Not yet coming here? [to the Forum]

[yankees60]

Historically when we've had similar times as this ... there have been people coming here for an alternative?

However, from the last time I checked on March 28, 2025 -- 8 days ago -- the forum has only gained 4 new members.

We are not getting new people here:

Here are total posts going backwards from people who joined on the specified date:

March 10, 2025 - 2
February 12, 2025 - 1
February 10, 2025 - 1
February 6, 2015 - 2
January 22, 2025 - 1
November 21, 2024 - 3
October 25, 2024 - 1
September 24, 2024 - 1
September 4, 2024 - 1
August 26, 2024 - 18
March 23, 2024 - 1
February 1, 2024 - 11
January 24, 2024 - 2
January 16, 2024 - 1
January 13, 2024 - 71

So going all the way back to January 2024 -- over 15 months ago -- only two members who have really posted and only one who has had any real degree of activity.

How did you find your way here?

I found it after reading all about the Permanent Portfolio at Bogleheads. I came here after first reading all I could there and being informed of the existence of this forum.

I've seen that there are now three active topics on Bogleheads that have been resurrected regarding the Permanent Portfolio but it's not yet translated to new members joining us.

[mathjak107]

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch .

there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp .

there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk today.

especially since capital preservation techniques used by hedge funds to protect the wealthy which are now available as etfs since they got sec approval

[flyingpylon]

Most of the current discussions on this forum are not really about the Permanent Portfolio, and it's been that way for years.

[coasting]

Historically when we've had similar times as this ... there have been people coming here for an alternative?

Is it really that bad (yet)? I mean stocks are down sure, but I think S&P 500 is only down ~13% YTD. Excepting some federal employees (and not to make light of their situation), employment is still strong, people are still spending and living their lives. Now the GFC, that was tough - people losing jobs, homes, and stock market cratered. Hopefully nothing that severe comes to pass.

How did you find your way here?

I found it after reading all about the Permanent Portfolio at Bogleheads. I came here after first reading all I could there and being informed of the existence of this forum.

I cannot remember for sure, but I think I may have discovered this forum exactly as you did. I do remember reading a lot about the PP in Bogleheads thread. There was the old crawlingroad website (anagram for Craig Rowland) and he and Medium Tex wrote their book. They both used to be active here, but the site hasn't had a "famous" champion for some time. Closest has been Tyler from Portfoliocharts who has chimed in from time to time.

I've seen that there are now three active topics on Bogleheads that have been resurrected regarding the Permanent Portfolio but it's not yet translated to new members joining us.

I will check for those, but I don't post at Bogleheads. Have you invited anyone on those threads to gyroscopicinvesting?

One thing that I think would really help is to revamp the sticky threads under each asset. I mean the links don't go anywhere, right? If someone finds their way here, shouldn't they be able to read about some of the basic PP philosophy. For example, what if the Permanent Portfolio Discussion section included a sticky listing the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety?

BTW Vinny, I do appreciate that you are active poster and interested in the vibrancy of the forum.

[yankees60]

Historically when we've had similar times as this ... there have been people coming here for an alternative?

Is it really that bad (yet)? I mean stocks are down sure, but I think S&P 500 is only down ~13% YTD. Excepting some federal employees (and not to make light of their situation), employment is still strong, people are still spending and living their lives. Now the GFC, that was tough - people losing jobs, homes, and stock market cratered. Hopefully nothing that severe comes to pass.

How did you find your way here?

I found it after reading all about the Permanent Portfolio at Bogleheads. I came here after first reading all I could there and being informed of the existence of this forum.

I cannot remember for sure, but I think I may have discovered this forum exactly as you did. I do remember reading a lot about the PP in Bogleheads thread. There was the old crawlingroad website (anagram for Craig Rowland) and he and Medium Tex wrote their book. They both used to be active here, but the site hasn't had a "famous" champion for some time. Closest has been Tyler from Portfoliocharts who has chimed in from time to time.

I've seen that there are now three active topics on Bogleheads that have been resurrected regarding the Permanent Portfolio but it's not yet translated to new members joining us.

I will check for those, but I don't post at Bogleheads. Have you invited anyone on those threads to gyroscopicinvesting?

One thing that I think would really help is to revamp the sticky threads under each asset. I mean the links don't go anywhere, right? If someone finds their way here, shouldn't they be able to read about some of the basic PP philosophy. For example, what if the Permanent Portfolio Discussion section included a sticky listing the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety?

BTW Vinny, I do appreciate that you are active poster and interested in the vibrancy of the forum.

"Have you invited anyone on those threads to gyroscopicinvesting?"

