Ben Davies of Hinde Capital introduces amazing new portfolio!

[Wonk]

Just released on King World News!  I think he's on to something:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... ssets.html

Scroll down to "best" portfolio to see amazing new portfolio.

[MediumTex]

I can't believe someone would write an article like that without mentioning HB's contribution to this strategy.

In any case, it is interesting that he is treating this as some kind of "new" discovery.

[Wonk]

I can't believe someone would write an article like that without mentioning HB's contribution to this strategy.

In any case, it is interesting that he is treating this as some kind of "new" discovery.

For what it's worth, I sent him an email encouraging him to give credit where it's due.

[Jan Van]

For what it's worth, I sent him an email encouraging him to give credit where it's due.

Please keep us posted...

[KevD]

While we're at it, what's the story on this?

http://www.midasfunds.com/MidasPerpetualPortfolio.html

[MediumTex]

While we're at it, what's the story on this?

http://www.midasfunds.com/MidasPerpetualPortfolio.html

I think Roy posted something about that over at the BH board.

It's like a weird Planet of the Apes-type alternate reality PRPFX.

[rickb]

While we're at it, what's the story on this?

http://www.midasfunds.com/MidasPerpetualPortfolio.html

Over 3% annual expense ratio (per http://www.midasfunds.com/Fees-and-Expenses.html)????  I thought PRPFX's 0.8% was high.

[MediumTex]

I don't understand who would want to buy the Midas fund when PRPFX is available at a much lower cost.  That doesn't make any sense to me.

[craigr]

Any fund charging 3% has no hope of matching market returns. Any fund over 1% I would never buy personally. I think that if PRPFX went totally passive and stopped with the stock picking they could lower their costs even further.

[Wonk]

Update on the email exchange...

My original email:

Hi Ben,
>
> Every now and then I check in on the new posts from KWN.  I've enjoyed your
> interviews and posts.  One item I think you'll want to address is giving proper
> credit to your "best" portfolio as outlined in the most recent post.  The 25% x
> 4 portfolio you outlined is a near duplicate of the original concept Harry
> Browne introduced in 1981 called "The Permanent Portfolio":
>
> https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... llocation/
>
> If this was an amazing coincidence, then you have just been formally introduced
> to Harry Browne.  If you were already familiar with his writings, I would
> encourage you to give proper credit in a future interview or column.  You
> probably don't want people assuming you are taking original credit for a novel
> portfolio design.

His reply:

I spoke recently at the CMRE. In my speech I made a statement that "even in the age of technology no one can have perfect knowledge." How ironic. I thank you for bringing this to our attention.

Hinde and myself are unaware of this piece of work. We have imperfect knowledge. But I don't find this an 'amazing' coincidence. We didn't just find the cure for cancer and certainly didn't re-define the laws of gravity; it's not rocket science. If it was I can safely say I (I can't speak for our team) I could not have offered such a solution.

Our Feb HindeSight letter develops our work in more detail than the blog and it may illustrate that our process was different, but I cannot be sure as I/ we have not read this work.

I would like to believe that listeners and readers of our work, that incidentally we make freely available and so open to scrutiny, can hear and see the integrity of work.

Best regards

Ben Davies

[6 Iron]

I always admire a personal response, but I do not get the feeling that an acknowledgement of HB's permanent portfolio is coming.

[MediumTex]

If I were him I would have read up on Harry Browne before replying to Wonk.

His response still seemed not to grasp that someone else had done all the research, came up with the same strategy 30 years ago, wrote several books about it, inspired what is now a huge mutual fund, and ran for President twice in his spare time.  How on earth can any serious market commentator (especially one who recommends gold as part of an allocation) NOT know who Harry Browne is?  That's weird.

This fellow sounds like a rookie trying to cover up his inexperience, insecurity, or ignorance.

It would be like an aspiring artist painting a replica of the Mona Lisa and then acting surprised when someone informed him about the original.  It's almost comical.

