Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

[whatchamacallit]

https://youtu.be/FJ8AfnuhqA0

Gundlach still recommending Permanent Portfolio but replaces gold with commodities.

[perfect_simulation]

Thanks for sharing, yeah a 60/40 this year would be nothing but pain. PP is having some pain but its quite minimal in comparison

[Hal]

On the 60/40 pain....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds ... ear-record

[Hal French]

Interesting, in that the PP ETF, PRPFX, deviates from the HBPP with additional investments in silver, Swiss Francs and... real estate. Not that it's any great shakes, but PRPFX was (just barely) ahead for the year as of earlier this week, but took a tumble starting Wednesday.

[perfect_simulation]

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s

[mathjak107]

Thanks for sharing, yeah a 60/40 this year would be nothing but pain. PP is having some pain but its quite minimal in comparison

For comparison the 25% equity model i use which is 41% short term treasuries, 17% total bond , 17% high income and 25% equities

is down 7.80% ytd ..not including today

Pp is down about 9% not including today

So clearly the fact the pp has defensive assets like long term treasuries and gold really has brought nothing special to the party .

Pretty much any portfolio with 25% equities and a mix of short to intermediate term bonds would pretty much be right in there within 1 percent or so .

This is just a crappy market where it doesn’t really matter what the supporting assets to equities are.

Considering the pounding long term treasuries took , the pp really is not doing so bad when compared to other portfolios of equal equities and more conventional holdings .

It isn’t a knock on the pp , as everything seems to be down about the same… it just means that so far there is nothing unique going on in the pp as far as sparing it any better then any other portfolio with a similar equity allocation

[dualstow]

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s

Cool. I've only watched a few Gundlach interviews over the years and they were short, and really just about bonds. I had no idea that he sometimes uses the PP as a starting point!

[mathjak107]

Plan old wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%.

So for all those who kept saying just wait for the stock decline and watch the pp protect you , well here is your stock decline .

The pp is now lagging my conventional 25% equity model which is 25% equities , 17% high yield , 41% short term treasuries and 17% total bond


Pp down minus 10.5 according to Morningstar

Conventional 25% model down 8.8%

So right up to 40% equities the pp has still not lessened the pain
.

All models of close equity allocation are in the same ball park
Just sayin

[Jack Jones]

I told you so.

Thanks, good contribution to the forum.

[boglerdude]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over tho

[mathjak107]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over yet tho

Exactly …

I would think users of the pp would want to know if they are getting the benefit the pp is supposedly known for .

After all look at all the posters here saying just wait until stocks slide .

Well it happened , so I would think users would want to know how it compares to other conservative models.

It is doing no better and no worse right now …perhaps a little worse compared to some like Wellesley or the insight income model

[joypog]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over yet tho

Exactly …

I would think users of the pp would want to know if they are getting the benefit the pp is supposedly known for .

After all look at all the posters here saying just wait until stocks slide .

Well it happened , so I would think users would want to know how it compares to other conservative models.

It is doing no better and no worse right now …perhaps a little worse compared to some like Wellesley or the insight income model

Interesting. I compared the PP vs a 60/40 and a 40/60 (like Wellsey) on portfolio visualizer and the PP lost out to both of those (even after I put a built in a heavy 10% cash allocation (emergency fund) in the stock/bond folios).

[Hal]

Thanks Mathjak.

Here's the portfolio visualizer on your allocation.
Blue is the Mathjak portfolio, red the PP.

ps: What was your rationale for choosing those assets and percentages?

[mathjak107]

It is my allocation but I don’t use index funds ..,I use fidelity managed funds for everything ….plus over time the news letter swaps out funds so it is not a consistent allocation year over year..

One of the 2 equity funds I use in that model is down only 9% ytd as an example of how we would differ..the other is more like the Russell 3000
But not exactly , so it is down a tad more


A total market fund would have a very different outcome since that behaves more like the S&P within a point or so usually

[whatchamacallit]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over tho

Am I looking at this right?

Wellesley is up only 1% after 5 years when you don't include dividends.

Vanguard Wellesley® Income Fund Investor Shares https://g.co/kgs/VQ3774

[dualstow]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over tho

Am I looking at this right?

Wellesley is up only 1% after 5 years when you don't include dividends.

Vanguard Wellesley® Income Fund Investor Shares https://g.co/kgs/VQ3774

Here’s Vanguard’s own page on it - https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... ance/vwinx

[mathjak107]

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%"

Ride isnt over tho

Am I looking at this right?

Wellesley is up only 1% after 5 years when you don't include dividends.

Vanguard Wellesley® Income Fund Investor Shares https://g.co/kgs/VQ3774

If you don’t include the dividends and capital gain distributions then it is like taking a portfolio withdrawal

[whatchamacallit]

Gundlach still really close to permanent portfolio.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gundl ... s-454d1f8a

He recommends 25% in every category but has a bit of tilt to each category which would take on more risk.

I am glad I stuck with the blend index instead of value this year since value fell flat.

[dualstow]

Gundlach still really close to permanent portfolio.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gundl ... s-454d1f8a

He recommends 25% in every category but has a bit of tilt to each category which would take on more risk. ...

What exactly is his portfolio? I see 25% in equities at the beginning and 25% in gold at the end.
In the middle, he says he doesn’t like cash, but 25% in something “cash-ish”, but also 25% in ten-year notes and 25% in long-term bonds?
That’s a lot of 25%. I know I misread. What’re the real proportions?
Is the long bond portion 10 to 30 years and the rest of the portfolio matches the pp?

[whatchamacallit]

Yeah. The most specific thing was treasury bonds for bonds but it didn't lock in a duration.

This is what I took article as saying he is in with 25 % in each.

High yield short term bank loans for cash

Value stocks including international value

10 to 30 year treasuries. Maybe some high rated corporates.

Commodity funds with high amount of gold.

[dualstow]

That makes sense. Thank you.

We should have a thread on commodity funds. I’ll start one in the VP section. I’m curious about them, and I know they’re a part of Smithers’ new All Terrain portfolio.

[yankees60]

Per Dualstow this belongs here and not where I put it:




https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/09/26 ... 4107145G5I

Portfolio > Portfolio Construction

Gundlach: This Low-Risk Investment Mix Could Earn 7% Returns
By Dinah Wisenberg Brin


What You Need to Know
Jeffrey Gundlach, who specializes in fixed income, recommends allocations of only 25% to stocks now.
The rest should be split among long Treasury bonds, high-quality fixed income investments and commodities, he suggests.
He warns against buying the handful of stocks that have fueled the market's recent rise.

[yankees60]

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/09/15 ... tm_term=ta


Although leading economic indicators have been “full-on recessionary” for at least a year, one hasn’t materialized yet. But that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said this week.

The billionaire investor considers a downturn unlikely before the end of 2023 but anticipates a U.S. recession in the second quarter of 2024.

Gundlach and DoubleLine portfolio manager Andrew Hsu, in a webcast Thursday, detailed several signs pointing to recession. While the U.S. consumer is resilient, cracks are starting to show, as credit card delinquencies and defaults are rising, Hsu noted.

Gundlach reiterated that he has more than “nine figures” of his own money in the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, which represents his largest holding.

Check the gallery for five economic and market predictions from Gundlach and DoubleLine.