I've not invited anyone here. Nor have I read a post in any of those topics yet. Just noticed the topics.

[dualstow]

One thing that I think would really help is to revamp the sticky threads under each asset. I mean the links don't go anywhere, right? If someone finds their way here, shouldn't they be able to read about some of the basic PP philosophy. For example, what if the Permanent Portfolio Discussion section included a sticky listing the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety?

That’s a good idea. I’m getting on a plane tomorrow and will be back in about a week. And, my water heater just broke, so I’ll be dealing with that. But after that, I’ll ask Xan about it. Would love to help with stickies and organization.

[yankees60]

One thing that I think would really help is to revamp the sticky threads under each asset. I mean the links don't go anywhere, right? If someone finds their way here, shouldn't they be able to read about some of the basic PP philosophy. For example, what if the Permanent Portfolio Discussion section included a sticky listing the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety?

That’s a good idea. I’m getting on a plane tomorrow and will be back in about a week. And, my water heater just broke, so I’ll be dealing with that. But after that, I’ll ask Xan about it. Would love to help with stickies and organization.

Is it not a case of?


Have iPad Mini, Will Travel?

[dualstow]

Case of?

I don’t understand your question, Vin.

[yankees60]

Case of?

I don’t understand your question, Vin.

Then you must be too young to get the reference to ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Have_Gun_ ... ill_Travel

[mathjak107]

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch .

there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp .

there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk today.

especially since capital preservation techniques used by hedge funds to protect the wealthy which are now available as etfs since they got sec approval

today was a good example of when nothing holds up as treasuries and gold got hammered despite the fall in stocks

[glennds]

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch .

there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp .

there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk today.

especially since capital preservation techniques used by hedge funds to protect the wealthy which are now available as etfs since they got sec approval

today was a good example of when nothing holds up as treasuries and gold got hammered despite the fall in stocks

Just remember, the asset classes don't react in real time. What we have right now is so sudden and volatile, that it may take a while for a direction to emerge for the Permanent Portfolio to even respond. HB laid out four economic conditions between Prosperity, Recession, Inflation and Deflation.
We've been in an inflationary environment, with some degree of prosperity in terms of corporate earnings, so gold and stocks have been doing well.
But this week, where are we? Could these tariffs cause a deflationary shock? Are we facing stagflation? What might happen to the credit markets and liquidity? In the past week spreads have widened.

If we end up with stagflation, then the Fed is in a real bind due to a competing dual mandate. What if they have rising unemployment due to recession but inflation at the same time? Can't reduce rates or inflation will go crazy. Can't raise them because that might further the recession and aggravate unemployment. It's a conundrum.

The PP or some similar strategy is probably a good place to be, but it may take some time and clarity for it to react, at least enough for it to hold its ground.
Still not a free lunch, but if capital preservation is the goal, I can't come up with any better suggestions at this moment.

[Smith1776]

"...it's like a rudder on a ship!"

- Craig Rowland

[mathjak107]

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch .

there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp .

there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk today.

especially since capital preservation techniques used by hedge funds to protect the wealthy which are now available as etfs since they got sec approval

today was a good example of when nothing holds up as treasuries and gold got hammered despite the fall in stocks

Just remember, the asset classes don't react in real time. What we have right now is so sudden and volatile, that it may take a while for a direction to emerge for the Permanent Portfolio to even respond. HB laid out four economic conditions between Prosperity, Recession, Inflation and Deflation.
We've been in an inflationary environment, with some degree of prosperity in terms of corporate earnings, so gold and stocks have been doing well.
But this week, where are we? Could these tariffs cause a deflationary shock? Are we facing stagflation? What might happen to the credit markets and liquidity? In the past week spreads have widened.

If we end up with stagflation, then the Fed is in a real bind due to a competing dual mandate. What if they have rising unemployment due to recession but inflation at the same time? Can't reduce rates or inflation will go crazy. Can't raise them because that might further the recession and aggravate unemployment. It's a conundrum.

The PP or some similar strategy is probably a good place to be, but it may take some time and clarity for it to react, at least enough for it to hold its ground.
Still not a free lunch, but if capital preservation is the goal, I can't come up with any better suggestions at this moment.

i don’t know about it being the best choice in these kind of down blasts .

yesterday was awful for gold treasuries and stocks and if did damage that can be hard to recover from

tlt was down 3.02%

gold down 2.15%

vti down .33

the big hits in long term treasuries make if difficult to get out of .

[yankees60]

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch .

there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp .

there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk today.

especially since capital preservation techniques used by hedge funds to protect the wealthy which are now available as etfs since they got sec approval

today was a good example of when nothing holds up as treasuries and gold got hammered despite the fall in stocks

After I read what you wrote here ... I later heard that that treasuries and gold were being sold to cover the fall in stocks.

