Schwab On Investing podcast
In this episode, Kathy Jones interviews Dr. Richard Clarida, PIMCO's global economic advisor and former vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System.
Dr. Clarida is a managing director in PIMCO's New York office and teaches economics and international affairs at Columbia University. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, serving as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury secretaries. He and Kathy discuss the state of the economy, the way the Fed is structured, and some of the ways that central bankers communicate.
Kathy Jones and Liz Ann also discuss the current state of tariffs and their impact on the bond market, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the implications for both U.S. importers and exporters. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week.
You can read the report Liz Ann mentions, written with Kevin Gordon, here: "Promises: Tariffs Hit Markets."
And you can also check out Liz Ann's monthly Market Snapshot video.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting
Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Last edited by ochotona on Thu Feb 13, 2025 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Schwab On Investing podcast
Reads that she interviewed a couple of true heavyweights.ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 8:13 pm In this episode, Kathy Jones interviews Dr. Richard Clarida, PIMCO's global economic advisor and former vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System.
Dr. Clarida is a managing director in PIMCO's New York office and teaches economics and international affairs at Columbia University. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, serving as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury secretaries. He and Kathy discuss the state of the economy, the way the Fed is structured, and some of the ways that central bankers communicate.
Kathy Jones and Liz Ann also discuss the current state of tariffs and their impact on the bond market, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the implications for both U.S. importers and exporters. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week.
You can read the report Liz Ann mentions, written with Kevin Gordon, here: "Promises: Tariffs Hit Markets."
And you can also check out Liz Ann's monthly Market Snapshot video.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Washington Wise Podcast
Click on title to access the podcast page, or look for it on your mobile device podcast app.
Tariff Clouds Hover Over Stock Markets
Tariff announcements have been coming fast and furious out of the White House, but are they more bark than bite? In this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend is joined by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global investment strategist, to consider the implications of recent tariff announcements and their impact on the markets. They explore how tariffs are influencing investor sentiment, the potential for inflation, and the broader effects on global trade relationships, particularly with Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. Mike and Jeff also discuss the role of central banks in managing economic stability amidst these changes and the emerging competition in artificial intelligence between the U.S. and China. And Jeff offers strategies that investors who are concerned about tariffs might consider.
Mike also shares his perspective on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent appearances on Capitol Hill, the dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the potential creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
Tariff Clouds Hover Over Stock Markets
Tariff announcements have been coming fast and furious out of the White House, but are they more bark than bite? In this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend is joined by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global investment strategist, to consider the implications of recent tariff announcements and their impact on the markets. They explore how tariffs are influencing investor sentiment, the potential for inflation, and the broader effects on global trade relationships, particularly with Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. Mike and Jeff also discuss the role of central banks in managing economic stability amidst these changes and the emerging competition in artificial intelligence between the U.S. and China. And Jeff offers strategies that investors who are concerned about tariffs might consider.
Mike also shares his perspective on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent appearances on Capitol Hill, the dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the potential creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
Re: Washington Wise Podcast
"Tariff announcements have been coming fast and furious out of the White House, but are they more bark than bite?"ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 7:47 am Click on title to access the podcast page, or look for it on your mobile device podcast app.
Tariff Clouds Hover Over Stock Markets
Tariff announcements have been coming fast and furious out of the White House, but are they more bark than bite? In this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend is joined by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global investment strategist, to consider the implications of recent tariff announcements and their impact on the markets. They explore how tariffs are influencing investor sentiment, the potential for inflation, and the broader effects on global trade relationships, particularly with Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. Mike and Jeff also discuss the role of central banks in managing economic stability amidst these changes and the emerging competition in artificial intelligence between the U.S. and China. And Jeff offers strategies that investors who are concerned about tariffs might consider.
Mike also shares his perspective on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent appearances on Capitol Hill, the dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the potential creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
Neither businesses or the market like uncertainty. They prefer certainty.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
I download it, haven't listened yet. Mike Townsend is really good, I met him at a Schwab investor cocktail reception years ago. Nice guy, sharp as a tack.
Do Tariffs Change the Economic Outlook? (With Phil Mackintosh)
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/do-t ... mackintosh
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders start out by discussing the latest developments in economic policy and tariffs. They also cover the latest inflation readings and their implications on the dollar and the Treasury market. Then, Liz Ann sits down with Phil Mackintosh, chief economist and senior vice president at Nasdaq.
