RIM / RIMM

[Gosso]

Is RIM a buy?  The angriest man on the internet (aka Market Ticker Guy) seems to think so (LINK), here are some bullet points from the article:

- The new CEO, Heins, has pulled his head out of his butt and has realized that the company is in trouble unless changes are made or a new direction is taken...this is way better than the "steady as she goes" approach that he was preaching when he first took over.
- RIM could easily open up its Playbook and Blackberry phones to the Android Apps Market, which would solve its app problem.
- They seem more open to potentially selling the company.
- RIM has zero debt and is still making lots of money
- RIM seems to be changing its focus to businesses rather than the general public
- Jim Balsille is gone!!!

I am biased since RIM was the pride and joy of Canada for a while, but I still think they can turn into a decent company.  There is also plenty of blood on the streets, and I think there is a good chance the patient will recover.

I am long RIM at $14.

[dualstow]

I'll pass. ;-)

[Storm]

Stick a fork in this company - it's done.  They are 5 years behind Apple and 4 years behind Google in innovation.  You don't overcome technology deficits without more resources and innovation.

You might look at buying their stock when it's trading in the single digit range as a potential acquisition target for AAPL or GOOG to get their customer base.  Also, their Blackberry messaging platform has a lot of users in 3rd world countries.  If AAPL or GOOG acquired them and opened up BBM to iPhone/Android users that would be a big advantage to iPhone or Android users.

I think AAPL or GOOG will let the carcass twist in the wind for a couple more years and get it at real firesale prices.

[Gumby]

- RIM could easily open up its Playbook and Blackberry phones to the Android Apps Market, which would solve its app problem.

Not exactly. My understanding is that they won't be upgrading the OS on current Blackberry 7 phones that they are selling people. So, anyone who buys a Blackberry 7 today phone will have an obsolete phone the second they turn it on.

http://www.businessinsider.com/blackber ... qnx-2011-8

So, the idea that they could "easily" do this for most of their user base appears to be false.

It's funny. I remember purchasing AAPL when it was at $9, back in 2003. At the time, people said AAPL wasn't going anywhere with it's tiny marketshare, etc. I bought some AAPL (a little nervously) the day after Steve jobs demoed the iTunes Music Store to the public. I remember thinking that it was pretty revolutionary in terms of bringing legal downloads to Mac owners for a reasonably price. I knew it had some potential. Didn't think it would have that much potential. But, the point is that you can never tell.

However... RIM doesn't appear to be doing anything revolutionary or groundbreaking as far as I can tell. They just seem to be copying Google and Apple at this point — and doing a lousy job of it, in my opinion. I think they would really need to enter a new market to raise some eyebrows at this point.

[Gosso]

- RIM could easily open up its Playbook and Blackberry phones to the Android Apps Market, which would solve its app problem.

Not exactly. My understanding is that they won't be upgrading the OS on current Blackberry 7 phones that they are selling people. So, anyone who buys a Blackberry 7 today phone will have an obsolete phone the second they turn it on.

http://www.businessinsider.com/blackber ... qnx-2011-8

So, the idea that they could "easily" do this for most of their user base appears to be false.

It's funny. I remember purchasing AAPL when it was at $9, back in 2003. At the time, people said AAPL wasn't going anywhere with it's tiny marketshare, etc. I bought some AAPL (a little nervously) the day after Steve jobs demoed the iTunes Music Store to the public. I remember thinking that it was pretty revolutionary in terms of bringing legal downloads to Mac owners for a reasonably price. I knew it had some potential. Didn't think it would have that much potential. But, the point is that you can never tell.

However... RIM doesn't appear to be doing anything revolutionary or groundbreaking as far as I can tell. They just seem to be copying Google and Apple at this point — and doing a lousy job of it, in my opinion. I think they would really need to enter a new market to raise some eyebrows at this point.

Good point on the Blackberry 7.  This makes me think that many customers are waiting for the BB10 to come out before they upgrade their phone...if any RIM customers are still left...

I'll admit that I'm seeing RIM through my beer-goggles, but it just seems like everyone hates this company so much, and that their stock price is undervalued because of this.  I still have plenty of doubt about their success or even their survival, but I think the stock price reflects this reality pretty well.

I am actually very surprised that Apple didn't buy them out, especially since they easily had the cash to do it.

But to me, the latest conference call with the new CEO seems to indicate that they are moving in a new direction, although we're not too sure where that is yet.

I'm only using a little play money here, so if this baby drops to zero then I'll still be able to eat. 

