Do you think a SHTF scenario happens in your lifetime?

[clacy]

I'm curious who here believes there will be a SHTF scenario during their lifetime.  For those that don't know, the acronym stands for Sh*t Hits The Fan.

Obviously there are varying levels of SHTF scenarios that could happen, and for many different reasons. 

For the purposes of this poll, do you believe there will be WIDESPREAD, significant societal/economic/monetary/technological collapse, where your own food, ammo, water, etc would be required for survival.  Since there are so many varying levels of SHTF, please include a quick description of how significant it would be, the duration of such an event before a return to normal. And whether you are prepared for such a scenario.

My guess is there are a lot on this board that do believe this will happen, or at least more than the average investor site.  If you've gravitated towards the PP, you probably don't accept that stocks will ALWAYS go up, and that standards of living only go in one direction.

[clacy]

For the record, I flip flop back and forth on this paranoia.  I voted no, because I'd say a SHTF scenario in my life time is not likely, but certainly possible.

Some days I would probably vote yes.

Unfortunately I'm not well prepared for such a scenario, but many times I think I should put more effort into some basic preparation.

[craigr]

SHTF can be localized as well. It might not be national. Hurricane Katrina for example.

[MediumTex]

Wasn't 9/11 a SHTF scenario?

[clacy]

SHTF can be localized as well. It might not be national. Hurricane Katrina for example.

You're certainly right, but I would not classify Katrina as a significant, widespread SHTF scenario, because it was fairly quick, localized, and most of the destruction/death was due to mother nature, and not societal breakdown.

I guess when I think of SHTF, I think of a disability for government to function in basic services for long periods of time.

[clacy]

Wasn't 9/11 a SHTF scenario?

No, I wouldn't call it that.  I would say it was a major terrorist event, that was quickly neutralized and contained.  There was no societal collapse. 

Very quickly, the government re-gained control of that situation, IMO.

[Pointedstick]

I highly doubt it. As MT alluded to, probably the closest thing to a SHTF situation that I think is likely to happen to any of us is would be a localized problem, most likely the result of a natural disasters or civil unrest. The 1992 L.A. riots probably felt pretty SHTF-y for some of the people cut off in areas the police were too frightened to enter. In particular:

Although the day began relatively quietly, by mid-morning on the second day violence appeared widespread and unchecked as heavy looting and fires were witnessed across Los Angeles County. Korean-Americans, seeing the police force's abandonment of Koreatown, organized armed security teams composed of store owners, who defended their livelihoods from assault by the mobs. Open gun battles were televised as Korean shopkeepers exchanged gunfire with armed looters

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_ ... pril_30.29

[craigr]

I guess when I think of SHTF, I think of a disability for government to function in basic services for long periods of time.

Wouldn't state governments take control or local governments? Just trying to pin this down. The idea of a power vacuum existing for very long seems hard for me to fathom in any functioning society. Someone will move in to take control in virtually all cases. It may not be the feds, but could be locals, etc.

So I'm inclined more to prepare for local disasters with some food, water, self-defense than thinking the country itself will break out into one gigantic SHTF situation. If anything, such an occurrence would throw control instantly back to the states to handle with local resources like national guard, police, local communities, etc.

[clacy]

Yes, I'm talking about a scenario where there is a lack of instituational control by legitimate governments (state, local, fed), for a time period of weeks or longer. 

Where basics such as food, water and protection are elements needed for survival.

If basic services are functioning, governments are more or less in control, businesses/banks are open..... I wouldn't classify that as a SHTF scenario.

[dualstow]

If you've gravitated towards the PP, you probably don't accept that stocks will ALWAYS go up, and that standards of living only go in one direction.

Even though I like the reduced volatility, I don't usually think about SHTF when I'm not on this forum.

A few exceptions: sometimes I daydream that the Occupy Wall Street series of events was a tiny hint of things to come. Growing unrest and frustration with economic inequality. In my dark fantasies, it is always manmade fear, always a problem of perception, and never anything like Fukushima or Katrina.

Remember how those people got rounded up on Park Avenue in the most recent Batman movie? I don't live on Park Avenue, but in a modest home. Still, that bothers me.

I'm certainly not prepared for a true SHTF event. I only hope that I'd have pizza nearby or a nice chunk of gouda in the fridge before I take myself out quickly and painlessly.