They discuss the unique economic cycle in the U.S., post-pandemic, focusing on the interplay between micro- and macroeconomics. Mackintosh explains his thoughts on the role of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's current policy, immigration's impact on the labor force, and the outlook for profit margins and earnings. Phil and Liz Ann also examine the influence of AI on productivity, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, and the challenges faced by small-cap companies. Finally, Mackintosh shares insights on valuation in a growth-oriented economy and outlines the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
You can read Phil Mackintosh's weekly newsletter, Market Makers, on Nasdaq.com.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders start out by discussing the latest developments in economic policy and tariffs. They also cover the latest inflation readings and their implications on the dollar and the Treasury market. Then, Liz Ann sits down with Phil Mackintosh, chief economist and senior vice president at Nasdaq.
They discuss the unique economic cycle in the U.S., post-pandemic, focusing on the interplay between micro- and macroeconomics. Mackintosh explains his thoughts on the role of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's current policy, immigration's impact on the labor force, and the outlook for profit margins and earnings. Phil and Liz Ann also examine the influence of AI on productivity, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, and the challenges faced by small-cap companies. Finally, Mackintosh shares insights on valuation in a growth-oriented economy and outlines the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
You can read Phil Mackintosh's weekly newsletter, Market Makers, on Nasdaq.com.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Steve Cohen says tariffs and DOGE’s cuts are negative
The chairman and CEO of hedge fund Point72 said he turned bearish for the first time in a while after President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy made him worry about inflationary pressures and lower consumer spending. “Tariffs cannot be positive, okay? I mean, it’s a tax,” Cohen said Friday at the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, Florida.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/21/steve-c ... -soon.html
https://youtu.be/7-ttACozP8s?si=N78AK7E80akMm-wK&t=796
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/21/steve-c ... -soon.html
https://youtu.be/7-ttACozP8s?si=N78AK7E80akMm-wK&t=796
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontl ... e-thoughts
Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.
Real or not, the fact these tariffs might happen affects business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects the economy in broader ways. I showed last week how uncertainty surrounding growth and inflation was already high. Adding possible tariffs to the outlook is a further complication—and, in my view, an unnecessary one.
BUT… my view, like yours, is restricted. None of us outside Trump’s inner circle know what the real goals are. What looks like needless chaos might lead to benefits that outweigh the costs.
One potential benefit is revenue. Could the tariffs produce significant tax revenue that would help reduce the federal debt? The president seems to think so. He’s said it many times, often referring to the McKinley era when tariffs represented almost all the government’s tax revenue.
In the current situation, we obviously need all the revenue we can get. But every kind of tax has side effects. The goal should be to create a fair system that produces the necessary revenue at the lowest possible cost for the economy.
Could import tariffs be part of a new system that better accomplishes these goals? I would have once called this unthinkable. But we’ve reached a point with deficits and national debt where we must think the unthinkable. Everything has to be on the table.
But putting everything on the table doesn’t mean everything stays on the table. It just means every idea should get a fair look. That’s what I’ll try to do today.
Would a 20% VAT really raise significant revenue? Roll forward to my 2023 Time to Consider a VAT? letter. I noted a 2022 CBO report analyzing a possible 5% VAT, estimating it would raise $338 billion yearly. But that was for a 5% rate that excluded about 40% of household consumption. A 20% rate on a broader base would obviously raise $2 trillion+, along with a still-large amount of revenue from corporate and income taxes. And the various distortions and perverse incentives of the income tax system would be greatly reduced.
Combined with true spending reform, I think a system like this would go a long way toward solving our fiscal ills and enable more sustainable economic growth. There are two big barriers.
First, the transition would have to be planned carefully to let everyone adjust. It would probably need to be phased in over several years.
Second, the plan would have to address the legitimate fear that the income tax part would get expanded under later administrations, leaving people paying more than were under the old system. I would suggest that the entire scheme only pass IF a constitutional amendment passes requiring a 60% vote in both the Senate and the House to raise the income tax. No amendment, no VAT.
We don’t have to balance the budget to make the bond market go back to sleep at some future crisis. We simply have to get the deficit substantially below nominal GDP (today that would mean about a $1 trillion deficit), keep tight control over government spending, and over time we could grow our way out of the debt crisis.