[moda0306]

Agreed with MT.

[cowboyhat]

Convergent evolution happens, consider birds, bats, and pterodactyls.

One of the best things about the PP is that it is an open source solution. I'm interested to find his February newsletter and understand the logic that apparently lead him to the place Harry Browne found first.

[cowboyhat]

Here is a link to his Feb newsletter. I have not read yet. 19 pages

http://www.hindecapital.com/docs/hil_re ... ight-1.pdf

[LNGTERMER]

Convergent evolution happens, consider birds, bats, and pterodactyls.

One of the best things about the PP is that it is an open source solution. I'm interested to find his February newsletter and understand the logic that apparently lead him to the place Harry Browne found first.

Convergence takes place because people communicate and hear of one an others ideas and that leads to cross pollinations of creativity and new ideas. I really doubt he walk up one day and said aahaa here is 4x25 PP mix investing idea that is identical to HB's which I came up with all by myself. It's even more unlikely, since the PP is becoming popular and so many people are starting to adopt it. He should give credit to HB.

[MediumTex]

Convergent evolution happens, consider birds, bats, and pterodactyls.

One of the best things about the PP is that it is an open source solution. I'm interested to find his February newsletter and understand the logic that apparently lead him to the place Harry Browne found first.

Convergence takes place because people communicate and hear of one an others ideas and that leads to cross pollinations of creativity and new ideas. I really doubt he walk up one day and said aahaa here is 4x25 PP mix investing idea that is identical to HB's which I came up with all by myself. It's even more unlikely, since the PP is becoming popular and so many people are starting to adopt it. He should give credit to HB.

There is plenty of new commentary to add to HB's basic insights (which is what makes this forum interesting IMHO), but the discussion should begin with an acknowledgment that the ideas we are working with came from the mind of Harry Browne.

I don't think this guy (or some researcher he relies on) came up with any of this on his own.  I think he just figured no one would notice (especially since I assume HB is less well known in Britain than in the U.S.).

[upside]

LOL @ claiming he's never heard of the Harry Browne permanent portfolio.

[KevinW]

The idea that he independently came up with those exact four assets in that exact proportion really strains credibility.  When two people develop the same idea independently, there is almost always some kind of blurriness around the edges that gives them a different character.

For example Newton and Leibniz seem to have both invented calculus, but their notation and way of describing it is sufficiently distinct that it seems clear that the ideas came from different minds.

I think a legitimate independent PP-alike would bear about as much similarity to the 4x25 PP as PRPFX does.

[Storm]

While I find it highly unlikely, it is possible he heard about the PP from somebody else who did not give proper attribution to Harry Browne, and finds it embarrassing to admit this, so he claims it is his own invention.

[cowboyhat]

Let me start by saying I don't know anything about this guy, don't invest with him, don't care about him. I'm not defending him.

I'm not sure why he would be reluctant to admit he was influenced by a guy who is now dead, and was the grandfather of all gold bugs. But presume incompetence or malice according to your view of humanity. We will never settle the question here.

Whatever you think of his motives or manners, if you are a PP investor his February newsletter is interesting reading. Lot of stuff in it about compound interest, the history of pensions, and demographics.

[upside]

I'm not sure why he would be reluctant to admit he was influenced by a guy who is now dead, and was the grandfather of all gold bugs.

Good point, when has anyone ever tried to pass off other people's ideas as their own before.

[buddtholomew]

Can someone explain to me how real return can exceed nominal return as depicted in one of the charts?

[buddtholomew]

Can someone explain to me how real return can exceed nominal return as depicted in one of the charts?

someone?

[MediumTex]

Can someone explain to me how real return can exceed nominal return as depicted in one of the charts?

someone?

In theory, I suppose if you were in a deflationary period you could have real returns that exceeded nominal returns.

As for the research piece, perhaps their analysis is as sloppy with respect to real vs. nominal returns as it is with respect to proper attribution of the PP strategy to Harry Browne.