VP trading diary

[frugal]

you are making my power for daytrading disapear

Stock commissions here are not small, and I don't want to trade futures (too much money involved)

[Thomas Hoog]

they always use futures because futures requires less margin compared to options. Don't  no why, because both are deadly on the downside

[cnh]

So a month has passed.  How're you doing?

[frugal]

So a month has passed.  How're you doing?

hello

i am a bit late, because I was thinking about the strategy and my weapons to beat the market might not be enough.

I am going to open a new account in a new broker but I need more time, to meditate and see what really matters ...

Hug!


hel

[frommi]

Daytrading is like playing poker. Its a zero sum game where the bank/casino allways wins, but you allways loose in the long run. Your edge in the game over the other players must be higher than the spread and the commissions. But you are playing here against machines and traders of banks who act in microseconds. The only reason they make money is because people like you think they can beat them. I tried daytrading for around 5-6 years, and lost more than 20% of my wealth doing it. But i gave up two years ago and will NEVER try it again.
The only reason i understood that i can only loose was because i started playing poker and looked at the mathematics behind the game. Gave up on poker after 6 months, too ).

Investing on the other hand is not a zero sum game (because of money printing and companies paying dividends and interest), so just focus on that. If you really want to boost your returns with a method than just leverage the PP. It gives joy and has a system thats proven for years and gives you more inside for your main game, the PP. And its a kind of investing, too.

[frugal]

Daytrading is like playing poker. Its a zero sum game where the bank/casino allways wins, but you allways loose in the long run. Your edge in the game over the other players must be higher than the spread and the commissions. But you are playing here against machines and traders of banks who act in microseconds. The only reason they make money is because people like you think they can beat them. I tried daytrading for around 5-6 years, and lost more than 20% of my wealth doing it. But i gave up two years ago and will NEVER try it again.
The only reason i understood that i can only loose was because i started playing poker and looked at the mathematics behind the game. Gave up on poker after 6 months, too ).

Investing on the other hand is not a zero sum game (because of money printing and companies paying dividends and interest), so just focus on that. If you really want to boost your returns with a method than just leverage the PP. It gives joy and has a system thats proven for years and gives you more inside for your main game, the PP. And its a kind of investing, too.

Hi frommi,

a) did you have a mechanical strategy for daytrading or was visual and emotional?

b) 5 or 10% of daytraders can do it, so its not impossible and requires special habilities.

[jabba]

You will lose. If I started again I would use the daily chart with preset stop losses and tp. If you have screens open all day you will do something stupid and tinker until you break your own rules.

[frommi]

a) did you have a mechanical strategy for daytrading or was visual and emotional?

I tried both, i was an expert in elliott wave/technical analysis and tried a fixed trading system. The problem is that at some point your emotions get involved, and then a mechanical system is overridden by your own emotions. AND every trading system is doomed to loose its effectiveness the moment you start trading it. Just think about it, when there was a trading system that would work perfectly, why is not everybody using it? And if its working, doesn`t the wide usage of such a system render itself useless, because everybody is doing the same thing, the same moment? And aren`t you with your 15ms internet connections light-years behind the traders/machines with reaction times in the nanosceonds? Backtesting of daytrading strategies often leaves commisions and spread out of the equotation, but these are the biggest drags on your bill. I did monitor my trades and found out that in the end of most years i made around zero money, but commissions/spread left me far behind. Stoplosses won`t safe you either, they can even kill your performance in daytrading when huge gap occur (and they do more often than you think!).

b) 5 or 10% of daytraders can do it, so its not impossible and requires special habilities.

Yes. But only because 95% can`t. 5% of poker players can win longterm, but can you? How much money is it worth to find that out? Emotions with 2k € in the market are not the same as with 20k € in the market, which can evaporate in seconds. I tried to do it with little/playmoney at the start and it worked, but that was like an entry-drug. You get addicted to the daily adrenalin rush when you can win/loose big money. Coming away from it can be as hard as coming away from drugs or alcohol. So in your own interest, just stay away .

[Pointedstick]

b) 5 or 10% of daytraders can do it, so its not impossible and requires special habilities.

There is an enormous difference between "someone can do it" and "I can do it". You have to be honest with yourself and ask and why you think you can be one of the ones who can do it. Know thyself!

[dualstow]

Why not just do it virtually? Don't invest any real money in it. Keep track and see how you do.

[frommi]

Why not just do it virtually? Don't invest any real money in it. Keep track and see how you do.

That doesn`t help. It is like playing poker with playmoney. The game is different when real money is involved, because your emotions come into play.
But i have a little calculation for you. If you have a system which brings you 500 basis points each year and there is only one trade (buy and sell) per day involved, if you miss your trade on average only by 1 basepoint your result is zero (around 250 trading days, 1 miss at sell 1 at buy). Most indices are tradable with 1p spread at CFD oder future brokers, so this miss is practical unavoidable. Add in commissions and the only one that is winning is your broker. And they are the ones that are advertising for trading the most, guess why.

[dualstow]

Why not just do it virtually? Don't invest any real money in it. Keep track and see how you do.

That doesn`t help. It is like playing poker with playmoney. The game is different when real money is involved, because your emotions come into play.

Absolutely, but I figure this could kill two birds with one stone:
a) Frugal has been procrastinating.
b) He could have some fun and when the first big loss hits, maybe he'll give a sigh of relief, call the whole (real) thing off and get back to serious investing.

[frugal]

Thank you all.

It's still a dream so after all the PP process I will try again.

Use the leveraged PP is not daytrading for a living...

[sk55]

just as a FYI,  ameritrade has a pretty cool stock simulator in ThinkorSWIM.  the only catch is that you have to have a real money acccount to get real time quotes on paper trading.

[MediumTex]

This thread reminds me of a "How to ask a girl for a date" thread in a Star Trek forum. 

[frugal]

Sorry I can't find motivation for trading.

Also I didn't find the system with edge to win money.

Maybe one day later...

[frugal]

Sorry I can't find motivation for trading.

Also I didn't find the system with edge to win money.

+1

At least that's how I interpret it.

one thing takes to the other

lack of motivation becase market is too difficult to beat