Permanent Portfolio Book - Kindle Edition Now Shipping!

[BearBones]

Craig & MT,
I find the new banners all over this site a bit much and, actually, counterproductive. Seems reasonable on the home page so that newbies can see. But not among the discussions. We all know about it already. And I think it is better that 1. the book be perceived as the valuable tool and generous gift that it is, and 2. this web site be perceived as one of integrity without any conflicts of interest.
BTW, I have on pre-order and look forward to reading. Thanks.

[Gumby]

Seems reasonable on the home page so that newbies can see. But not among the discussions.

Not the best advice. Most new visitors only visit the discussions page and only a few go to the homepage.

For instance, someone Googles "how to buy gold without getting ripped off" and finds a link directly to the relevant discussion thread on this site. Only a few new visitors will take the time to ever go to the homepage. So, if anything. the discussion pages are where most new visitor traffic takes place.

[MachineGhost]

Craig & MT,
I find the new banners all over this site a bit much and, actually, counterproductive. Seems reasonable on the home page so that newbies can see. But not among the discussions. We all know about it already. And I think it is better that 1. the book be perceived as the valuable tool and generous gift that it is, and 2. this web site be perceived as one of integrity without any conflicts of interest.
BTW, I have on pre-order and look forward to reading. Thanks.

You need to install this and block it: http://adblockplus.org/en/

[barry barnitz]

Craig and Medium Tex:

Please note that I have sketched in entries for both of you on the Bogleheads wiki:

Craig Rowland - Bogleheads
J. M. Lawson - Bogleheads

regards,

[craigr]

Craig and Medium Tex:

Please note that I have sketched in entries for both of you on the Bogleheads wiki:

Craig Rowland - Bogleheads
J. M. Lawson - Bogleheads

regards,

Thanks a lot Barry!

[Reub]

I received this email today from Amazon.com:

Hello,

We have received new release date information related to the order you placed on August 07, 2012 (Order# #########). The item(s) listed below will actually ship sooner than we originally expected based on the new release date:
   
  Craig Rowland, J. M. Lawson "The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy"
    Previous estimated arrival date: October 15, 2012 - October 19, 2012
    New estimated arrival date: October 02, 2012 - October 06, 2012


So it looks like my hard copy will be here soon!

[craigr]

Mike and I received hardcopies today from the publisher. They look spectacular. Just as we intended from the proof PDFs. They should be shipping very shortly.

[MediumTex]

I received this email today from Amazon.com:

Hello,

We have received new release date information related to the order you placed on August 07, 2012 (Order# #########). The item(s) listed below will actually ship sooner than we originally expected based on the new release date:
   
  Craig Rowland, J. M. Lawson "The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy"
    Previous estimated arrival date: October 15, 2012 - October 19, 2012
    New estimated arrival date: October 02, 2012 - October 06, 2012

So it looks like my hard copy will be here soon!

I looked at the Amazon listing this morning and it says that the hardcover will be in stock on September 29, which means that it could probably start shipping any time.  If Craig and I got our hardcovers yesterday, I'm pretty sure Amazon will have theirs today or tomorrow if they don't already.

The book looks great.  The publisher did a great job.

[fmsailor]

Hi folks. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just finished the Kindle edition of your book. Excellent book. Thank you!

I've been fascinated with the PP strategy for some time now. I just didn't have the guts to get in (I had tunnel vision and was scared of LTT and gold).

You explained the strategy in terms that I could understand and now I see the whole picture.

Many thanks again.

[MediumTex]

Hi folks. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just finished the Kindle edition of your book. Excellent book. Thank you!

I've been fascinated with the PP strategy for some time now. I just didn't have the guts to get in (I had tunnel vision and was scared of LTT and gold).

You explained the strategy in terms that I could understand and now I see the whole picture.

Many thanks again.

You are who we wrote the book for.

I'm happy to hear that what you got out of the book is what we were trying to convey, which is an explanation of the PP that answers investors' questions and objections about it and allows them to move forward with it confidently.

[craigr]

Hi folks. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just finished the Kindle edition of your book. Excellent book. Thank you!