You might call this a completely unrealistic pipe dream. I get it. And today, it is. But when we are faced with a debt crisis around the end of the decade, we will need solutions. Everything will be on the table. Those who oppose a VAT must offer their own alternative. It can’t simply be “cut entitlements” because that will get nowhere close to majority support, and will be overturned when the next Congress is elected. Cutting entitlements is a death sentence for reelection. Good bad or indifferent, entitlements are here to stay. (Reform them? Absolutely.)
Absent a shift, we will be forced into some kind of budget compromise in the crisis that I believe is coming. It will be a gargantuan change to the planet’s largest economy, not to mention the reserve currency. It could go badly wrong if we don’t get it right. As I keep saying, we are past the point of having easy choices. Anything we do is going to hurt.
I highly doubt anything like this is on Trump’s radar screen, but it should be. He may actually be the only one who can do it. Just as only Nixon could go to China, maybe only Trump can fix the tax system. And tariffs are just tinkering around the edges.
One last thought. This is not doom and gloom. I think it is just realistic. It is also very possible that proper planning can keep you and your family economically viable through this crisis. The important word in that last sentence is planning. Stay tuned…
Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.
Real or not, the fact these tariffs might happen affects business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects the economy in broader ways. I showed last week how uncertainty surrounding growth and inflation was already high. Adding possible tariffs to the outlook is a further complication—and, in my view, an unnecessary one.
BUT… my view, like yours, is restricted. None of us outside Trump’s inner circle know what the real goals are. What looks like needless chaos might lead to benefits that outweigh the costs.
One potential benefit is revenue. Could the tariffs produce significant tax revenue that would help reduce the federal debt? The president seems to think so. He’s said it many times, often referring to the McKinley era when tariffs represented almost all the government’s tax revenue.
In the current situation, we obviously need all the revenue we can get. But every kind of tax has side effects. The goal should be to create a fair system that produces the necessary revenue at the lowest possible cost for the economy.
Could import tariffs be part of a new system that better accomplishes these goals? I would have once called this unthinkable. But we’ve reached a point with deficits and national debt where we must think the unthinkable. Everything has to be on the table.
But putting everything on the table doesn’t mean everything stays on the table. It just means every idea should get a fair look. That’s what I’ll try to do today.
Would a 20% VAT really raise significant revenue? Roll forward to my 2023 Time to Consider a VAT? letter. I noted a 2022 CBO report analyzing a possible 5% VAT, estimating it would raise $338 billion yearly. But that was for a 5% rate that excluded about 40% of household consumption. A 20% rate on a broader base would obviously raise $2 trillion+, along with a still-large amount of revenue from corporate and income taxes. And the various distortions and perverse incentives of the income tax system would be greatly reduced.
Combined with true spending reform, I think a system like this would go a long way toward solving our fiscal ills and enable more sustainable economic growth. There are two big barriers.
First, the transition would have to be planned carefully to let everyone adjust. It would probably need to be phased in over several years.
Second, the plan would have to address the legitimate fear that the income tax part would get expanded under later administrations, leaving people paying more than were under the old system. I would suggest that the entire scheme only pass IF a constitutional amendment passes requiring a 60% vote in both the Senate and the House to raise the income tax. No amendment, no VAT.
We don’t have to balance the budget to make the bond market go back to sleep at some future crisis. We simply have to get the deficit substantially below nominal GDP (today that would mean about a $1 trillion deficit), keep tight control over government spending, and over time we could grow our way out of the debt crisis.
You might call this a completely unrealistic pipe dream. I get it. And today, it is. But when we are faced with a debt crisis around the end of the decade, we will need solutions. Everything will be on the table. Those who oppose a VAT must offer their own alternative. It can’t simply be “cut entitlements” because that will get nowhere close to majority support, and will be overturned when the next Congress is elected. Cutting entitlements is a death sentence for reelection. Good bad or indifferent, entitlements are here to stay. (Reform them? Absolutely.)
Absent a shift, we will be forced into some kind of budget compromise in the crisis that I believe is coming. It will be a gargantuan change to the planet’s largest economy, not to mention the reserve currency. It could go badly wrong if we don’t get it right. As I keep saying, we are past the point of having easy choices. Anything we do is going to hurt.
