matching of contributions. That's free money and I think would be a bad idea to let it go. But if your employer isn't doing that, then maybe it makes sense to send some to tax-deferred and a smaller amount to taxable? Don't know, again that's personal.

As for gold, I think it's best to keep it outside of tax-deferred and save that space for bonds, stocks and some cash. Some gold can be there in an ETF if you want for rebalancing purposes though for tax management.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

Lots of good advice, guys.

So, craig, it sounds like you are saying maybe don't do the whole cash portion in the 401k, but maybe half in and half out, so my portfolio would look like:

In 401K:

$20,000 FSTMX
$20,000 long bonds
$10,000 treasury bills

Outside 401k:

$10,000 treasury bills
$20,000 gold coins

Of course, that means I need to come up with some additional money to invest to make it all work and balance out ($13,300).  Which is no big problem, but it would take several months, and in the meantime I'd be out-of-balance.

I understand what people are saying about maxing out donations to the 401k, but in the absence of employer matching, is there really any big advantage to directing additional funds into the 401k specifically to buy gold, vs. buying them outside the 401k?  Unless it bumps me into a different bracket or something, I don't see the advantage.  The tax is going to be paid sometime (unless taxes are repealed).  Assuming things go according to plan and I become very wealthy, I will be in a higher bracket in future decades when I'd be withdrawing the funds from the 401k.  So that would be a plus-factor for paying now and burying the gold, far away from the tax-man's hand.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by rickb »

craigr wrote: As for gold, I think it's best to keep it outside of tax-deferred and save that space for bonds, stocks and some cash. Some gold can be there in an ETF if you want for rebalancing purposes though for tax management.
LC475 wrote: I understand what people are saying about maxing out donations to the 401k, but in the absence of employer matching, is there really any big advantage to directing additional funds into the 401k specifically to buy gold, vs. buying them outside the 401k?  Unless it bumps me into a different bracket or something, I don't see the advantage.  The tax is going to be paid sometime (unless taxes are repealed).  Assuming things go according to plan and I become very wealthy, I will be in a higher bracket in future decades when I'd be withdrawing the funds from the 401k.  So that would be a plus-factor for paying now and burying the gold, far away from the tax-man's hand.
Yes you have to pay taxes eventually, and what you'll pay on the ultimate capital growth of your gold will be nearly the same whether you keep gold in or out of a 401K.  If in, then you'll ultimately pay income tax on this growth.  If out, then you'll pay collectibles tax on this growth (currently 28% or your income tax rate, whichever is less).  From this perspective, there's no advantage to keeping gold in a 401K. 

What Craig is suggesting is keeping some gold in your 401K that you'll be able to sell (without paying taxes) for rebalancing purposes.  If your rebalancing involves selling anything in a taxable account, you'll generally end up with a tax bill.  If the selling you do for rebalancing is only in a 401K, then you won't end up with a tax bill due to rebalancing.  You're essentially deferring the taxes, but by doing so you get compound interest in the interim (over a long enough time frame this can be a substantial difference).

Some other considerations - gold in a 401K is definitely trackable and 'in the system".  Physical gold outside a 401K is not.  Gains in gold in the form of GTU (or PHYS), outside a 401K, can be taxed at capital gains rates (currently less than collectibles rates) at the expense of filing an additional tax form every year you own it.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by I Shrugged »

Use physical gold, not in the 401k.  And I agree with Rien.  The pot of 401k money is just too big to go unmolested at some point in the future.  Life is full of controversial and/or offensive things which were once unthinkable.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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LC475 wrote: Lots of good advice, guys.

So, craig, it sounds like you are saying maybe don't do the whole cash portion in the 401k, but maybe half in and half out, so my portfolio would look like:
Really I can't give specifics because I don't know your situation. My general advice though is you should have some funds that allow you to have personal liquidity if you need it.

Basically, if you lost your job, got injured, etc. tomorrow and were out of work could you survive? And could you survive without tapping into your retirement savings and taking a huge penalty hit for withdrawing it?

If you can't, then I think you should have more outside retirement savings built up just in case. What that amount depends on each person. Is six months a good number? Maybe. It depends on you. But I think it's good to have some savings outside of retirement.

Of course that savings though could be in gold that you sell and convert to cash in an emergency as well. But gold is quite volatile so it makes knowing how much you have saved a lot harder. That's why a lot of people might do a hybrid: Have cash on hand for living expenses, but augment it with physical gold while filling up the tax-deferred with bonds, stocks, etc. first.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

OK, guys, at last I am doing it!

I decided to make the 401k a self-contained permanent portfolio, instead of my idea to have some of it in, some of it out.  That just is not as elegant and simple to my brain!  This way, the 401k is a whole Permanent Portfolio unto itself, making it easy to track, easy to think about, etc.  Also, not having *all* of the savings wrapped up in the tax-deferred lockbox seems like a wise policy as well.  Thank you, Craig, for that insight.