[mathjak107]

the pp has been acting worse than a 60/40 as the various other assets get hit along with stocks .

so far no protection at all.

all that happens is the hole it has to climb out of if things shift gets deeper.

it really has been no better and is actually been worse then 25% equities and some 1-3 year bonds as far as downside goes in the environments we are encountering .

the world has already soured on our treasuries as seen by the weak auction results yesterday and it’s going to get worse most likely because we isolated ourselves

[glennds]

the pp has been acting worse than a 60/40 as the various other assets get hit along with stocks .

so far no protection at all.

all that happens is the hole it has to climb out of if things shift gets deeper.

it really has been no better and is actually been worse then 25% equities and some 1-3 year bonds as far as downside goes in the environments we are encountering .

the world has already soured on our treasuries as seen by the weak auction results yesterday and it’s going to get worse most likely because we isolated ourselves

How can you say this?

According to my numbers a 60/40 portfolio YTD through yesterday was showing -3.62.
My PP was showing -1.41.
Gold is up YTD about 14%, continuing to rise today.
S&P down about 14% YTD.
Once again, I think you have to give the PP a short time to react, the shifting is not an instantaneous process. Plus things are unusually volatile right now. The direction of where this might head is unclear and mostly in the hands of one person.

Definitely there are problems in the bond market that should concern everyone. Not sure if it is due to trade unwinding, or whether there is a deeper problem. The tariff/trade war/recession crisis may be the tip of an iceberg that turns into structural dislocation in the global financial system, which relies on a stable Treasury market.
There's not much the Fed can do with regard to rate policy, but it may have to step in and become the supplemental or replacement buyer of Treasuries in order to prevent runaway yield.

[dualstow]

Case of?

I don’t understand your question, Vin.

Then you must be too young to get the reference to ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Have_Gun_ ... ill_Travel

Ah. I’ve actually heard a few episodes of ‘Have Gun Will Travel’ on a cassette of old radio shows (already old shows when I was a kid). I don’t remember the ‘Case of’ part

[ochotona]

There's not much the Fed can do with regard to rate policy, but it may have to step in and become the supplemental or replacement buyer of Treasuries in order to prevent runaway yield.

Note to self... if 30-year hits 15% again like in 1980, buy it.

[yankees60]

Ah. I’ve actually heard a few episodes of ‘Have Gun Will Travel’ on a cassette of old radio shows (already old shows when I was a kid). I don’t remember the ‘Case of’ part

The name of the show was "Have Gun, Will Travel".

I interpreted that to mean if he had his gun he'd travel.

I was asking a parallel question to you.

Is this a case of "Have iPad Mini, Will Travel".

Meaning if you have your iPad Mini you'd travel.

As a side note, I do like the iPad Mini. Way, way bigger than a phone, way lighter than an iPad, so overall a much better portable device to take with you out of the house and actually store on your body.

[Hal]

Ah. I’ve actually heard a few episodes of ‘Have Gun Will Travel’ on a cassette of old radio shows (already old shows when I was a kid). I don’t remember the ‘Case of’ part

The name of the show was "Have Gun, Will Travel".

I interpreted that to mean if he had his gun he'd travel.

You may wish to visit the Internet Archives and check out some of the files

https://archive.org/download/OTRR_Maint ... Travel.jpg


<snip>
According to series creators Sam Rolfe and Herb Meadow, the title came from an old vaudeville gag, “Have Tux—Will Travel” and was never intended to be the official title. “It was just a gag with us and even when we filmed the pilot reel we figured ‘Have Gun’ was just a working title,” Rolfe said. But the more they said it, the more they liked it, and so they went with it. (Johnson, 1958)

[glennds]

There's not much the Fed can do with regard to rate policy, but it may have to step in and become the supplemental or replacement buyer of Treasuries in order to prevent runaway yield.

Note to self... if 30-year hits 15% again like in 1980, buy it.

Two words:
Counterparty risk

[ochotona]

Oh sure. Always.

[welderwannabe]

Yah its been hard lately being in LTT's for sure.

[mathjak107]

not just lately .

TLT is still, negative over the 1 yr , 3yr , 5 yr and 10 year periods INCLUDING ALL INTEREST

[dualstow]

I hate looking at TLT in my Roth IRA, but I don’t mind looking at my LTT’s that I hold directly.

It’s funny that a thread that’s supposed to be about people not coming to the forum, ostensibly because there aren’t enough conversations about the pp itself, has become a thread about the pp itself.