I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

[dualstow]

I will need to do some modelling work

How did this thread drift into fashion?

[Hal]

I will need to do some modelling work

How did this thread drift into fashion?

Easily!

[dualstow]

ahahahahahah!

[bitcoininthevp]

you can for instance program a transaction to either be accepted or rejected subject to other criteria.

Bitcoin has smart contracts. In fact each Bitcoin transaction is a series of contracts.

Ethereum is also already becoming the accepted 'regulated' (official) network.

No need for Ethereum or a blockchain if you're going for regulated networks. Just some feds running a central database will do.

[Xan]

you can for instance program a transaction to either be accepted or rejected subject to other criteria.

Bitcoin has smart contracts. In fact each Bitcoin transaction is a series of contracts.

Ethereum is also already becoming the accepted 'regulated' (official) network.

No need for Ethereum or a blockchain if you're going for regulated networks. Just some feds running a central database will do.

Etherium has smart contracts too, in fact that was a big point during the NFT craze: that the creator of the work could be paid a percentage each time the work was involved in a transaction. However, a bunch of marketplaces recently decided they would no longer pay that royalty fee. Turns out that built-in smart contract actually doesn't mean anything.

[bitcoininthevp]

Etherium has smart contracts too, in fact that was a big point during the NFT craze: that the creator of the work could be paid a percentage each time the work was involved in a transaction. However, a bunch of marketplaces recently decided they would no longer pay that royalty fee. Turns out that built-in smart contract actually doesn't mean anything.

Much of "crypto" is decentralized theater.

[ppnewbie]

Gold has a 10 year CAGR of 3.46 percent. It feels like a super tanker moving very slowly (reflecting an inflationary environment).

[mathjak107]

gold is a competitor to the dollar ..at 3.46% the last 10 years it out performed cash instruments

[ochotona]

I realize now that all of the conventional inflation narratives around gold are BS. "Gold responds to inflation" - August 2020 until now really disproves that.

[yankees60]

I realize now that all of the conventional inflation narratives around gold are BS. "Gold responds to inflation" - August 2020 until now really disproves that.

William Bernstein told us that 10 years ago!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth ... f5f18765b3

Inflation

Here is one of Bernstein's most interesting contributions. First of all, a serious inflation shock is the most probable big risk we face. Second, everything you know about how to cope with it is wrong.

Gold, it turns out, is no great inflation hedge. In serious inflations, it behaves like any real asset -- keeping pace with CPI but little more (which also means you need a lot of it to do you any good). Commodity producers, it turns out, have worked better. The cheapest solution is to hold an internationally diversified stock portfolio, so that rampant inflation in the U.S. can be offset by more stable returns from foreign stocks. A long-term, fixed rate mortgage tied to a house not purchased in a bubble will also offer an offset. Finally, there are inflation-protected bonds for those who want them.

[ppnewbie]

How about US domestic stocks. I thought in a general inflationary environment they go up as well. That seems to me to be the easiest inflation hedge. And gold seems to be a long term inflation hedge and maybe a chaos hedge.

[Pet Hog]

My experience with holding gold is that, in the short term, it's a noncorrelated asset (meaning its not correlated with anything, including current affairs or inflation) and that it tends to move in cycles/trends that are evident over maybe a decade. Long term, it mirrors inflation -- more precisely, currency devaluation, but that's a messy thing that's not easy to quantify short-term. As such, gold's a useful asset for portfolios that rebalance with a frequency of less than a decade but more than annually, maybe every three to five years, such as the PP with rebalance bands.

My gut feeling is that gold has reached a new support level and that we won't be going below, say, $1600 again. But who knows?

[ochotona]

Since July 31, 2021, gold is -2% and TLT is -47%. That's a really good argument for having gold. And now, gold is starting to buck the ten year real yield. There is scant argument to be made for a 90 y.o. person to hold stocks, but in addition to bonds I bought GLDM for my Mom, and looking back, I am soooo glad I did. The gold and cash have held the roof up.

[dualstow]

Yes, Ocho.
Gold is definitely rising in a monkey’s paw, this-is-not-how-I-wanted-my-wish-granted way.