That said, I do like to ask people what contents they would prepare for a bug-out bag, and I began asking this after Katrina. We should have a thread outside of the gun thread that discusses such lists. I recently got a Speedy Stitcher and I have some MREs in the cabinet. That's about it. :-)

[Pointedstick]

That said, I do like to ask people what contents they would prepare for a bug-out bag, and I began asking this after Katrina. We should have a thread outside of the gun thread that discusses such lists. I recently got a Speedy Stitcher and I have some MREs in the cabinet. That's about it. :-)

http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs ... index.html

[murphy_p_t]

SHTF can be localized as well. It might not be national. Hurricane Katrina for example.

You're certainly right, but I would not classify Katrina as a significant, widespread SHTF scenario, because it was fairly quick, localized, and most of the destruction/death was due to mother nature, and not societal breakdown.

I guess when I think of SHTF, I think of a disability for government to function in basic services for long periods of time.

Regards Katrina...my recollection is just the opposite....the city did OK with the direct blast...just the *man-made* levees failed...in fact, as i type this, i recall the mayor blaming the feds (Bush admin) for not sending relief efforts, even though they were under local jurisdiction, and the local gov't didn't request assistance in a timely manner.

I would not put the rape and murder which occurred in the *safe-house* of the dome down to nature...this was failure by gov't organized relief effort to furnish sufficient security to deal w/ the natives. Further anarchy (in the bad sense) was exasperated due to gun confiscation, again by gov't agents.

Food, water, housing, security shortages...in my view...exhibit A for SHTF scenario...made worse by those tasked to relieve the same.

[MediumTex]

You mean like Somalia, Yugoslavia and Lebanon?

Those countries in recent decades seem pretty post-SHTF to me.

[One day at a time]

Influenza pandemic.  If you want to scare yourself, look into ventilator
resources in such a scenario.  A pandemic of 1918 virulence translates to
50 to 80 million deaths. 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#section_7

[craigr]

Influenza pandemic.  If you want to scare yourself, look into ventilator
resources in such a scenario.  A pandemic of 1918 virulence translates to
50 to 80 million deaths.  

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#section_7

I agree a pandemic would quickly overwhelm society. Might not have roaming gangs, but hospitals and medical would be overwhelmed. Might want to hole up for several weeks at least. This manual would be useful to have printed out inside a flu kit at home with common drugs, hydration supplies, etc.:

http://www.fluwiki.info/uploads/Main/Fl ... evised.pdf

[MachineGhost]

i kind flip flop on this one... some days i think we would rise to the challenge restore order and never suffer more than a temporary or localized SHTF. but some days the things i see make me seriously doubt we can, which makes a SHTF seem inevitable.
when i see things like how long it took a group of squatters (meth junkies) to turn a decent well maintained apartment into a festering graffiti covered hell hole with a smell that would make a skunk retch and do any post apocalyptic movie proud (less than 1 week), or i see how many modern Americans live in utter filth when they could easily be sanitary and clean (seriously there are tin shacks in 3 world slums on tv that are better cared for than many city appartments) i wonder just how thin the veneer of civilization is and how little it might take to scrape it off...

Although the day began relatively quietly, by mid-morning on the second day violence appeared widespread and unchecked as heavy looting and fires were witnessed across Los Angeles County. Korean-Americans, seeing the police force's abandonment of Koreatown, organized armed security teams composed of store owners, who defended their livelihoods from assault by the mobs. Open gun battles were televised as Korean shopkeepers exchanged gunfire with armed looters

I'm curious.  What is the impetus for looting during a disaster?  It does not seem to occur in homogenous societies like Japan.  So do people feel that class warfare is an excuse to loot?

[MachineGhost]

Yes, I'm talking about a scenario where there is a lack of instituational control by legitimate governments (state, local, fed), for a time period of weeks or longer. 

Oh I see now.  Those governments are only "legitimate" within context of a disaster because they have the flag and pretense of democracy behind them.

[WildAboutHarry]

Victor Davis Hanson thinks that the sh*t has nearly hit the fan in Central California.

[notsheigetz]

According to some actuarial tables my remaining life expectancy is about 17 years. So I'm going to say no, I don't expect it. If I was 50 years younger I'd say the odds would be around 50/50.

I'm speaking of societal SHTF scenarios, as you described it. Personal SHTF scenarios seem to happen around every 15 years so that is much more of a possibility.

