Crawling Road Podcast - Episode 3 - Interview with MediumTex

[craigr]

In this podcast I interview frequent forum contributor MediumTex. We discuss Tex’s finding of the Permanent Portfolio, his outlook on uncertainty in the markets, volatility in asset classes and why we should consider negative outcomes in our investing strategy.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... mediumtex/

[Lone Wolf]

Super!  I'm impressed that you managed to book Bruce Campbell for your podcast.

BTW, these podcasts are making me start to enjoy my commute.  (It's kind of sick, frankly.)

[craigr]

Glad you like the podcasts. Tex gave the interview over his new iPad on Skype. The audio worked out pretty well.

[Plurimus]

I listened to all 3 episodes already and looking forward to the next ones! I even promote it on my little modest blog (http://www.plurimus.net/) 

I really enjoyed that you both agreed and mentioned that the Nasim Taleb Black Swan events are really not a new great invention. I like interviews of Nasim Taleb, but think he is a bit "overhyped".

[Storm]

Really love the podcasts guys, keep them coming.  One small suggestion I might make on the audio - the volume levels seem to jump around a lot, from soft, to loud.  You can use a software plugin called a compressor to normalize the volume levels.  This is what a lot of radio producers use to give their voice that "punch" that cuts through the airwaves, but it can also be used to make sure that all levels are equal and some parts aren't louder than others.

One that I really like is this:  http://www.waves.com/Content.aspx?id=279 or http://www.waves.com/Content.aspx?id=255 if you want to go really professional.

It should work with most editing packages that support plugins.  My favorite editor is http://www.sonycreativesoftware.com/soundforgesoftware

Good luck on future podcasts!

[Snowman9000]

Nice work guys.  Now I'm trying to de-anagram "medium tex". 

[craigr]

Really love the podcasts guys, keep them coming.  One small suggestion I might make on the audio - the volume levels seem to jump around a lot, from soft, to loud.  You can use a software plugin called a compressor to normalize the volume levels.  This is what a lot of radio producers use to give their voice that "punch" that cuts through the airwaves, but it can also be used to make sure that all levels are equal and some parts aren't louder than others.

One that I really like is this:  http://www.waves.com/Content.aspx?id=279 or http://www.waves.com/Content.aspx?id=255 if you want to go really professional.

It should work with most editing packages that support plugins.  My favorite editor is http://www.sonycreativesoftware.com/soundforgesoftware

Good luck on future podcasts!

The audio on this was unfortunately recorded through a Skype plug-in which mangled the audio pretty badly. I had to manually adjust parts of the show. I'm not sure if GarageBand has an automatic way to level the volume. I looked but couldn't find one. If anyone has some tips for GarageBand and OS/X let me know. Maybe the speech compression in Garage Band can do it? I'll have to play with it.

[Storm]

Yes, I believe Garageband probably has a built in compression function.  Give it a try and see how it works with your volume levels.  I didn't realize you were running on a Mac.

[Storm]

http://www.thegaragedoor.com/tutorials/audiounits.html

and

http://www.thegaragedoor.com/edit/comp.html

[Lone Wolf]

Most enjoyable.  I especially liked the perspective that took into account the "sweep" of human history, from the very low points to some of our most incredible achievements.  I'm a fairly hardcore optimist but I agree that you have to temper that with the realization that there is no guarantee of a smooth ride (in fact "bumps" are almost a guarantee.)  If society is a fabric knotted together by a series of agreements, it's instructive to consider how many times the knots been undone, moved around, or cut entirely in some instances.

Tex, are you a bit of a history buff by any chance?  I think that my own interest in history for the past few years has made the Permanent Portfolio seem all the more relevant.  Reading history really made me come around in particular on appreciating how gold (an asset that always made me very nervous) has a place in any "diversified" portfolio.  Cortes, after all, didn't come to Tenochtitlan looking to plunder cacao beans or tapir turds.  (History also shows me, incidentally, that silver also has a very long history as a monetary metal as well, although this is admittedly much less emphasized today.  Harry Browne certainly wasn't persuaded and it's hard not to defer to his expertise on all things silver.)

Something else I wanted to mention.  You pointed out that "fully internalizing" the idea that "the future is uncertain" is a difficult thing to do.  It really is.  Human beings are excellent planners.  We've thrived because we are able to make predictions and execute plans but it's hard to know where the "cone of certainty" really ends.  It's one thing to think, "Grok will frighten the gazelle from the east and I'll wait to the west with my spear."  It's quite another to try to predict how millions upon millions of people will react to their own ever-changing circumstances.  (Or what the Fed might decide to do, for that matter.)  Yet we really, really want to feel like we know what's going to happen.  And we instinctively revere this (apparent) ability in others, whether that person is on CNBC or tossing chicken bones around on a dirt floor (or both.)

[smurff]

  Yet we really, really want to feel like we know what's going to happen.  And we instinctively revere this (apparent) ability in others, whether that person is on CNBC or tossing chicken bones around on a dirt floor (or both.)

I can picture the CNBC commentators sitting around and "commentating" as they throw KFC and Church's chicken bones (out of camera view) from the bucket they keep hidden under the newsdesk.  Between commercials they crawl on hands and knees to get a good look at how the bones are laid out on the floor, so they'll know exactly what to talk about when they're back on camera.

I'll bet at the end of each market day, someone comes around with a huge broom and a shovel, just to sweep up the chicken bones from around the newsdesk.  (An intern picks up the other stuff that has to be shoveled.)

[Lone Wolf]

I can picture the CNBC commentators sitting around and "commentating" as they throw KFC and Church's chicken bones (out of camera view) from the bucket they keep hidden under the newsdesk.  Between commercials they crawl on hands and knees to get a good look at how the bones are laid out on the floor, so they'll know exactly what to talk about when they're back on camera.

Ha!  This mental image is going to make it twice as much fun to check out CNBC when I'm strolling through the break room at work.