Taper Predictions?

[buddtholomew]

I predict that the FED does not taper tomorrow and the PP assets will perform as follows:

SPY - Higher
GLD - Flat to slightly higher
TLT - Higher
SHV - Flat to slightly higher

[murphy_p_t]

i concur

[Bean]

Correction, no taper, the buying continues

SPY - Up
GLD - Down
TLT - Up
SHV - no real movement

[buddtholomew]

Intetesting, I would have thought that my opinion was in the minority.

[gap]

My 2 cents

Mild taper - 70-75B

SPY up
GLD down
TLT  very slightly up
SHV/SHY very little change

PP action to take  - ignore

[buddtholomew]

My 2 cents

Mild taper - 70-75B

SPY up
GLD down
TLT  very slightly up
SHV/SHY very little change

PP action to take  - ignore

General consensus is a 10-15B taper or taper lite as radio talk show hosts and pundits have termed it.

[notsheigetz]

These predictions are not my own. They were generated using random.org.

Taper = Yes 

SPY  no change
GLD down
TLT  down
SHV up

[gap]

"General consensus is a 10-15B taper or taper lite as radio talk show hosts and pundits have termed it."... Buddtholmew

Just to be clear, by Mild Taper I meant the buy backs will taper down to 70- 75B from about 80B+ today

[buddtholomew]

"Whatever happens, the sun will rise and my dog will want to go for a walk." — cowboyhat

The sun may rise, but your dog may not. Hey, look at the PP, it didn't rise either.

[Gumby]

"Whatever happens, the sun will rise and my dog will want to go for a walk." — cowboyhat

The sun may rise, but your dog may not. Hey, look at the PP, it didn't rise either.

The difference between you and me is that I had a beautiful morning.... walking my dog

Do yourself a favor and learn to manage your financial stress.

[buddtholomew]

"Whatever happens, the sun will rise and my dog will want to go for a walk." — cowboyhat

The sun may rise, but your dog may not. Hey, look at the PP, it didn't rise either.

The difference between you and me is that I had a beautiful morning.... walking my dog

Do yourself a favor and learn to manage your financial stress.

I had a beautiful morning as well, working out and reading the news over a cappuccino. I'm not stressed out, but let's stick to the topic at hand. The FED's taper and the impact on the PP. Glad you enjoyed your morning as well.

[Gumby]

I'm not stressed out

Well, that's what a stressed out person might say

Whereas, I would say that the fact that you are annoyed at your portfolio going down -0.24% today, and bringing my dog into it, is the definition of financial stress.

but let's stick to the topic at hand. The FED's taper and the impact on the PP.

Time will tell and nobody knows. No sense in worrying about our predictions that probably won't come true.

[buddtholomew]

I'm not stressed out

Well, that's what a stressed out person might say

Whereas, I would say that the fact that you are annoyed at your portfolio going down -0.24% today, and bringing my dog into it, is the definition of financial stress.

but let's stick to the topic at hand. The FED's taper and the impact on the PP.

Time will tell and nobody knows. No sense in worrying about our predictions that probably won't come true.

You brought your dog into the conversation, not me. Don't respond to the thread if you are not interested in predictions. No one is forcing you. Hey, I'm up 8% YTD, so no stress here :-)

[buddtholomew]

"Whatever happens, the sun will rise and my dog will want to go for a walk." — cowboyhat

The sun may rise, but your dog may not. Hey, look at the PP, it didn't rise either.

True.  And when my dog dies, I'll be sad.  But my dog will die one day irrespective of my predictions about his exact time and manner of death.

Also, if I spend the night poking my dog because I'm antsy about whether or not he'll be awake at 7 AM, neither of us will have gotten any sleep.  Cranky me, cranky dog.  Who wants that?

=====================

I'll stop.  I understand that predictions can be fun.  But when the predictions are no more accurate than rolling dice, that's not very enjoyable for me.

Nothing personal TennPaGa. I hope you and your dog have a long and healthy life.

[Khisanth]

BOOM.

[buddtholomew]

Gee, no taper...what a surprise, not! We'll see how we close, but assets are performing as follows at 11AM PST

SPY +.6%
GLD +2.4%
TLT +.7%
SHV +.01%

[Reub]

Just for the record:

Gee! It's great to be in the Permanent Portfolio today!



There. I said it.

[buddtholomew]

OK, I'll shut-up now. 

[Reub]

Budd, I'm just saying that the markets can drive you crazy. Although I watch the day-to-day movements, I believe in the long term strategy enough to just go with it.

Additionally, Harry Browne's tenet that the future is unknowable was once again proven to be true when Bernanke double-crossed the "experts" by not tapering.

[buddtholomew]

Budd, I'm just saying that the markets can drive you crazy. Although I watch the day-to-day movements, I believe in the long term strategy enough to just go with it.

Additionally, Harry Browne's tenet that the future is unknowable was once again proven to be true when Bernanke double-crossed the "experts" by not tapering.

I began investing in the PP during the recent economic recovery (2011 time frame, post 2008) and, if memory serves me correctly, did not encounter a period of negative returns until earlier this year. Suffering from recency bias, I expected portfolio gains and strongly believed that years with negative returns were outliers. I am drawn to the portfolio for all its merits and days like today reinforce that the future is unknowable (although I did predict no taper). I am not at the point where I can set it and forget it, but hope to reach that zen-like state soon. I feel prepared to stay the course now more than ever.

[WildAboutHarry]

And the winner is...

VTI +1.17%
TLT +1.22%
SHY +0.13%
GLD +4.47%

A quadrafecta!

[Pointedstick]

GLD +4.47%

[Coffee]

And the winner is...

VTI +1.17%
TLT +1.22%
SHY +0.13%
GLD +4.47%

A quadrafecta!

Oh my god... somebody tell the dog!

[buddtholomew]

And the winner is...

VTI +1.17%
TLT +1.22%
SHY +0.13%
GLD +4.47%

A quadrafecta!

Oh my god... somebody tell the dog!

I almost fell off the bed laughing...that's funny!

[Thomas Hoog]

I like the dog, maybe he/she wants to become our mascotte ? Does it has a name ?