Family ruined by beanie babies investment

[notsheigetz]

They should have read HB's book about Fail-Safe investing.

I feel sorry for them but I got a kick out of this story because my first wife got into the beanie baby craze for a while assuring me that someday they were going to be worth "a lot of money". I always asked her to define "a lot".

After she died I got rid of lots of junk to lighten my load but I actually carried those beanie babies around with me for a while. One day I took two large plastic garbage bags to the dumpster and said good-bye to them. Too bad I didn't know this family. They probably would have bought them from me.


http://gma.yahoo.com/family-ruined-100k ... money.html

[MediumTex]

I always love the phrase about some random piece of plastic or paper: "One day that's going to be a collector's item."

Every time I hear this, I am tempted to respond:

"It's a collector's item today, and the collector is you.  The most value that item is ever likely to have is the price you paid for it.  What you are really saying is that you believe that one day you will cross paths with another collector who will pay you more for this item than you originally paid for it.  But here's a question for you: On what basis did you form the belief that you would encounter this future collector who will buy this item from you?  Was it in the marketing pitch of the person who sold it to you?  Think about that for a second.  If what they told you were really true, why wouldn't they just hang onto this item themselves and put the profit from the sale to the future collector in their own pockets?"

Very few real collector's items are seen as having any value at all until long after they are no longer being made and the item has had a sufficiently long period of being perceived as value-less that there aren't that many of them sitting around anymore.  Even in the case of things like artwork, there are normally long periods of obscurity when a certain type of work will not be perceived as having great value.

[dualstow]

My brother bought one as a joke before they became collectible. When they got popular, people told him to sell it and he rolled his eyes and said that he wasn't interested. A week later, I read about people assaulting each other in shopping malls, even biting each other to get at these damn dolls.

[Pointedstick]

Hearing that something is collectible is probably a counter-indicator for its actual collectibility.

[Reub]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

[MediumTex]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

You should collect things that you enjoy collecting.  If they happen to be more valuable in the future than they are today, that's a bonus. 

That's about all I can say about that.

Personally, I believe that anything associated with manned spaceflight will see its value continue to rise as people begin to realize that manned spaceflight outside of earth's orbit reached it zenith several decades ago.  While these items are not cheap right now, when it begins to dawn on people that humans are unlikely to leave the earth's orbit again, items associated with the amazing trips to the moon will become far more valuable.

I know that I am making a bold prediction, and many people would say that I'm simply wrong, but that's what makes it a good opportunity today.  By the time I am proven right, it will be way too late to get into this market.

If humans are around 1,000 years from now, the one thing they are almost certain to know about the 20th century is that a small group of humans went to the moon, explored it, and returned to earth.  Amazing.

The interesting thing about the Apollo astronauts is that they seem not to have appreciated in any way the feedstock for future mythology that their adventures represented.  They were an extraordinary group of men, in part because in most cases they didn't see that what they had done was that extraordinary.  It was simply a successful mission to a very interesting place.  They certainly had a sense of wonder, but when you listen to them talk about walking on the moon they talk about it in terms of the moon's geology, the beautiful view of earth, and the sensation of weightlessness.  Their casual attitude was a manifestation of their enormous self-confidence--"guys like us go to the moon, that's just what we do."  The more subtle mythological dimensions of what they were doing likely never occurred to them.  If you asked Neil Armstrong at any point in his post-astronaut career what the chances were that he would one day be considered a god-like figure on par with the boldest gods in all of human mythologies, he would have likely said you were an idiot.  He was just a very good pilot with a brilliant mind who happened to be selected from a group of similar men to have the most amazing adventure in all of human history.  Buzz Aldrin is a bit more reflective than Armstrong was, but he is still a practical reality-based kind of guy.

What starts off as this guy:



Turns into this guy:



Who becomes this guy:



And when enough time passes, he will become these guys:



Pretty neat.

[Xan]

MediumTex, your post is inspiring and sad all at the same time.

Reminds me of this:
https://xkcd.com/893/

[AdamA]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

You should collect things that you enjoy collecting.  If they happen to be more valuable in the future than they are today, that's a bonus. 

That's about all I can say about that.

Personally, I believe that anything associated with manned spaceflight will see its value continue to rise as people begin to realize that manned spaceflight outside of earth's orbit reached it zenith several decades ago.  While these items are not cheap right now, when it begins to dawn on people that humans are unlikely to leave the earth's orbit again, items associated with the amazing trips to the moon will become far more valuable.

I know that I am making a bold prediction, and many people would say that I'm simply wrong, but that's what makes it a good opportunity today.  By the time I am proven right, it will be way too late to get into this market.

If humans are around 1,000 years from now, the one thing they are almost certain to know about the 20th century is that a small group of humans went to the moon, explored it, and returned to earth.  Amazing.