I've been fascinated with the PP strategy for some time now. I just didn't have the guts to get in (I had tunnel vision and was scared of LTT and gold).

You explained the strategy in terms that I could understand and now I see the whole picture.

Many thanks again.

Ditto what Tex said. Happy it was helpful to you...

[flyingpylon]

I've posted my 5-star review at Amazon.  I'm not a professional book reviewer, but I was able to conjure up a little more than "Its got a good beat and it's easy to dance to".  ;D

Kudos to craigr and MediumTex, it's a great book and I appreciate all of the hard work you put into it.

[craigr]

Thanks for the feedback and review. We really appreciate it!

[MediumTex]

I've posted my 5-star review at Amazon.  I'm not a professional book reviewer, but I was able to conjure up a little more than "Its got a good beat and it's easy to dance to".  ;D

Kudos to craigr and MediumTex, it's a great book and I appreciate all of the hard work you put into it.

That was a great review on Amazon.  Thank you for taking the time to write it. 

[MediumTex]

In the last hour or so Amazon has started showing the hardcover as being in stock, but with a 1-2 day delay to process orders.

I assume that means that Amazon received their shipment from the publisher yesterday just like Craig and I did.

[Xan]

Very exciting!  I hope to be getting my copy very soon now.

PS - Maybe it's time to change the banner ads to link to the hardcover version?

PPS - Oh, I didn't see the handy link from one to the other.  Doesn't much matter then.

[Reub]

My hardcover copy shipped today!

[kev_in_tw]

I just got the Kindle edition and I'm sat here at 5am having read (according to Kindle for Android) 27% of it.

[MediumTex]

I just got the Kindle edition and I'm sat here at 5am having read (according to Kindle for Amazon) 27% of it.

Thanks for making the investment.  I hope that it has been an engaging 27% so far.

[sophie]

Finished the Kindle version.  Very nice!!  Even after all this time on the forum, I learned a lot from the geographic diversification chapter.  It almost had me running off to buy Perth Mint certificates.

A question for MT and Craig:  In the book, you said that a tight money recession is caused by the central bank raising interest rates as it did in 1981 - with phrasing suggesting this is the only way such a recession can happen.  Is that the case?  I've never gotten that impression from HB's books.  And, I had the idea that the credit markets freezing up in 2008 resulted in a brief tight money recession, that might have gone on longer if the central bank hadn't intervened.

Also, not sure if the publisher is open to doing any corrections, but I found a table with errors in it.  I forgot to mark it though so I'm trying to find it again and will let you know.

[MediumTex]

Finished the Kindle version.  Very nice!!  Even after all this time on the forum, I learned a lot from the geographic diversification chapter.  It almost had me running off to buy Perth Mint certificates.

A question for MT and Craig:  In the book, you said that a tight money recession is caused by the central bank raising interest rates as it did in 1981 - with phrasing suggesting this is the only way such a recession can happen.  Is that the case?  I've never gotten that impression from HB's books.  And, I had the idea that the credit markets freezing up in 2008 resulted in a brief tight money recession, that might have gone on longer if the central bank hadn't intervened.

Also, not sure if the publisher is open to doing any corrections, but I found a table with errors in it.  I forgot to mark it though so I'm trying to find it again and will let you know.

Well, first off, thanks a lot for reading the book and if there was only one error in it then I actually think that's pretty good, but please let us know where it's at.

As far as the recession topic, that's a hard one to nail down.  In a sense, every recession is a "tight money" recession in that what causes a recession is for whatever reason production gets ahead of demand and sales slow across the whole economy because people are collectively making the decision to spend less money.  In other words, the flow of money throughout the whole economy has "tightened."  This can happen for a variety of reasons, including tightening credit conditions, general fear, diminished purchasing power as a result of inflation, and countless other reasons.  Regardless of the cause, however, what business owners notice is less demand for their products and services and it feels like their customers' money is "tighter."