I highly doubt anything like this is on Trump’s radar screen, but it should be. He may actually be the only one who can do it. Just as only Nixon could go to China, maybe only Trump can fix the tax system. And tariffs are just tinkering around the edges.
One last thought. This is not doom and gloom. I think it is just realistic. It is also very possible that proper planning can keep you and your family economically viable through this crisis. The important word in that last sentence is planning. Stay tuned…
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
We don't have an 1897-1901 style economy any longer. That's when McKinley was President. Humans were not flying fixed-wing aircraft yet. The Ford Model T was 26 years in the future.
We have a tightly integrated, high tech, globalized supply chain world economy now. Tariffs would completely gum up the works. Like I said before, even my little 50-person employer imports server components from Asia, assembles in Mexico using American intellectual property, and ships worldwide. Tariffs do not help us.
But oddly, I might welcome getting laid-off, getting just one more severance package (that would be #4 in my career), and then running out the six month clock on State unemployment... because I'm so close to retirement anyway.
It would be a win for me... but not for America if the same story were to be repeated across the fruited plain.
Re: Do Tariffs Change the Economic Outlook? (With Phil Mackintosh)
I listened to it today, very good segment, covered a lot of ground.ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2025 9:59 am https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/do-t ... mackintosh
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders start out by discussing the latest developments in economic policy and tariffs. They also cover the latest inflation readings and their implications on the dollar and the Treasury market. Then, Liz Ann sits down with Phil Mackintosh, chief economist and senior vice president at Nasdaq.
They discuss the unique economic cycle in the U.S., post-pandemic, focusing on the interplay between micro- and macroeconomics. Mackintosh explains his thoughts on the role of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's current policy, immigration's impact on the labor force, and the outlook for profit margins and earnings. Phil and Liz Ann also examine the influence of AI on productivity, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, and the challenges faced by small-cap companies. Finally, Mackintosh shares insights on valuation in a growth-oriented economy and outlines the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
You can read Phil Mackintosh's weekly newsletter, Market Makers, on Nasdaq.com.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Also good podcast from Schwab... Washington Wise by Michael Townsend. I highly recommend it. I've followed him for decades.
Get Financially Prepared for Uncertain Times - from Charles Schwab
Get Financially Prepared for Uncertain Times - from Charles Schwab
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/get- ... tain-times
Investor anxiety is on the rise as waves of changes continue to roll out of Washington. What are the best steps to take now to gain control over your financial life?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/get- ... tain-times
Investor anxiety is on the rise as waves of changes continue to roll out of Washington. What are the best steps to take now to gain control over your financial life?
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Market Turmoil: It's More Than Just Tariffs
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/mark ... st-tariffs
As tariffs moved from threats to reality, the markets reacted swiftly, giving back all of the gains since Election Day and then some. But tariffs are just one of the concerns for companies and investors alike. Kevin Gordon, director and senior investment strategist with the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins host Mike Townsend to dive into the current state of the markets amid growing uncertainty due to tariffs and their inflationary effects, the implications of immigration policy on the labor market and economic growth, the impact of federal workforce changes and the spillover to local governments, the increasing risks of a recession, and the daunting challenges facing the Fed as it works to balance maximum employment and price stability within a rapidly changing policy landscape. And Kevin shares thoughts on what to focus on when considering what types of companies belong in a portfolio.
Mike offers insights on the ongoing struggle in Congress to avoid a government shutdown, new government policies on crypto currency including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the latest on the efforts on Capitol Hill to craft a massive legislative package to implement the president's policy agenda.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/mark ... st-tariffs
As tariffs moved from threats to reality, the markets reacted swiftly, giving back all of the gains since Election Day and then some. But tariffs are just one of the concerns for companies and investors alike. Kevin Gordon, director and senior investment strategist with the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins host Mike Townsend to dive into the current state of the markets amid growing uncertainty due to tariffs and their inflationary effects, the implications of immigration policy on the labor market and economic growth, the impact of federal workforce changes and the spillover to local governments, the increasing risks of a recession, and the daunting challenges facing the Fed as it works to balance maximum employment and price stability within a rapidly changing policy landscape. And Kevin shares thoughts on what to focus on when considering what types of companies belong in a portfolio.