The interesting thing about the Apollo astronauts is that they seem not to have appreciated in any way the feedstock for future mythology that their adventures represented.  They were an extraordinary group of men, in part because in most cases they didn't see that what they had done was that extraordinary.  It was simply a successful mission to a very interesting place.  They certainly had a sense of wonder, but when you listen to them talk about walking on the moon they talk about it in terms of the moon's geology, the beautiful view of earth, and the sensation of weightlessness.  Their casual attitude was a manifestation of their enormous self-confidence--"guys like us go to the moon, that's just what we do."  The more subtle mythological dimensions of what they were doing likely never occurred to them.  If you asked Neil Armstrong at any point in his post-astronaut career what the chances were that he would one day be considered a god-like figure on par with the boldest gods in all of human mythologies, he would have likely said you were an idiot.  He was just a very good pilot with a brilliant mind who happened to be selected from a group of similar men to have the most amazing adventure in all of human history.  Buzz Aldrin is a bit more reflective than Armstrong was, but he is still a practical reality-based kind of guy.

Would you take a similar trip to the moon given the option?

[Libertarian666]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

Gold coins.

[Libertarian666]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

You should collect things that you enjoy collecting.  If they happen to be more valuable in the future than they are today, that's a bonus. 

That's about all I can say about that.

Personally, I believe that anything associated with manned spaceflight will see its value continue to rise as people begin to realize that manned spaceflight outside of earth's orbit reached it zenith several decades ago.  While these items are not cheap right now, when it begins to dawn on people that humans are unlikely to leave the earth's orbit again, items associated with the amazing trips to the moon will become far more valuable.

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Nothing personal, of course; I just think that it is incredibly unlikely to be right.

[Pointedstick]

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Nothing personal, of course; I just think that it is incredibly unlikely to be right.

http://www.intrade.com

Oh, wait...   

[MediumTex]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

You should collect things that you enjoy collecting.  If they happen to be more valuable in the future than they are today, that's a bonus. 

That's about all I can say about that.

Personally, I believe that anything associated with manned spaceflight will see its value continue to rise as people begin to realize that manned spaceflight outside of earth's orbit reached it zenith several decades ago.  While these items are not cheap right now, when it begins to dawn on people that humans are unlikely to leave the earth's orbit again, items associated with the amazing trips to the moon will become far more valuable.

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Nothing personal, of course; I just think that it is incredibly unlikely to be right.

That's what makes a market, as they say.

Note, though, that I've been right for the last 40 years.

As I said, though, if everyone knew what I am predicting were true, the items I am talking about would already be priceless.

What do you think someone would have said after the last Apollo mission if I had predicted that there would be no further manned space missions that left the earth's orbit by the U.S. or any other nation over the next 40 years?  People would have said that was absurd.  They probably would have told me to go watch 2001: A Space Odyssey and keep my dumb opinions to myself.

[Pointedstick]

So what kind of cool Apollo memorabilia have you got, MT?

[AdamA]

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Why?

[annieB]

Where is that dumpster?

[MediumTex]

So what kind of cool Apollo memorabilia have you got, MT?

Nothing.  I just think it would be cool stuff to collect.

***

To Adam's question about going to the moon if I could, I would love to.

[dualstow]

So are there any good, legitimate collectibles out there presently?

Meteorite fragments?

[Libertarian666]

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Why?

Two words: Elon Musk.

[MediumTex]

If I could bet against that prediction in some meaningful way, I would put $1000 on its being incorrect at even odds.

Why?

Two words: Elon Musk.

Three words: Who is that?

[Bean]

Space Chaps?

[Libertarian666]

Why?

Two words: Elon Musk.

Three words: Who is that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

[MediumTex]

Two words: Elon Musk.

Three words: Who is that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

What he's doing is manned orbital flight, and plenty will be happening in that area.  He says he would like to see a manned Mar mission in 10-20 years, and so would I.  We'll see what happens.

The future of space exploration, though, is in unmanned craft.

Here is a nice shot of the Mars surface from 37 years ago taken by one of the unmanned Viking landing craft.



We don't hear much about it, but the Russians were the first to put an unmanned craft on the surface of Mars in the early 1970s.

[Reub]

Space Chaps?

I have some original proof First Man On The Moon postage stamps but I would trade them in a lunar second for some genuine Space Chaps!

[AdamA]

Here is a nice shot of the Mars surface from 37 years ago taken by one of the unmanned Viking landing craft.



We don't hear much about it, but the Russians were the first to put an unmanned craft on the surface of Mars in the early 1970s.

That's a cool picture. 

When I think of Mars, I always think of it as having a dark sky with orange sand everywhere (too many bad sci fi movies, I guess).

In that pic, it looks like you could go up there and walk around in a pair of shorts and a Hawaiian shirt.   

[Libertarian666]

Three words: Who is that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

What he's doing is manned orbital flight, and plenty will be happening in that area.  He says he would like to see a manned Mar mission in 10-20 years, and so would I.  We'll see what happens.

Yes, we will see what happens, and I'm betting on his being right about space travel for humans to Mars. Which would make your prediction incorrect, of course.

The future of space exploration, though, is in unmanned craft.

To some extent. However, the future of space settlement is in manned craft, and that's what I'm talking about.