PP and Tactical Asset Allocation

[Bonafede]

Random question...but has anybody looked at how using market timing based on 10 SMA could be applied to the PP? Clive, I know you've done quite a bit of analysis using your SL7, but I can't recall if you've talked specifically applying this to the PP...using the core components??

For the record, I'm not advocating market timing, but rather just curious of the impact of applying the Ivy Portfolio concept of using the 10 SMA to the PP.

Just food for thought....

-b

[craigr]

This past spring the moving averages showed a clear sell signal when the total stock market index was around $26. Today the total stock market is trading near $30. The signals are now showing a buy and that opportunity to get that gain from $26 to $30 is now gone. Then there is of course the loss that happened riding the market down from $30 to $26 before you sold due to the signal. This is the classic whipsaw problem in market timing. Here is the one year chart showing what I mean:

[Bonafede]

Well perhaps makes for something to consider. For me, I'm definitely content with the PP, and then a VP to 'play' with the TAA.

Thanks!

-b