[Gumby]

I'm only using a little play money here, so if this baby drops to zero then I'll still be able to eat.  :)

That's what I did with AAPL. Now I wish I had put more in it. Unfortunately, I sold it last year (when SJ was getting sick).

I think that's what's turned me off stocks. Even when you pick a winner, you just don't know when to sell and how much to buy. That, and the fact that I'll never be able to pick another AAPL again. That was my one shot to hit it big and I choked. It just seems like even if you pick the right stock, your mind will make it difficult to fully realize its full potential.

At least with the PP it just is what it is.

[Gosso]

I'm only using a little play money here, so if this baby drops to zero then I'll still be able to eat.  :)

That's what I did with AAPL. Now I wish I had put more in it. Unfortunately, I sold it last year (when SJ was getting sick).

I think that's what's turned me off stocks. Even when you pick a winner, you just don't know when to sell and how much to buy. That, and the fact that I'll never be able to pick another AAPL again. That was my one shot to hit it big and I choked. It just seems like even if you pick the right stock, your mind will make it difficult to fully realize its full potential.

At least with the PP it just is what it is.

I'm not losing any sleep or stressing about it, although we'll see how I'm feeling when it falls to $5 or rises to $50.

This is just my version of buying a lottery ticket or going to the casino.  Gotta get my dopamine fix from somewhere.

[MediumTex]

RIMM reminds me of PALM a little more every day.

[Gosso]

RIMM reminds me of PALM a little more every day.

What is this "PALM" you speak of? 

But I see your point, and that is the risk.

[MediumTex]

It looks like it's not quite time to buy RIMM.

[Gosso]

It looks like it's not quite time to buy RIMM.

Haha...I just consider this a minor workout for my volatility sensitivity.  If I can handle an 8% drop in one day, then the PermPort is a cake walk.  Although this does have me wondering where my puke point will be...

RIM is opening up its Blackberry service to iPhones and Androids...so they may be shifting away from hardware and focusing on software/solutions.  Or may even split the company in two, one half hardware and the other software.

Here's another tidbit from The Market Ticker Guy...this made me feel better: Apple to $300

[MediumTex]

It looks like it's not quite time to buy RIMM.

Haha...I just consider this a minor workout for my volatility sensitivity.  If I can handle an 8% drop in one day, then the PermPort is a cake walk.  Although this does have me wondering where my puke point will be...

RIM is opening up its Blackberry service to iPhones and Androids...so they may be shifting away from hardware and focusing on software/solutions.  Or may even split the company in two, one half hardware and the other software.

Here's another tidbit from The Market Ticker Guy...this made me feel better: Apple to $300

My experience with stock action like this is that there is going to be some accounting irregularity reported soon and there will be some kind of downward revision of past earnings.

We'll see what happens.

[Gosso]

My experience with stock action like this is that there is going to be some accounting irregularity reported soon and there will be some kind of downward revision of past earnings.

We'll see what happens.

Possibly.  I have owned RIM since Dec 2011, and have seen it bounce around a lot, mainly from reports of a buyout or the CEO making a dumb comment. So this isn't totally out of the ordinary, although I thought the stock would bounce with the announcement of allowing iPhones and Androids into their network.

Why didn't I sell in January when it hit $18  :'(

[edsanville]

I am actually very surprised that Apple didn't buy them out, especially since they easily had the cash to do it.

Doesn't this imply that Apple didn't see anything worth buying, (or at least not enough to make it worth the price tag)?  Not a good sign...

[alvinroast]

RIMM reminds me of PALM a little more every day.

Thanks for reminding me. I was a PALM fanboy who kept thinking the stock must go back up  (even bought on the way down). I think I must have blacked out that memory for years.

[Gosso]

I am actually very surprised that Apple didn't buy them out, especially since they easily had the cash to do it.

Doesn't this imply that Apple didn't see anything worth buying, (or at least not enough to make it worth the price tag)?  Not a good sign...

There could be egos at play there as well, or Apple thought RIM would continue to decline and could pick them up much cheaper later on...

RIM is up 3.8% as of right now.  WWEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Gosso]

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/ ... ntil-2013/

On Thursday, RIM reported financial results that were far below the expectations of investors on Wall Street and Bay Street. RIM said its losses for the past three months totalled nearly US$200-million and that it expects to see another loss later this summer.

“Wow — what a disaster,”? said Edward Snyder, managing director of Charter Equity Research in San Francisco, who added that RIM is in a “handset death spiral.”?

"At this point, RIM will likely have a difficult time commanding a high price in a sale. As its share price tumbled about 15% in after-hours trade on the Nasdaq stock exchange, RIM’s market capitalization stood at about $4.1-billion."

