Ms. Market "votes" on inflation

[ochotona]

Over the past 9 days, when you compare TIP vs IEF, STIP vs SHY, it seems Ms. Market is voting for disinflation, not inflation over 2 and 7-8 year timeframes.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf ... IP,IEF,TIP

However, 9 days is really short, could be noise, if we check back and it's still there in 1, 3 months, that's a more decisive vote.

[mathjak107]

makes sense because with prices rising here it isn’t a case of we buy this and that .

we don’t have the money so we will have to choose to buy this or that .

someone will always be a loser here in business so inflation isn’t as much an issue as a slow down with higher rates then we typically see in a slow down since the world is souring on our debt and bonds and demanding higher rates.

personally i wouldn’t go out longer than 3 to 3-1/2 years on bonds now as strictly an income vehicle.

there seems to be no bottom for longer term stuff with no end in sight.

the response at auctions have been dismal

[ochotona]

I think there is collusion amongst foreign buyers to not buy. And we would deserve it, sadly. Century Bonds chatter my a$$. They are buying gold.

[boglerdude]

Fed's going to fund the government. Is it worth waiting for them to do QE again tho, with M2 humming along at 7% and stocks at 9%. EDV will go up 60% if they start buying at 2.5%

[welderwannabe]

Agreed. I took the losses back in 2023. Its largely just moved sideways since then, in fact rates are lower than the high back in october of 2023, where the 30 year closed at around 5.1%. I didn't sell then, I can hold on for longer.

However you should all pray I eventually give up and sell, as that is guaranteed when rates will crash. I have the worst luck.