[BearBones]

Yes, SHTF in the next 5-15 years, IMO. We are already well beyond the earth’s carrying capacity for humans in the absence of inexpensive fossil fuels. With increasing resource scarcity, particularly inexpensive petroleum (but also such things as metals, clean water, oceanic fish, and good soil), prices for such things as food and fuel will continue to gradually increase despite increasing periods of economic stagnation in much of the world. There will be increasing wealth inequity, both among individuals and among nations. This will breed anger, resentment, and polarization of beliefs, such as we are already beginning to witness with politics in the US, Europe, and throughout the Middle East. Increasingly we will see anarchy, as the least wealthy rebel against their governments, against the wealthy elite, and against more wealthy nations, especially those who have been perceived as repressive. Much of the world will begin to resemble Libya, Syria, Pakistan, and Sudan.

Won’t happen because of shale oil/gas, nuclear, or alternative energy sources? Wishful thinking. The world is tooled for petroleum, and our economic systems are tooled for sustained exponential growth.  It takes enormous amount of time, energy, and political willpower to retool, even if we are wise enough to agree that a crisis is looming. I fear that it is already too late.

[MediumTex]

Yes, SHTF in the next 5-15 years, IMO. We are already well beyond the earth’s carrying capacity for humans in the absence of inexpensive fossil fuels. With increasing resource scarcity, particularly inexpensive petroleum (but also such things as metals, clean water, oceanic fish, and good soil), prices for such things as food and fuel will continue to gradually increase despite increasing periods of economic stagnation in much of the world. There will be increasing wealth inequity, both among individuals and among nations. This will breed anger, resentment, and polarization of beliefs, such as we are already beginning to witness with politics in the US, Europe, and throughout the Middle East. Increasingly we will see anarchy, as the least wealthy rebel against their governments, against the wealthy elite, and against more wealthy nations, especially those who have been perceived as repressive. Much of the world will begin to resemble Libya, Syria, Pakistan, and Sudan.

Won’t happen because of shale oil/gas, nuclear, or alternative energy sources? Wishful thinking. The world is tooled for petroleum, and our economic systems are tooled for sustained exponential growth.  It takes enormous amount of time, energy, and political willpower to retool, even if we are wise enough to agree that a crisis is looming. I fear that it is already too late.

Sing that peak oil song brother!

[Pointedstick]

So BearBones, I assume your PP must consist of guns, food, water, and leather chaps!   Not a lot of point owning the treasury bonds of a government that's going to be overthrown by the proletariat or shares in corporations that will grind to a halt in the absence of oil, right?

[BearBones]

So BearBones, I assume your PP must consist of guns, food, water, and leather chaps!   Not a lot of point owning the treasury bonds of a government that's going to be overthrown by the proletariat or shares in corporations that will grind to a halt in the absence of oil, right?

Yep. Had had a hard time swallowing LTTs (but I did it anyway for Medium Tex). And I am not much of a gun person, but I am gonna get an AR-15 and Glock (for Craigr).

[Pointedstick]

If you're really serious about this peak oil thing, then guns aren't enough; You're gonna want arable land, too. Then you'll want to build an earthen (i.e. bulletproof) house on it: http://naturalbuildingblog.com/

A deep well is a must, and a woodlot is important if your land is in a cold enough climate that the thermal flywheel effect of your well-designed earthen house isn't enough to moderate the cold winter temperatures and you've decided not to build a passive annual heat storage system.

Consider that it's also possible to grow trees that produce fossil fuels! See:
http://lackingambition.com/?p=973
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copaifera_langsdorffii

Farming is hard all on your own, so you'll want to learn ways to make it more efficient, like hugelkultur and square foot gardening:
http://www.richsoil.com/hugelkultur/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raised-bed_gardening

Good relations with people in your family and community are a must. MT had something to say about this the last time it came up, if I remember correctly.

What a fascinating permanent portfolio this would be. Permanent in an entirely different sense, but probably a much more literal one!

[BearBones]

Thanks for the info, Pointedstick! Had never heard of hugenkultur.
Farm land with some forest and a pond is on my wish list. As for the guns and bullet-proof house, I guess if things were that bad for any sustained period of time, I'd want to move/emigrate some place else. Perhaps Canada or Norway, if either were safer than than the farm/fortress. Thats the theoretical downside of land. Hard to take with you.