****!  Epic Fail!  Really didn't think it would be that bad.

Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.
Never catch a falling knife.

[Gumby]

Sorry, Gosso.

On a related note... Remember the days when everyone thought that Blackberry had an edge because it had a tactile keyboard?

http://www.markevanstech.com/2010/12/21 ... rd-stupid/

I remember being surprised at the time that people really believed that the keyboard could never be improved — as if progress never goes forward.

[Gosso]

Sorry, Gosso.

On a related note... Remember the days when everyone thought that Blackberry had an edge because it had a tactile keyboard?

http://www.markevanstech.com/2010/12/21 ... rd-stupid/

I remember being surprised at the time that people really believed that the keyboard could never be improved — as if progress never goes forward.

I'm not too worried about it, I'm only using a little play money...still sucks to lose though!

Now I need to decide if I should wait for a potential sale, or cash my chips in early.  I got to think there will be more potential buyers  after this horrific news.

I cannot believe they have pushed back the BB10 until early 2013, which makes it at least one year late, plus they are laying off a huge portion of the staff, so I doubt they'll even make the 2013 deadline.  What a shit show.

[MediumTex]

There are many lessons embedded in this RIMM fiasco.

I thought RIMM looked appealing at $20 a share, though I didn't buy any. 

This collapse reminds me a bit of when Worldcom went down the toilet in 2001-2002.

Don't be surprised if there isn't some kind of accounting irregularity at RIMM in coming months.  When things start to get ugly it's very tempting to play with the books to make things look less bad for a while.

[Alanw]

Ever heard of PALM?

[MachineGhost]

I cannot believe they have pushed back the BB10 until early 2013, which makes it at least one year late, plus they are laying off a huge portion of the staff, so I doubt they'll even make the 2013 deadline.  What a shit show.

Microsoft is your savior.

[Gosso]

If RIM would have had the BB10 out on time their stock would likely be at least around the $30-40 mark.  There is still a somewhat loyal BB customer base, but most of them have been waiting for the BB10, and in the meantime have likely given-up and switched over to Apple or Google.

I was really thinking that the collapse in their stock price would have motivated them to get the BB10 out in the next couple months...I guess I was wrong.

Ever heard of PALM?

Forget PALM, this is Nortel 2.0.  I also wouldn't be surprised if MT is correct and they are somewhat cooking the books (although they're doing a horrible job of it!).  Sucks for the Canadian technology sector...I guess we'll revert back to lumberjacks and tar-sand miners.

[MediumTex]

If RIM would have had the BB10 out on time their stock would likely be at least around the $30-40 mark.  There is still a somewhat loyal BB customer base, but most of them have been waiting for the BB10, and in the meantime have likely given-up and switched over to Apple or Google.

I was really thinking that the collapse in their stock price would have motivated them to get the BB10 out in the next couple months...I guess I was wrong.

Ever heard of PALM?

Forget PALM, this is Nortel 2.0.  I also wouldn't be surprised if MT is correct and they are somewhat cooking the books (although they're doing a horrible job of it!).  Sucks for the Canadian technology sector...I guess we'll revert back to lumberjacks and tar-sand miners.

FWIW, I have the BB Curve and I'm amazed at how much they have packed into its small case.  It's probably one-half the size of an iPhone and it does what it does pretty well (email+texting+phone+calendar+limited web browsing+a few games+much better battery life than iPhone).

[Gosso]

If RIM would have had the BB10 out on time their stock would likely be at least around the $30-40 mark.  There is still a somewhat loyal BB customer base, but most of them have been waiting for the BB10, and in the meantime have likely given-up and switched over to Apple or Google.

I was really thinking that the collapse in their stock price would have motivated them to get the BB10 out in the next couple months...I guess I was wrong.

Ever heard of PALM?

Forget PALM, this is Nortel 2.0.  I also wouldn't be surprised if MT is correct and they are somewhat cooking the books (although they're doing a horrible job of it!).  Sucks for the Canadian technology sector...I guess we'll revert back to lumberjacks and tar-sand miners.

FWIW, I have the BB Curve and I'm amazed at how much they have packed into its small case.  It's probably one-half the size of an iPhone and it does what it does pretty well (email+texting+phone+calendar+limited web browsing+a few games+much better battery life than iPhone).

I really like the Playbook, it is great for web browsing, plus it has a very long battery life.  All they gotta do is open it up to Google Apps, and then they have a fantastic product at a 1/3 the price of an iPad.  But this would deflate the last remaining ounce of ego left in the board of directors, and we all know that their ego is more important than creating a desirable product.  And yes, I know I'm bitter