Mike offers insights on the ongoing struggle in Congress to avoid a government shutdown, new government policies on crypto currency including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the latest on the efforts on Capitol Hill to craft a massive legislative package to implement the president's policy agenda.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
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boglerdude
- Executive Member
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Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Businesses do a good job charging consumers as much as they can pay. If Chinese EVs have a profit margin of 20% and US auto 10%, a 10% tariff on China might be a way to generate revenue. If China wants to give you EVs at nearly cost. . .take them. Exceptions for national security and food. Global Megacorp board members dont like losing profits tho.
Socialists are going to scream reflexively about everything conservatives do until an EMP takes out social media. Anger fuels them.
Socialists are going to scream reflexively about everything conservatives do until an EMP takes out social media. Anger fuels them.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Is Recession on the Horizon?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/is-r ... on-horizon
In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the current sentiment in the market, contrasting consumer sentiment with investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty. They explore the implications of bearish investor attitudes and the potential for a recession and reflect on the anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the economy. The conversation also highlights key economic indicators to watch in the coming week, including retail sales and Fed decisions.
Then, Liz Ann speaks with [Kevin Gordon](https://www.schwab.com/learn/author/kevin-gordon) about the overall economic landscape, focusing on recession indicators, labor market dynamics, and the recent earnings season. They explore the implications of tariff policies on business confidence and the challenges companies face in providing guidance, given the uncertainty.
Kathy and Liz Ann also discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting.
[*On Investing*](https://www.schwab.com/learn/on-investing-podcast) is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/is-r ... on-horizon
In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the current sentiment in the market, contrasting consumer sentiment with investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty. They explore the implications of bearish investor attitudes and the potential for a recession and reflect on the anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the economy. The conversation also highlights key economic indicators to watch in the coming week, including retail sales and Fed decisions.
Then, Liz Ann speaks with [Kevin Gordon](https://www.schwab.com/learn/author/kevin-gordon) about the overall economic landscape, focusing on recession indicators, labor market dynamics, and the recent earnings season. They explore the implications of tariff policies on business confidence and the challenges companies face in providing guidance, given the uncertainty.
Kathy and Liz Ann also discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting.
[*On Investing*](https://www.schwab.com/learn/on-investing-podcast) is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
I have nothing against carefully tailored tariffs designed to hit a specific industry where there is an unfair trade practice.boglerdude wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 12:43 am Businesses do a good job charging consumers as much as they can pay. If Chinese EVs have a profit margin of 20% and US auto 10%, a 10% tariff on China might be a way to generate revenue. If China wants to give you EVs at nearly cost. . .take them. Exceptions for national security and food. Global Megacorp board members dont like losing profits tho.
Socialists are going to scream reflexively about everything conservatives do until an EMP takes out social media. Anger fuels them.
Tariffing goods that you can't produce domestically in the required quantities is insanely stupid, I point out aluminum and oil and potash.
Canadian aluminum: US only produces 16% of what we use, and that's because Quebec can apply their cheap hydropower against their bauxite ore to get metal. And if you're a metal miner or producer, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
I think I've written about ten times... the US Permian Basin shale oil is extremely light, it must be blended with heavy oil to make it run through our refineries which were set up decades ago for a heavier oil. So we can get that heavy oil from... Canada. Venezuela. Russia's Volga-Ural Basin, Brazil's offshore Campos Basin, China's Luda field in Bohai Bay, Mexico, and the Middle East (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). TAKE YOUR PICK!
We do have some heavy crude in California, Alaska, Utah, but these are very mature and quantities are limited. But "drill baby drill" (DBD) you say? Well, the President wants oil prices to be low... Oil E&P companies cannot survive, much less have an aggressive drilling program, at low oil prices. I say this as someone with the welts on my buttocks from when oil crashed in 2014-2015 and Schlumberger thew me out after a long career there (thankfully, I'm retiring from Oil & Gas this year). Low oil prices and DBD are mutually exclusive. Getting heavy oil out of Cali, Alaska, Utah in greater quantities would require oil > $100 per barrel.
Build new refineries? Got a spare $10 - $25 billion for just one? (cut and paste) And if you're a oil refinery, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
Americans currently import 90% of their potash, and about 85% of that coming from operations in Canada. Could we increase our potash production marginally in the US? Sure. Would take years, and a lot of new capital, and higher potash prices, and farmers and food consumers (all of us) are going to get crushed. See notes above as they heavy crude. Same constraints.
