Backtesting for Starting Years

[meamakim]

Dear PP gurus -

It seems that the ongoing returns of a specific PP would be affected to a large degree on the conditions when it is first set up. For example, if one set it up with 4x25 just before the 2001 crash, it would have lost a lot of money in stocks initially, compared to one set up right after the crash.

Has anyone done an analysis of the long term return for PPs set up with 4x25 allocations at the beginning of each year? For example ,  the return to date on a PP that was started with 4x25 in 1975 (and rebalanced according to the 15/35 rule through 2012), vs a PP started with 4x25 in 1976, versus one started in 1977... etc.? Has this backtesting been done?

If this has already been addressed, my apologies, and could you point me to the right thread?

Thanks!

[dragoncar]

I agree that we really need a FIREcalc for the PP. 

[cnh]

Craig & J. M.'s book (p. 25) gives 3-, 5- and 10-year rolling real returns for every year from 1972 through 2008, 2006 and 2002 respectively.  It should be pretty straightforward to infer whatever you're after from that.