Best Variable Portfolio

[frugal]

Hello,

here is it:

TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund – 15%;

ITE - SPDR Barclays Capital Intermediate Term Treasury ETF – 5%;

GLD/SGOL - SPDR Gold Shares /Physical Swiss Gold Shares – 15%;

DBC - PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund – 7.5%;

VNQ/VNGI - Vanguard REIT ETF/ Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF – 10%

VBR – Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF – 15%;

VPL - Vanguard MSCI Pacific ETF – 10%;  VGK - Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF – 10%; 

VWO - Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF – 12.5%


1- What do you think of these set of ETF's?

2- How much of this portfolio is connected/linked to the USD currency ?

I am living in Europe and I want to avoid currency risk.



Thank you for helping me.

[clacy]

I think that allocation or something similar is fine for a European VP.  I like the idea of foreign investors diversifying with a certain percentage into a US PP because of the reserve currency factor.

My only change would be to make it a little more PP-like however.

[frugal]

I think that allocation or something similar is fine for a European VP.  I like the idea of foreign investors diversifying with a certain percentage into a US PP because of the reserve currency factor.

My only change would be to make it a little more PP-like however.

HBPP-US ?

Please explain.

Frugal, how did you arrive at those percentages? Random, or based on some backtest or what?

Yes it returned +12% in 30 years

And +3% makes all the difference.

Wait all your comments

Thanks

[escafandro]

I think that allocation or something similar is fine for a European VP.  I like the idea of foreign investors diversifying with a certain percentage into a US PP because of the reserve currency factor.

My only change would be to make it a little more PP-like however.

HBPP-US ?

Please explain.

VTI
TLT
GLD
SHY

All dominated by dollars and U.S. economy.

My idea of the best variable portfolio would be one that goes up when the PP down and vice versa. But I have no idea what could be that portfolio...

[Pointedstick]

My idea of the best variable portfolio would be one that goes up when the PP down and vice versa. But I have no idea what could be that portfolio...

The Temporary Portfolio!  Short VTI, TLT, SHY, and GLD! 

[frugal]

Hello,

where can I CHECK daily variation of HBPP?

I would like to feel the flutuactions day by day in a chart.

Thank you.

[frugal]

hello,


Having a GOLD ETF in USD and a GOLD ETF in EUR makes sense?

[frugal]

hi,

please comment the portfolio and results:

raw numbers for 10 year rolling returns Annualized 10 Year Rolling Returns [[1982, 15.59],[1983, 14.48],[1984, 15.65],[1985, 16.68],[1986, 18.19],[1987, 17.45],[1988, 16.92],[1989, 16.43],[1990, 13.98],[1991, 16.40],[1992, 15.42],[1993, 16.41],[1994, 15.54],[1995, 13.74],[1996, 11.55],[1997, 10.98],[1998, 9.22],[1999, 8.78],[2000, 10.00],[2001, 7.64],[2002, 7.36],[2003, 7.35],[2004, 9.11],[2005, 8.95],[2006, 9.61],[2007, 10.30],[2008, 7.95],[2009, 8.82],[2010, 9.67],]

raw numbers for annual returns Annual Returns [[1972, 28.09],[1973, 0.69],[1974, -3.68],[1975, 22.90],[1976, 16.72],[1977, 17.54],[1978, 23.22],[1979, 24.63],[1980, 15.18],[1981, -0.68],[1982, 15.72],[1983, 17.13],[1984, 6.55],[1985, 34.36],[1986, 32.72],[1987, 10.41],[1988, 17.80],[1989, 19.46],[1990, -6.92],[1991, 22.63],[1992, 6.31],[1993, 27.59],[1994, -1.19],[1995, 14.88],[1996, 9.30],[1997, 4.89],[1998, 0.36],[1999, 14.76],[2000, 4.06],[2001, -1.26],[2002, 3.52],[2003, 27.55],[2004, 16.20],[2005, 13.16],[2006, 16.14],[2007, 11.68],[2008, -19.06],[2009, 24.33],[2010, 12.51],]

[Pointedstick]

Looks mighty complicated to me. Are you going to rebalance once those percentages start to drift as some assets rise and others fall? How often will you rebalance? Looks like that will be kind of a pain. Also, how did you arrive at those percentages? Some theoretical approach, or just backtesting to see what would have worked well in the past? If the latter, how do you know that allocation won't get crushed in the future?

[frugal]

PS,

1. Theoretical approach yes and backtest, both. Rebalance once a year.

2.
SPDR Dow Jones Intl Real Estate RWX

or VWO or VEU

if I buy them here from Portugal, I will be exposed to currency risk or not?

If ETF assets are out of US, I can buy it without currency problem, no?


Tks!

[frugal]

So, it is not a good idea to have USD ETFs, right?

You also dont have in EURos

Tks

[frugal]

AA VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... rTBEZSL7-4