The trouble is, we have a spoiled brat of person who thinks that if you get yell and scream you get what you want. No... you can't change economics, engineering, capital markets, or most importantly, GEOLOGY. Mother Nature dealt those cards long ago. I'm sure he thinks he can march some troops into Canada and take it over. I'm sure then we'd become a pariah State, no one would trade with us, and we'd have a decades long insurgency involving asymmetrical warfare on someone home's turf where they know every nook and cranny and they can blend into the populace, and Canadians do have guns out in the country. And their fertilizer and fuel oil... go boom.
Uncertainty destroys market values, because (cut and paste) And if you're a {fill in the blank industiralist}, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Here's the most disturbing thing about a President trying to command and control the economy. With every EO, every angry press conference, even Truth Social post, it gets more and more Soviet style.
Let's say the President thinks oil is too high. It's $67 now, but let's say his polling indicate it has to be $40 for Americans to be happy. Well, oil CEOs are not going to volunteer to bankrupt their firms by drilling into low prices and uncertainty, as stated above. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders.
Would he threaten oil firms with some find of punitive fee... the "you're not drilling enough" fee? You must replace 120% of your production with new proven reserves every year or else you get this significant fee attached to each barrel of oil sold"?
You'd see massive M&A as large companies try to buy proven reserves on the stock market. You'd see oil shares drop and shareholders get hurt. Dividends would get cut, possibly eliminated, as cash is redirected to drilling. Payrolls slashed, and oil company jobs pay well, $150,000-$200,000 is a common salary level. Then when share prices are low, there would be predation on large oil co's itself. Private equity? Foreign buyers?
Or even worse... "those oil CEO bums are doing a poor job, they are enemies of the people, they are fired, the US is going to Nationalize our oil fields and Make America Great Again, the Army will operate the oil industry. Shades of Mexican and Venezuelan nationalization. Good luck with that. Again, speaking as a 4 decade oil industry veteran, it's a damn complicated business. I think it ranks up there with the space industry.
Let's say the President thinks oil is too high. It's $67 now, but let's say his polling indicate it has to be $40 for Americans to be happy. Well, oil CEOs are not going to volunteer to bankrupt their firms by drilling into low prices and uncertainty, as stated above. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders.
Would he threaten oil firms with some find of punitive fee... the "you're not drilling enough" fee? You must replace 120% of your production with new proven reserves every year or else you get this significant fee attached to each barrel of oil sold"?
You'd see massive M&A as large companies try to buy proven reserves on the stock market. You'd see oil shares drop and shareholders get hurt. Dividends would get cut, possibly eliminated, as cash is redirected to drilling. Payrolls slashed, and oil company jobs pay well, $150,000-$200,000 is a common salary level. Then when share prices are low, there would be predation on large oil co's itself. Private equity? Foreign buyers?
Or even worse... "those oil CEO bums are doing a poor job, they are enemies of the people, they are fired, the US is going to Nationalize our oil fields and Make America Great Again, the Army will operate the oil industry. Shades of Mexican and Venezuelan nationalization. Good luck with that. Again, speaking as a 4 decade oil industry veteran, it's a damn complicated business. I think it ranks up there with the space industry.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
"The trouble is, we have a spoiled brat of person who thinks that if you get yell and scream you get what you want. No... you can't change economics, engineering, capital markets, or most importantly, GEOLOGY. Mother Nature dealt those cards long ago. I'm sure he thinks he can march some troops into Canada and take it over. I'm sure then we'd become a pariah State, no one would trade with us, and we'd have a decades long insurgency involving asymmetrical warfare on someone home's turf where they know every nook and cranny and they can blend into the populace, and Canadians do have guns out in the country. And their fertilizer and fuel oil... go boom."ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 8:55 amI have nothing against carefully tailored tariffs designed to hit a specific industry where there is an unfair trade practice.boglerdude wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 12:43 am Businesses do a good job charging consumers as much as they can pay. If Chinese EVs have a profit margin of 20% and US auto 10%, a 10% tariff on China might be a way to generate revenue. If China wants to give you EVs at nearly cost. . .take them. Exceptions for national security and food. Global Megacorp board members dont like losing profits tho.