In the early 1980s, the Fed stepped into an economy that was already weak but still experiencing high inflation and began raising interest rates, effectively contracting the money supply even as the economy was already contracting.  Predictably, this had a devastating economic impact, since overall demand was weak to start with, and rising interest rates only made it weaker as it became harder for consumers to afford basically anything that is purchased on credit.  During this period almost all investments performed poorly, and only the high interest paid on t-bills would have kep the PP from having poor performance as well.  With t-bills to prop it up during the period, however, the PP continued its steady upward grind, seeing only one year (1981) of single digit negative returns.

Once the Fed succeeded in taming inflation (which is the narrative economists offer, though I have my own somewhat more complex theory involving falling oil prices), the economy returned to strength, and the PP's stock exposure kept it moving upward throughout the 80s and 90s.

The thing I think we were trying to get at in the book is that the PP will protect you in a recession, whatever the cause of the recession, including an essentially manufactured recession due solely to central bank action.

So to put it simply, you might say that the PP will protect you in periods of inflation, deflation, prosperity, and periods of economic contraction (i.e., recessions), whatever the cause of the recession may be, including Fed-induced "tight money" conditions.

[sophie]

Thanks MT for the clarification!  Not worried about the mechanics of the PP, just curious in an academic sense.

I found that table:  8.8.  The 3 lines have exactly the same numbers.  I noticed because it was a very interesting topic (T-bills vs 1-3 year treasuries in good times & bad), and I wanted to see the results that I guess should have been there.

Please don't take it as a criticism - it's a beautifully researched and written book.  I'm glad Amazon lets us loan it to other Kindle owners.  I know too many people who are gambling with their investment money without realizing it.

[craigr]

I found that table:  8.8.  The 3 lines have exactly the same numbers.  I noticed because it was a very interesting topic (T-bills vs 1-3 year treasuries in good times & bad), and I wanted to see the results that I guess should have been there.

The numbers are correct. Rounded to nearest tenth. The point is that there was no difference under high inflation really between t-bills and ST bonds. But you can potentially get better returns by holding the ST bonds. Again, potentially….

[sophie]

I found that table:  8.8.  The 3 lines have exactly the same numbers.  I noticed because it was a very interesting topic (T-bills vs 1-3 year treasuries in good times & bad), and I wanted to see the results that I guess should have been there.

The numbers are correct. Rounded to nearest tenth. The point is that there was no difference under high inflation really between t-bills and ST bonds. But you can potentially get better returns by holding the ST bonds. Again, potentially….

Interesting, rather surprising that the numbers would come out that close.  How did you define "under high inflation"?  I just took a look at 1 vs 3 year treasury rates (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... ation.aspx) and it looks like 3 year bonds will win primarily when interest rates are dropping.  When interest rates are stable or going up, the spread between them tightens and (presumably) the value of the 3 year bonds loses a bit.  So (based on back testing) it looks like in the "high inflation" case, where presumably interest rates are going up and 3 year bonds would be at their biggest disadvantage, 3 year bonds don't lose to T-bills.  Good to know.

[kev_in_tw]

The book is as excellent as I expected it would be. If I had one criticism, it would be that it's hard for me to distinguish the fifty-er, the five shades of gray in some of the charts. Like the chart showing 30-YR treasuries on the rise.

This is a tiny nitpick, and it's certainly not unique to this particular work. I had the same problem with the kindle version of Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation, for example. And, the ones I'm giving out as gifts are hardcover anyway.

I haven't got a Kindle (this is the first Kindle title I've bought) but I've found that the Android Kindle app works surprisingly well on my Samsung Galaxy SII. I actually prefer reading on my phone than on a laptop. Mostly it's because it doesn't try to cram too much text onto the phone screen and unlike Acrobat reader it doesn't try to preserve layout either. In fact the genius of Kindle is that it doesn't try to deal in page numbers, more an abstract location number. So if you have a small screen the jumps in location number are smaller than on a big one. Of course you can still sync the location number across devices. You can zoom in to graphics too by double tapping on them, which helps.

Turn down the brightness on an AMOLED screen and it's actually surprisingly easy on the eye. Kindle's ePaper screen seems like it's good for reading mono text in bright sunlight but horrible at greyscale.