Those of you who track silver

[I Shrugged]

Is silver near recent highs? I have a lot of junk silver coinage that I want to turn into gold coins just for space saving. I will keep some but definitely want to sell some. Wondering if it's a good time to do so and too lazy to research, since I'm sure some of you are on top of it.

[pmbug]

Silver is fighting to break through $30 (and $32.5 and then maybe $35). Some analysts are calling for silver to hit $50 by the end of the year or in 2025. There is a structural deficit going on 4 years now (industrial demand for solar panels and EV batteries growing nearly exponentially exceeding mining production) and above ground vault inventory in COMEX/LBMA has been draining. We might hit an inflection point some time in the next 2-3 years where there isn't enough available vault supply to make up the deficit.

There is a decent chance that silver will outperform gold over the next 3-5 years IMO. $.02 FWIW

[I Shrugged]

Thanks bug.

[dualstow]

$36 and a half, wow

[pmbug]

...
There is a decent chance that silver will outperform gold over the next 3-5 years IMO. $.02 FWIW

[dualstow]

I hope Ad Orientem is still kicking and that he is watching this.

[dualstow]

Over US$37/oz

[pmbug]

Silver has been showing surprising strength in the face of war news and potential disruptions with oil and the global economy. I'm not complaining at all, but honestly, I rather expected this Israel-Iran conflict to cause a sell off in silver. That hasn't happened and I have to think that is really bullish. I wonder how much higher silver would be if the missiles weren't flying right now.

[dualstow]

Why a selloff?

[pmbug]

I expected deleveraging for the industrial demand. I'm no expert though and the dynamics of the silver market seem to be changing. Maybe the physical market (underpinning the paper derivatives) really is tighter than we know.

[dualstow]

A silver krug I bought last year is already tarnished

IMG_9967.jpeg (174.1 KiB) Viewed 121291 times

[dualstow]

Surging Silver Prices Prompt Americans to Empty Jewelry Boxes and Coin Jars
Strong industrial demand brings the precious metal’s highest price levels in more than a decade

{ wsj_link }

[seajay]

There's around 500 ounces of silver in each Tomahawk missile.

Given that two nuke states, US and Israel, have confirmed their combined planing and attacking of a non nuke state (Iran) and intentionally hitting nuclear plants, that has the US/Israel in the same category as Russia striking non nuke Ukraine and blowing up dams/hitting nuclear plants etc. Might be appropriate to wait and see what sanctions/actions are thrown at the US/Israel before selling silver/gold. As might such actions accelerate Iran's drive to secure nukes of its own asap, even if from NK, China and/or Russia. Apparently it had already moved a lot out of the places that were hit to elsewhere so its own development of nukes might still be just weeks away. Absent any reasonable negotiations on world forums Israel is perhaps much more likely to become a nuclear mushroom than had it and the US not hit Iran. As has the risk of dirty bombs within major US cities risen significantly. I suspect Iran will just let things quieten down for the time being, agree to negotiate and reduce/stop hostilities, maintain its IRG based control and start planning/developing guerrilla warfare type tactics quietly in the background as it knows that as-is it can't take on the US head to head.

Seeing the price of gold rise when you hold a reasonable chunk in gold isn't always a pleasant experience, sometimes you would prefer it if the price was declining.

[dualstow]

Interesting, cj.
I hate the idea of silver being in a missile. What a waste.

While 482-500oz is widely reported, this source says it’s 10-15oz:
https://cpmgroup.com/silvers-strength-i ... -critical/

[pmbug]

There's around 500 ounces of silver in each Tomahawk missile. ...

Maybe. That's just a rumor and it's been disputed.

https://www.pmbug.com/threads/al-jazeer ... lver.2693/

[pmbug]

Mr. Bateman strikes again (he bought 12.69 million ounces between December and March - physical, not paper):

[pmbug]

Silver looking ready to pop this morning...

[dualstow]

Silver looking ready to pop this morning...

Wow, you weren’t kidding! US$38½

[pmbug]

Back in December/January, when the first round of Trump tariff fears hit the market (before it was clarified that gold and silver bullion were to exempt), EFP spreads blew out and metal flowed heavily from London to New York.

Tariff fears (and EFP spreads) eased on April 2 when exemption policy was clarified. Metal still flowed into COMEX vaults, but LBMA claimed that their vaults were no longer seeing outflows.

Today their isn't any tariff fear driving the metals, but the silver EFP spread is blowing out again. This should encourage bullion banks to move physical metal from London to New York again.

Additionally, the SGE (China) premium to London is also on the rise again albeit less dramatically than the COMEX futures-London spot EFP spread. This should also be encouraging metal to flow from London to China.

It remains an open question as to just how much is left in the well (LBMA vaults). If you trust in their overall vault stock total published once a month number, they claimed to have ~4,642 metric tons of silver free float available at the start of August.

However, SLV and other ETFs have been reporting large increases (over 2,700 metric tons total) to their vault stock this month which is typically just a book entry change of ownership of metal in the London vaults (ie. they have likely been eating at the LBMA's free float all month).

Reports of silver imports from Switzerland appear to be almost two orders of magnitude less than what the ETFs were eating (just ~48 metric tons in July).

The LBMA is due to publish their once a month stock report in a few days. I will be amazed if their report doesn't reflect a drain on the available free float.

It really seems like circumstances are pointing to the LBMA running out of available silver stock in the very near future.

[ochotona]

Jordan Roy-Bryne has studied past silver bull markets, and points out that it's entirely possible that 12-18 months after gold breaks $50 it could be in the $90s. He shows analog charts. It's just in the last few days on YouTube, "The Daily Gold" channel.

[pmbug]

Been reading comments from other pundits/analysts that say similar things. Silver looking like it is ripe for a squeeze like Nickel had recently. Not much resistance left after $50. etc.