pp and inflation. How is calculated on performance charts

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
Arturo
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 100
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2012 1:23 pm

pp and inflation. How is calculated on performance charts

Post by Arturo »

Hi everybody,

i am starting to research about PP, and i have 3 small doubts i am sure are not complex, but i couldn't find anywhere.

1. The first one. On internet, there are some charts that offers information about PP performance, like this ones:

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... l-returns/

http://harrybrowne.org/PermanentPortfolioResults.htm

http://europeanpermanentportfolio.blogs ... folio.html

when we read this charts, is it supposed that inflation is already substract? if we go to crawling road pp table, we obtain a result CAGR of 9.7%. Is this number after inflation? if we go to the USA European Portfolio 1972-2011 table, is the 9.8% average pp performance after inflation, i mean, with 4.5% average inflation substracted? The same with Harry Browne charts?

I am sure i am asking a very basic question, but to me its not that obvious since this charts never clarify this detail.

2. My second question about inflation is about how you calculate it. Lets say i invest 1000$ in PP, and after 1 year, i obtain 1100$. In a first approach, we could say i obtain a return of 10%, but, is this 10% the real return? or i should substract the inflation of this year? lets say it was 3%,  so the real pp return was 7% (lets say for building a chart), but the return i had was 100$ (10%). Could someone give me a clue about where i am having the theorical issue here? :-)

i would like to give my thanks to everybody for giving me the opportunity of writting here and being able to solve my doubts.

Regards,

Arturo.
Gumby
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4012
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 8:54 am

Re: pp and inflation. How is calculated on performance charts

Post by Gumby »

Here's one attempt at adjusting for inflation that I did awhile back... http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... ic.php?t=9
Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.
User avatar
craigr
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2540
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:26 pm

Re: pp and inflation. How is calculated on performance charts

Post by craigr »

Best way to adjust for inflation is to get the average return and CPI figure for that year and calculate the return. The chart I have listed on the website does not have inflation removed as is standard. In the book we published we actually do present numbers inflation adjusted because that gives readers the best view into performance. I may update the performance chart with these figures in the future when I get the time.

For now, you can use Simba's spreadsheet as he does include two values of pre and post inflation return numbers to get the information you are after.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: pp and inflation. How is calculated on performance charts

Post by MachineGhost »

1928 -1.16%
1929 0.58%
1930 -6.40%
1931 -9.32%
1932 -10.27%
1933 0.76%
1934 1.52%
1935 2.99%
1936 1.45%
1937 2.86%
1938 -2.78%
1939 0.00%
1940 0.71%
1941 9.93%
1942 9.03%
1943 2.96%
1944 2.30%
1945 2.25%
1946 18.13%
1947 8.84%
1948 2.99%
1949 -2.07%
1950 5.93%
1951 6.00%
1952 0.75%
1953 0.75%
1954 -0.74%
1955 0.37%
1956 2.99%
1957 2.90%
1958 1.76%
1959 1.73%
1960 1.36%
1961 0.67%
1962 1.33%
1963 1.64%
1964 0.97%
1965 1.92%
1966 3.46%
1967 3.04%
1968 4.72%
1969 6.20%
1970 5.57%
1971 3.27%
1972 3.41%
1973 8.71%
1974 12.34%
1975 6.94%
1976 4.86%
1977 6.70%
1978 9.02%
1979 13.29%
1980 12.52%
1981 8.92%
1982 3.83%
1983 3.79%
1984 3.95%
1985 3.80%
1986 1.10%
1987 4.43%
1988 4.42%
1989 4.65%
1990 6.11%
1991 3.06%
1992 2.90%
1993 2.75%
1994 2.67%
1995 2.54%
1996 3.32%
1997 1.70%
1998 1.61%
1999 2.68%
2000 3.39%
2001 1.55%
2002 2.38%
2003 1.88%
2004 3.26%
2005 3.42%
2006 2.54%
2007 4.08%
2008 0.09%
2009 2.72%
2010 1.50%
2011 2.96%
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Post Reply