What return is considered a great start for PP?

[Odysseusa]

What return is considered a great start for PP?

So far, the YTD return for 2012 is:

GLD +6.32%
VTI +4.34%
SHY +0.04%
TLT -1.10%

[craigr]

It's a long way between now and the end of the year. A lot can happen.

I consider a real return above inflation between +3-5% a good year for the portfolio.

[dragoncar]

Cragr, which inflation metric do you use?  CPI, shadow stats, etc.  Not that it affects much, just curious.

[craigr]

Cragr, which inflation metric do you use?  CPI, shadow stats, etc.  Not that it affects much, just curious.

I generally use the CPI and add on a percent or two to account for underreporting.

Although at MIT they have the Billion Prices Project which is probably most accurate of all of them right now (even though it's only been around a couple years). It tends to confirm my +1-2% over CPI theory I've used for years:

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/