100 Days Until Taxmageddon

[MachineGhost]

Sunday will mark the start of the 100-day countdown to “Taxmageddon”? – the date the largest tax hikes in the history of America will take effect.  They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on January 1, 2013:

http://www.atr.org/days-taxmageddon-a7203

The sheer amount of new taxes (20+) in Obamacare is mind boggling.  I'm disgusted.

[Pointedstick]

Welcome to the wonderful world of politicians who don't understand MMR and think that taxes need to be raised to "pay for" their spending.

On the plus side, if congress fails to kick the can down the road and lets this happen, I'm sure it will provoke a great deal outrage against government.

[moda0306]

I'm not sure what's worse, those that think we need tax hikes (one side) and spending cuts (the other side) to "balance the budget" and prevent the impending (cough-nonexistant-cough) debt crisis, or the ones that think raising taxes from multi-decade lows on investment income by 3-7% will cause us to spiral into a Laffer-curve induced Ayn Randian Craptopia where all the country's creative, talented, job-creating elites give up and hide in the mountains of Wyoming.

[Pointedstick]

To be fair, the mountains of Wyoming are quite beautiful.

[moda0306]

PS,

Touche!

[BearBones]

Welcome to the wonderful world of politicians who don't understand MMR and think that taxes need to be raised to "pay for" their spending.

Still not clear on this (yes, since I am too lazy to spend the time to fully comprehend MMR). If debt is increasing exponentially, the economy is stagnating (both of which are applicable), and the interest on the debt is, therefore, increasing exponentially both as a proportion of the deficit and GDP, does this not become a problem for the economy?

[Pointedstick]

Welcome to the wonderful world of politicians who don't understand MMR and think that taxes need to be raised to "pay for" their spending.

Still not clear on this (yes, since I am too lazy to spend the time to fully comprehend MMR). If debt is increasing exponentially, the economy is stagnating (both of which are applicable), and the interest on the debt is, therefore, increasing exponentially both as a proportion of the deficit and GDP, does this not become a problem for the economy?

Think about where the money that all that new debt has created is actually going. It's sitting idle on bank balance sheets, or being used by consumers to pay down debt. The interest payments are not currently a problem because rates are so low, but even when rates rise (as they probably have to eventually), the payments are still denominated in US dollars. The USA can simply create more money to pay the interest. Since the debt is never expected to be paid off, and the interest can be paid off with new debt, and there will always be a market for the debt as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency the US Primary Dealers are required to purchase it at bond auctions, the constraints are inflation and the productivity of the economy. Despite peoples' feelings to the contrary, the economy has actually been growing (albeit slowly) for many quarters. And current conditions are deflationary, leading the new money to only have a very slight inflationary effect.

[BearBones]

Since the debt is never expected to be paid off, and the interest can be paid off with new debt, and there will always be a market for the debt as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency the US Primary Dealers are required to purchase it at bond auctions, the constraints are inflation and the productivity of the economy.

1. Got all that you said except, "the constraints are inflation and the productivity of the economy." Can you clarify?
2. Do you think that it is prudent for politicians to assume that the dollar will always remain the world's reserve currency and primary dealers will always be required to purchase at auctions?
3. If I understand you, with MMR, their should be no problem if defect/gdp is 1, 10, or 1000 and exponentially rising. True? Other countries would be ok with this?

[murphy_p_t]

Welcome to the wonderful world of politicians who don't understand MMR and think that taxes need to be raised to "pay for" their spending.

On the plus side, if congress fails to kick the can down the road and lets this happen, I'm sure it will provoke a great deal outrage against government.

what would challenge your faith in MMR? Would $3500 gold?

[moda0306]

Gold is simply a reflection of real interest rates.  Actual high inflation or actual high interest rates would be a better indicator that MMR should be questioned.

[murphy_p_t]

hmmmm....I would have thought that dumping of paper assets for hard assets and commodities would call the faith into question

[Pointedstick]

hmmmm....I would have thought that dumping of paper assets for hard assets and commodities would call the faith into question

My faith in MMR will go away when it stops accurately describing the way the U.S. monetary system works. As moda said, people buying gold has a lot more to do with interest rates; specifically, negative real interest rates. Demand from emerging markets is big too. If there's anything fearful people have dumped their money into recently, it's actually been treasury securities! Look at how hot the bond auctions have been.