So, what I'm doing is:

25% in Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares (VINIX),
OR
5% in Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares (VINIX) and 20% in Spartan Total Market Index Fund - Investor Class (FSTMX).

25% in the longest bonds I can get.  Yes, I can buy them directly!  And no transaction fee.

25% in either short term T-bills or 1-3 year Treasury notes.  Yes, I can buy them directly!  And no transaction fee.

25% in iShares Gold Trust (IAU).  This ETF is also a no transaction fee one, for Fidelity.  I wanted Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), but no-can-do.  If anyone has a better idea for the gold, I'm up for it.

~~~


So, my couple questions left are:

Which one is better for my stocks, VINIX or FSTMX?  VINIX has an expense ratio of 0.04%; FSTMX has one of 0.10%.  VINIX appears to be like a S&P500 index, kind of (maybe?).  Does it actually have the same 500 stocks as the S&P500, can anyone tell?    FSTMX is a total stock market index of some kind; I don't know if it's 5,000 or 3,000 or what.  Despite the higher expense, FSTMX has outperformed VINIX (slightly) in every period listed in the summary.

I am required to have at least 5% of the portfolio in the "standard," non-brokerage-linked portion.  And VINIX is one of the options there.  So at least 5% will have to go in VINIX.  But if FSTMX is better, I can put the remaining 20% in there, for free, with no transaction fee.

My second question: T-Bills or T-Notes?  It seems like all the advantages are tilted towards T-Notes.  Is there anyone that wants to make a case for putting it in the bills instead?  Are there any real advantages to that?

There's my questions.  Feel free to chime in with any other thoughts, criticisms, etc. as well!
Last edited by LC475 on Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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Which one is better for my stocks, VINIX or FSTMX?  VINIX has an expense ratio of 0.04%; FSTMX has one of 0.10%.  VINIX appears to be like a S&P500 index, kind of (maybe?).  Does it actually have the same 500 stocks as the S&P500, can anyone tell?    FSTMX is a total stock market index of some kind; I don't know if it's 5,000 or 3,000 or what.  Despite the higher expense, FSTMX has outperformed VINIX (slightly) in every period listed in the summary.
All other things being equal, go with the cheaper fund.
I am required to have at least 5% of the portfolio in the "standard," non-brokerage-linked portion.  And VINIX is one of the options there.  So at least 5% will have to go in VINIX.  But if FSTMX is better, I can put the remaining 20% in there, for free, with no transaction fee.
Just go with VINIX. Simplicity + cheap is usually a winning combination.
My second question: T-Bills or T-Notes?  It seems like all the advantages are tilted towards T-Notes.  Is there anyone that wants to make a case for putting it in the bills instead?  Are there any real advantages to that?
I have no strong preferences here. T Bills are a bit safer but very short term T Notes are an acceptable near cash for me. This all comes down to your risk tolerances. The shorter the duration, the lower the risk level with respect to interest rates and inflation. T Notes will give you a marginally better return in a deflationary environment though. But if you are worried about rising rates or inflation I would stick with T Bills.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

MangoMan wrote: Are you sure IAU is available without commission from Fidelity? I just logged in to my account there and it is not listed in their table of commission-free ETFs.
The man on the phone told me that it, along with all iShares ETFs, could be bought and sold with no fee.  This is inside a 401k, so I don't know if that may be the difference.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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Ad Orientem wrote: All other things being equal, go with the cheaper fund.
Yes, but the PP book says that a total stock market fund is preferable, so all else is not exactly equal -- FSTMX is a little bit better.  And the commission difference is extremely small: six-hundredths of one percent.  So it comes down to how preferable is a total stock market fund to an index fund?  Is the preferability more than 0.06%, or less?
Just go with VINIX. Simplicity + cheap is usually a winning combination.
Hmm... yes.  Simple would be nice.  I only want to have to log in once a year (or so).  Of course, the difference is between slicing the portfolio in 4 pieces and slicing it in 5, so both are extremely simple.
My second question: T-Bills or T-Notes?  It seems like all the advantages are tilted towards T-Notes.  Is there anyone that wants to make a case for putting it in the bills instead?  Are there any real advantages to that?
I have no strong preferences here. T Bills are a bit safer but very short term T Notes are an acceptable near cash for me. This all comes down to your risk tolerances. The shorter the duration, the lower the risk level with respect to interest rates and inflation. T Notes will give you a marginally better return in a deflationary environment though. But if you are worried about rising rates or inflation I would stick with T Bills.
Thank you very much for your thoughts, Ad Orientem.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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MangoMan wrote: Are you sure IAU is available without commission from Fidelity? I just logged in to my account there and it is not listed in their table of commission-free ETFs.