Socialists are going to scream reflexively about everything conservatives do until an EMP takes out social media. Anger fuels them.
Tariffing goods that you can't produce domestically in the required quantities is insanely stupid, I point out aluminum and oil and potash.
Canadian aluminum: US only produces 16% of what we use, and that's because Quebec can apply their cheap hydropower against their bauxite ore to get metal. And if you're a metal miner or producer, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
I think I've written about ten times... the US Permian Basin shale oil is extremely light, it must be blended with heavy oil to make it run through our refineries which were set up decades ago for a heavier oil. So we can get that heavy oil from... Canada. Venezuela. Russia's Volga-Ural Basin, Brazil's offshore Campos Basin, China's Luda field in Bohai Bay, Mexico, and the Middle East (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). TAKE YOUR PICK!
We do have some heavy crude in California, Alaska, Utah, but these are very mature and quantities are limited. But "drill baby drill" (DBD) you say? Well, the President wants oil prices to be low... Oil E&P companies cannot survive, much less have an aggressive drilling program, at low oil prices. I say this as someone with the welts on my buttocks from when oil crashed in 2014-2015 and Schlumberger thew me out after a long career there (thankfully, I'm retiring from Oil & Gas this year). Low oil prices and DBD are mutually exclusive. Getting heavy oil out of Cali, Alaska, Utah in greater quantities would require oil > $100 per barrel.
Build new refineries? Got a spare $10 - $25 billion for just one? (cut and paste) And if you're a oil refinery, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
Americans currently import 90% of their potash, and about 85% of that coming from operations in Canada. Could we increase our potash production marginally in the US? Sure. Would take years, and a lot of new capital, and higher potash prices, and farmers and food consumers (all of us) are going to get crushed. See notes above as they heavy crude. Same constraints.
The trouble is, we have a spoiled brat of person who thinks that if you get yell and scream you get what you want. No... you can't change economics, engineering, capital markets, or most importantly, GEOLOGY. Mother Nature dealt those cards long ago. I'm sure he thinks he can march some troops into Canada and take it over. I'm sure then we'd become a pariah State, no one would trade with us, and we'd have a decades long insurgency involving asymmetrical warfare on someone home's turf where they know every nook and cranny and they can blend into the populace, and Canadians do have guns out in the country. And their fertilizer and fuel oil... go boom.
Uncertainty destroys market values, because (cut and paste) And if you're a {fill in the blank industiralist}, and you're going to evaluate various scenarios for decades long cash flows and you require let's say a 20% Internal Rate of Return on your projects, and you're not sure if the tariff are really durable or not, are you going to go to the markets and seek billions in debt or equity financing and risk stranding that capital if tariffs come off someday? No you are not. You're going to sit on your hands and optimize with the plant and equipment you've got, adjust your staff up and down, and see what tariffs look like after January 2029.
Getting down to the roots of the problem!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Thanks for all the information you are providing to us as an insider in your attempt to get our eyes wider open.ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:15 am Here's the most disturbing thing about a President trying to command and control the economy. With every EO, every angry press conference, even Truth Social post, it gets more and more Soviet style.
Let's say the President thinks oil is too high. It's $67 now, but let's say his polling indicate it has to be $40 for Americans to be happy. Well, oil CEOs are not going to volunteer to bankrupt their firms by drilling into low prices and uncertainty, as stated above. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders.
Would he threaten oil firms with some find of punitive fee... the "you're not drilling enough" fee? You must replace 120% of your production with new proven reserves every year or else you get this significant fee attached to each barrel of oil sold"?
You'd see massive M&A as large companies try to buy proven reserves on the stock market. You'd see oil shares drop and shareholders get hurt. Dividends would get cut, possibly eliminated, as cash is redirected to drilling. Payrolls slashed, and oil company jobs pay well, $150,000-$200,000 is a common salary level. Then when share prices are low, there would be predation on large oil co's itself. Private equity? Foreign buyers?
