I guess I file these disaster movie scenarios under "risks that are too remote to devote energy to." Taking a look at death rate statistics can be illuminating. There are about 10 times more deaths due to cardiovascular disease than violence, and that's something like 10-1000 times again more deaths than those caused by nuclear power accidents. (The figures vary quite a bit depending on who you ask.) I allocate my "worry energy" accordingly.
MediumTex wrote:
One of the things about complex systems that people often seem not to grasp is that the more efficient a system is the less resilient it is. When our overall economic system drives everyone relentlessly toward greater efficiency, it also unwittingly often drives us toward less resiliency.
This is an old saw in systems engineering. There are many opportunities to add a buffer or slack, which almost always makes the system more robust but less efficient.
For example: how many bathrooms do you want in your home? With a spare bathroom, your "housing system" can handle all sorts of bumps in the road: a large party, shutting down one bathroom for repairs, hosting a boarder, etc. But the efficiency and price of your "housing system" are worse than if you only had the bare minimum number of rooms.
These kind of tradeoffs exist at many levels: real estate space, manufacturing parts stockpiles ("lean"), electricity and water production capacity, number of links in the distribution supply chain (drop-shipping vs. three-tier), road throughput, network bandwidth, willingness of consumers to do without, buffers in online video streaming, automobile offroad capability, etc... Specialization of labor, information technology, social interconnectedness, financial leverage, and globalization all push toward more efficiency but less slack.
Consequently things are cheaper now than they used to be in absolute terms, but part of that's because you don't get nearly the slack "baked in" that you used to. Luckily you can compensate by adding slack back in at the household level, and I think this is sensible. Live below your means, have a well stocked pantry, spare parts, ability to live for a few days without grid electricity, tools on hand, favors to call on, and so on.