Thank you so much for checking this, MangoMan!!  I spoke to someone else on the phone today and checked to make sure it was free, due to your words of caution.  Sure enough, IAU is not commission-free.  The man I spoke to earlier was wrong -- he must have incorrectly assumed all iShares were free because so many are.

But it's only $8, and I don't see any better option.  It sounds like you have Fidelity; is there something better which you use for gold?
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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MangoMan wrote:
LC475 wrote:
MangoMan wrote: Are you sure IAU is available without commission from Fidelity? I just logged in to my account there and it is not listed in their table of commission-free ETFs.
Thank you so much for checking this, MangoMan!!  I spoke to someone else on the phone today and checked to make sure it was free, due to your words of caution.  Sure enough, IAU is not commission-free.  The man I spoke to earlier was wrong -- he must have incorrectly assumed all iShares were free because so many are.

But it's only $8, and I don't see any better option.  It sounds like you have Fidelity; is there something better which you use for gold?
You're welcome.

Schwab offers SGOL commission-free, but SGOL has a higher ER [0.39 vs 0.25 for IAU]. I know of no other free gold trades, but there are other brokers with lower commissions such as Just2Trade, OptionsHouse and TradeKing. Also Vanguard has some good commission deals if you don't mind their clunky trading platform and keep enough $ on deposit there.
Well, this is a 401k, at a current employer, and so I can't go switching around which broker handles it.  It's at Fidelity and that's it (unless the employer changes, at least, that's my understanding).  The expense is probably a bigger deal than the one-time trade fee, if I only buy once every couple years, and I think it only makes sense to do so (buy as infrequently as possible, that is).  0.25 of $7,500 is $18.75, so it's going to be charging me an $18.75 fee every year, year in and year out.  Bumping that fee up to 0.39% increases that annual fee by $10.50, to 29.50.

So anyway, there is my reasoning and because of it I today went ahead and bought IAU.  So now my portfolio is:

23% 30 year bonds, owned directly
25% IAU
5% VINIX

The buy for 20% FSTMX is still open and pending.  I don't know why that's taking so long.
And then apparently I have to wait until Thursday for the next Treasury Auction to buy the T-notes and set them up to automatically re-buy as they expire.  The lady told me Fidelity can't do "auto-rollover" they call it with notes (nor bonds, nor bills) bought on the secondary market.  Who knew!

Anyway, come Thursday, I should be all set with this 401k retirement account.  At least, the initial setup will be done.

Then, I need to decide how to allocate the contributions coming in.  They can divvy things into mutual funds for free, but not to ETFs, I think.  So I'm thinking I'll maybe have everything go into the stock market components, and then re-balance every year out of them into whatever needs it.  That means that stocks will always be above 25%, except after a big crash.  I think I'm OK with that, though.  I think I would be OK with any of the components being the "consistently above 25%" component except for cash, simply because this is a tax-deffered lockbox and so the cash is just as useless for emergency purposes as all the other components, which eliminates a major reason to hold it, in my opinion.  It basically is just a drag on the return, albeit a nice, safe one, and so I'd rather keep it in the 15-25% range.

Thoughts?  Wisdom?  Blinding insights?
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Ad Orientem »

I for one and impressed at being able to make a 401K work as a PP. Most 401Ks are just not PP compatible. My usual advice with them is to just go with a Boglehead portfolio and do the PP in your IRA and taxable accounts.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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LC475 wrote: 25% IAU
Some PP investors who have most of their gold in ETF form protect themselves against the possibility of a gold ETF going belly up by holding two or more funds (for example, IAU and SGOL). The difference between losing 25% of your wealth vs. only 12.5% is pretty big.

If you decide diversifying across two gold ETFs might help you, too, sleep a little better, you could direct new gold contributions into a different ETF until you have about equal amounts in both funds. That way you wouldn't have to sell any of what you've already bought.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

Post by LC475 »

At last!  Treasury orders take a long time to go through, apparently.  My 401k portfolio is now:

25% stocks -- 20% FSTMX, 5% VINIX and growing monthly
23% bonds -- 30 year, owned directly
27% cash -- 23% in T-bills owned directly, 4% in Fidelity's money market
25% gold -- IAU

Everything is just as it should be.  I have "set it" and now I can "forget it."  We'll see how it's doing in 6 months or a year from now, I guess.

As for outside the 401k, I'm heavy in cash and gold coins, but it's not enough money to worry about.  When I'm rich, I'll set up another PP out in taxable space.

Thanks to everyone for your thoughts and help.
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Re: Implementing the Permanent Portfolio

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Congrats and good luck!
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