Or even worse... "those oil CEO bums are doing a poor job, they are enemies of the people, they are fired, the US is going to Nationalize our oil fields and Make America Great Again, the Army will operate the oil industry. Shades of Mexican and Venezuelan nationalization. Good luck with that. Again, speaking as a 4 decade oil industry veteran, it's a damn complicated business. I think it ranks up there with the space industry.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Rapid policy changes are fueling rising prices and slowing economic growth, raising concerns in the bond markets. How can fixed income investors navigate these challenges
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond ... w-policies
On this episode of WashingtonWise, Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, joins host Mike Townsend to discuss the numerous economic uncertainties plaguing the economy, including tariffs, rising inflation concerns, and the potential for a recession. They discuss the challenges facing the Federal Reserve, how changing international dynamics are impacting the dollar, and the reaction of the bond market to it all. Kathy shares her perspective on corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and international bonds and offers her insights on how fixed income investors can navigate this volatile environment.
Mike also discusses recent legislative developments in Washington, including the continuing resolution Congress just passed to avoid a government shutdown and the challenge Congress now faces as the House and Senate work to align their budget and tax plans. He also shares his thoughts on the significant changes occurring at the SEC under the new administration. WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bond ... w-policies
On this episode of WashingtonWise, Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, joins host Mike Townsend to discuss the numerous economic uncertainties plaguing the economy, including tariffs, rising inflation concerns, and the potential for a recession. They discuss the challenges facing the Federal Reserve, how changing international dynamics are impacting the dollar, and the reaction of the bond market to it all. Kathy shares her perspective on corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and international bonds and offers her insights on how fixed income investors can navigate this volatile environment.
Mike also discusses recent legislative developments in Washington, including the continuing resolution Congress just passed to avoid a government shutdown and the challenge Congress now faces as the House and Senate work to align their budget and tax plans. He also shares his thoughts on the significant changes occurring at the SEC under the new administration. WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Trends in the Labor Market & More Tariffs (With Nela Richardson of ADP)
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tren ... richardson
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss the latest round of tariffs issued by the Trump administration—and how they might impact the economy going forward. Then, Kathy sits down with Dr. Nela Richardson, the chief economist of ADP Research.
They discuss the role of ADP in providing payroll services and employment data. They also cover the current trends in the labor market, the impact of immigration, and the demographic changes affecting the economy. They explore the dynamics of the manufacturing sector, the implications of AI on the future of work, and the importance of soft skills in the evolving job landscape. The discussion highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various challenges.
Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.
You can learn more about Nela's collaboration with Marketplace and American Public Media here: The Age of Work.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tren ... richardson
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss the latest round of tariffs issued by the Trump administration—and how they might impact the economy going forward. Then, Kathy sits down with Dr. Nela Richardson, the chief economist of ADP Research.
They discuss the role of ADP in providing payroll services and employment data. They also cover the current trends in the labor market, the impact of immigration, and the demographic changes affecting the economy. They explore the dynamics of the manufacturing sector, the implications of AI on the future of work, and the importance of soft skills in the evolving job landscape. The discussion highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various challenges.
Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.
You can learn more about Nela's collaboration with Marketplace and American Public Media here: The Age of Work.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
Tariffs Continue to Fuel Market Uncertainty
The U.S. markets and economy are at the mercy of tariffs that are rewriting long-standing global trade policy. How can investors keep calm amid extraordinary volatility?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tari ... ncertainty
The administration's ever-evolving trade and tariff policy has sent the markets on a wild ride not seen in two decades. In this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend dives into what's driving the administration's tariff agenda and how the markets are responding. He also considers the broader implications for the U.S. economy, the tricky task facing the Fed, and the struggle on Capitol Hill to move forward with the president's tax agenda. Stephanie Shadel, a senior wealth manager at Schwab, joins Mike to discuss what investors can do in the face of these unprecedented challenges.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tari ... ncertainty
The administration's ever-evolving trade and tariff policy has sent the markets on a wild ride not seen in two decades. In this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend dives into what's driving the administration's tariff agenda and how the markets are responding. He also considers the broader implications for the U.S. economy, the tricky task facing the Fed, and the struggle on Capitol Hill to move forward with the president's tax agenda. Stephanie Shadel, a senior wealth manager at Schwab, joins Mike to discuss what investors can do in the face of these unprecedented challenges.
WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab.
Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Making America great again - bringing manufacturing back to the US
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boglerdude
- Executive Member
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Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
^ yeah, no one wants those jobs. But millions of Americans need them. Including the unskilled immigrants we welcomed across the border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfrKSTzY2mo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgCabQ_jZm8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfrKSTzY2mo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgCabQ_jZm8