[moda0306]

hmmmm....I would have thought that dumping of paper assets for hard assets and commodities would call the faith into question

"Dumping" of paper assets?  Working men and women having to fill up the gas tank of their car to get to the only job they could find 35 miles away doesn't really qualify as "dumping" of the dollars it takes to fill it.  These people would likely also LOVE to have more than a few thousand of those paper assets in their savings accounts.

We are structurally limited from all moving, on a macroeconomic level, into a condo next to a rail line and selling our cars.  We are structurally predisposed to being stuck with our homes, many miles away from where we work, where we take the only car we can afford @ 25 mpg to get to there, continuing to pay our utility bills, etc.  We simply can't adjust on a dime like that.  Therefore, when energy scarcity presents itself at the time as stagnant incomes and high unemployment (both due to buying too big of a house too far out into the suburbs), we can't pivot very well.  This doesn't mean the dollar is trash when commodity prices rise... it means we've put ourselves in an inflexible position, where banks, energy companies, and foreign oil-exporting countries are the beneficiaries.

Lastly, if we base inflation on the price of gold, then all those complaining about dollar-debasement in the '80's and '90's have some 'splainin' to do.

[Greg]

hmmmm....I would have thought that dumping of paper assets for hard assets and commodities would call the faith into question

"Dumping" of paper assets?  Working men and women having to fill up the gas tank of their car to get to the only job they could find 35 miles away doesn't really qualify as "dumping" of the dollars it takes to fill it.  These people would likely also LOVE to have more than a few thousand of those paper assets in their savings accounts.

We are structurally limited from all moving, on a macroeconomic level, into a condo next to a rail line and selling our cars.  We are structurally predisposed to being stuck with our homes, many miles away from where we work, where we take the only car we can afford @ 25 mpg to get to there, continuing to pay our utility bills, etc.  We simply can't adjust on a dime like that.  Therefore, when energy scarcity presents itself at the time as stagnant incomes and high unemployment (both due to buying too big of a house too far out into the suburbs), we can't pivot very well.  This doesn't mean the dollar is trash when commodity prices rise... it means we've put ourselves in an inflexible position, where banks, energy companies, and foreign oil-exporting countries are the beneficiaries.

Lastly, if we base inflation on the price of gold, then all those complaining about dollar-debasement in the '80's and '90's have some 'splainin' to do.

To your point about driving many miles to work, I was doing that for a while. I then found out about carpool websites which I wish I would have figured out about a long whiles to go. I would think it'd be really useful for people that are money-tight right now for potentially looking into this. I save a lot more this way and met some interesting people that I never knew lived near me and work at the same place approximately. Small world.

[MachineGhost]

think raising taxes from multi-decade lows on investment income by 3-7% will cause us to spiral into a Laffer-curve induced Ayn Randian Craptopia where all the country's creative, talented, job-creating elites give up and hide in the mountains of Wyoming.

The brain drain out of the country itself has been rapidly increasing over the past few years.  True economic freedom requires capital and then it becomes a very simple thing to expatriate to where you're not treated as an enemy of the state.

I don't know about you, but I don't want to be left behind to deal with an dysfunctional environment of clueleess trust fund losers and cluless broke Americans that already comprise 80% of the population, being preyed upon by the parasitical shitheels in DC.

If New Orleans schools are any indication, things will only change for good after the complete destruction of the Federal government and the reset button is hit.

[stone]

think raising taxes from multi-decade lows on investment income by 3-7% will cause us to spiral into a Laffer-curve induced Ayn Randian Craptopia where all the country's creative, talented, job-creating elites give up and hide in the mountains of Wyoming.

The brain drain out of the country itself has been rapidly increasing over the past few years.  True economic freedom requires capital and then it becomes a very simple thing to expatriate to where you're not treated as an enemy of the state.

I don't know about you, but I don't want to be left behind to deal with an dysfunctional environment of clueleess trust fund losers and cluless broke Americans that already comprise 80% of the population, being preyed upon by the parasitical shitheels in DC.

If New Orleans schools are any indication, things will only change for good after the complete destruction of the Federal government and the reset button is hit.

I think the "clueleess trust fund losers" you speak of are a product of a system that causes money to gather more money. They are people who otherwise would have rewarding jobs.

[MachineGhost]

1. Got all that you said except, "the constraints are inflation and the productivity of the economy." Can you clarify?

Read mostly the exchanges between me and Gumby: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... 8#msg27588