craigr wrote:
charliemckelvey wrote:Now investing and building a house are obviously two completely different things but you get my point. Sometimes it is better to pay a professional and save yourself the time, aggravation, and learning the hard way.
The difference is when I hire an electrician to do a job I'm reasonably sure his licensing and credentials will not result in my house burning down. Same for an architect, plumber, carpenter, etc. You can verify their credentials and past house building skills very easily.
With investment advisors there is no guarantee, and no way they could guarantee, that they know what they are doing.
And "what they are doing" is basically trying to match wits with an anonymous mass of extremely intelligent people and attempting to consistently win.
That's much harder to do than it looks, and that's why people like Warren Buffett are so rare (though every lottery has winners, and these winners can then be used to pull more people into the game).
I normally don't get too far into discussions with investment advisors before it becomes clear that there are a whole constellation of risks and potential outcomes that they have never thought very deeply about. As the discussion progresses, they often begin to look at me like an illusionist might look at a heckler in the crowd who shouted the secret to each trick before he performed it.
That "look" I am describing is a mixture of extreme annoyance and mild curiosity at how I learned all of his tricks without being an illusionist myself.
To extend the illusionist metaphor a bit farther, most illusionists know that they don't really have real supernatural powers and they are just putting on a show, but some illusionists probably do begin to think that perhaps they do actually have the ability to perform real magic. I think that many "Master of the Universe" Wall Street-types fall under a similar spell.
In 2008, it was amusing to see so many of these Masters of the Universe wandering around shellshocked, like Superman after eating a Kryptonite-laced candy bar. I think that they went to the government for bailouts as much to restore their self-images as to rescue their firms.
I do not mean to disparage the hardworking mutual fund salesmen out there who help novices get started in investing. They do perform a valuable function for someone who doesn't know anything about investing (though these novices often pay dearly for their lack of knowledge). I suppose it's not unlike a priest who reassures the congregation that comes to him for comfort and meaning in life, even as he harbors a complex set of secret reservations about the framework of beliefs that he offers to others as absolute truth.
In realms in which cause and effect relationships can't be measured, quantified and taught to others, it really pays to educate oneself as much as possible because these are the areas of life where the hucksters, wizards, and con men like to congregate.
Charles Mackay provided many insights into the nature and patterns of human delusion in
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds way back in 1841. In this wonderful book he observed that much of the trickery perpetrated against people throughout history has arisen in response to the following three eternal irritations to the human mind: (i) the inevitability of death, (ii) the unpredictability of the future, and (iii) the dreariness of having to work.
I predict that Charlie McKelvey will say "but none of that stuff describes me", and I'm sure he is telling the truth, but that's sort of like saying that because you locate an honest car salesman it means that the car business is not crooked to its core. There are good people in the most crooked industries. Look at Ron Paul.