I understand that we don't want to time the market. However... with gold prices where they are, would it be worthwhile to dollar-cost average in? Or allott less than 25% until prices come down?
I understand there are no guarantees that it is coming down anytime soon, but being at its all time high price zone (and even near its all-time inflation adjusted high), seems likely that going down over the next couple years seems much more likely than going up or staying put.
Or is it better to not try to time the market, and just close my eyes and push the "buy" button?
Timing gold purchase?
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Re: Timing gold purchase?
Until you have the full gold position you don't have a PP. I would feel really weird having 33% stocks, 33% thirty year bonds, and 33% cash. That is a weird portfolio that seems pretty risky. I couldn't imagine holding Treasuries at these rates without holding some gold along side of it.
Last edited by melveyr on Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
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China Bull
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Re: Timing gold purchase?
Gosh, everything to me screams gold still has a long ways to go upward ,especially as things looking dicey for the USD. Especially if the rest of your portfolio is USD. But again, who knows what will happen, so best to at least have around 20-25% in gold
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MachineGhost
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Re: Timing gold purchase?
Since gold is the riskiest asset with soul-destroying historical drawdowns, I would not dollar cost average nor ever buy unless it is first in an uptrend. See http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... 133#p33133meamakim wrote: I understand that we don't want to time the market. However... with gold prices where they are, would it be worthwhile to dollar-cost average in? Or allott less than 25% until prices come down?
Gold collapsed 50% in the 70's before it went on to its bubble high. Avoiding that would leave the PP with a lot more capital to make a bigger profit off of.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Timing gold purchase?
This is a tough call. The way things are going now, it feels like people are itching to get into stocks again. S&P just hit 1,500, gold has been relatively flat for the past 2 years (bouncing around between 1,600-1,800), and a lot of money has been sitting on the sidelines. Anything could happen of course, so methinks 2013 will be an "interesting" year to say the least.
I wonder what HB would think of everything that's happened since he passed away?
I wonder what HB would think of everything that's happened since he passed away?
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
- H. L. Mencken
- H. L. Mencken