Do you think a SHTF scenario happens in your lifetime?

[dualstow]

This is a TV program that shows that however impoverished we become, we can still live well if we have those peoples' attitude:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/kevi ... ing-it/4od

...
Bottom line: I bet that the people of Dharavi see opportunity for growth. Contrast this to what would happen if those in more affluent communities/cities/countries had to "regress" to this point...

The response I was about to give focuses on that second point. There is a huge difference between being born in a slum, knowing no other reality, and living a comfortable lifestyle which is suddenly taken away from you. It's as different as being born blind and being a painter who suddenly loses his vision at age fifty.

[MachineGhost]

I didn't get the impression that they did see any opportunity for ever escaping poverty. Rather they seemed to all realize that they were all in it together and they needed to make the best of how things were. They also seemed to have the self-respect to ensure that they acted well for their neighborhood etc.

Don't forget India is a strict caste-regimented society.  They only support their own kind, so they're all flippin' hypocrites at the end of the day.  The lowest caste does the sewer jobs, so is it any surprise that area is so neglected?

[Pointedstick]

there is also a big difference between being poor in a slum and living a comfortable lifestyle you build for yourself and your community, and feeling entitled to government assistance.   look at the riots in Greece and Europe and some of the 99%'rs here for some of the ways the entitled act when they get cut back or feel deprived. i doubt their reaction to being cut off completely will be better...  i suspect country's where both the poor and the rich are self reliant will fair much better at maintaining order than those where they have large populations that believe they are owed some level of comfort..

Truer words were rarely spoken.

[dualstow]

Yup.

[stone]

I'd be in favor of replacing means tested benefits with a flat citizen's dividend that was the same for everyone. Might that give the best of both worlds. The people in Dharavi don't get the social exclusion and sense of worthlessness that can result from living on benefits BUT they do have shocking real problems in terms of absolute poverty. Perhaps a citizen's dividend set up would allow people to start their own enterprises etc and get the self reliance seen in Dharavi and yet lift everyone above absolute poverty. I wonder whether it would actually provide the financial freedom to enable many very valuable enterprises to start up that currently never get started

[AgAuMoney]

While I readily concede that an economic calamity (extreme depression, civil war, hyperinflation) could precipitate a major decline in the standard of living, the sort of long term chaos being described on this thread and in the original post is almost impossible for me to imagine sans an apocalyptic event. I am a student of history. And nothing like that has occurred in any developed country as a consequence of an economic or purely military event that I am aware of....

Natural disasters or extreme war conditions can cause severe localized dislocations. But these are inherently temporary. Human nature and the evidence of the last 1500 years of human history I think pretty conclusively back up my view on this.

I know of no incident in the history of human civilization that resulted in that kind of chaos for any real length of time.

Everything is always "temporary."  The question becomes how long?  I'd argue that if it lasts 30-40 years, or call it a generation or more, might as well call it permanent.  After that anything isn't "going back" or "restoring" but rather starting from the new "normal."

There have been many events that have had severe disruption and became essentially permanent by that definition.

Afghanistan in 1970 had an international airport and was essentially a developed nation.  Enter the soviet union and 20 years of guerilla warfare followed by the Taliban enforcing their own fundamentalist version of Islam including forbidding most secular education and they are not even a developing nation any more.

Zimbabwe (or Rhodesia) used to be the breadbasket of Africa, feeding themselves and much of the continent.  There was some civil war in the mid-1970's but up until about 1990 they were an easy place to relocate for anyone used to western European or north American civilization.  Now it has been nearly two decades with no rule of law and the cities can no longer provide essential services, disease runs rampant and life expectancy is 1/2 from it was.  In another 10 years the dominant part of the population will have no memory but stories of what it was like before.

A whole bunch of eastern Europe SHTF...  Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Yugoslavia/Kosovo,  went thru what anyone who was there would describe as SHTF.  Recovered yet?  Views differ but they definitely are making progress but in many ways are still worse off than before.  But so much better now than 30 years ago, people that remember the old days are a marginal part of society.

Cambodia and the Khmer Rouge.

Mao and the cultural revolution.

North Korea.

Etc.

[AgAuMoney]

I'd be in favor of replacing means tested benefits with a flat citizen's dividend that was the same for everyone.

That's basically the approach taken by the Fair Tax prebate.  The approach makes a lot of sense.

[dualstow]

Afghanistan in 1970 had an international airport

and miniskirts. If that's not the height of civilization, I don't know what is. Not joking.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

[craigr]

If we ever get to the point in America where we have to store up food and defend ourselves against our neighbors who might want to take it from us, I can hardly see that as a life worth living and fighting for.

I live in Florida and don't even make these kinds of preparations for acts of God, aka hurricanes.

I've been through a hurricane and lost power, water, etc. Town could not be left due to flooding and washed out road. We did have water, food, batteries, etc. on hand and were fine.

For me, I don't want to be a burden during an emergency. By having supplies, etc. on hand to take care of myself and my family I can then know I'm not overburdening emergency responders that can take care of people that really need the help. It also means I don't have to take up room in an emergency shelter, worry about family members or friends getting sick drinking bad water, can give food out to people that need it, etc. It also means I have the opportunity to leave if things were that bad.

I'm not thinking it's going to come down to a fire fight with roving gangs. But at the same time I don't think it is a good idea to do absolutely nothing to prepare for even small emergencies.