Craig typically posts annual PP returns that assume the investor was able to maintain a strict 25% allocation across the four assets. For those who have been invested in the PP for all of 2011, I ask that you post your ACTUAL return. I am curious to see how much "tracking error" investors have experienced.
Thanks.
Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
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Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
With etfreplay I get 12.6% for 2011, rebalancing back to 25% each month. That is using
VTI
GLD
SHY
TLT
Not sure I would say etfreplay is a highly accurate backtesting source though.
VTI
GLD
SHY
TLT
Not sure I would say etfreplay is a highly accurate backtesting source though.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
i am not sure what my returns are, i have been using a xirr calculation to watch mine and the tracking includes some pre-PP returns, i don't know if this is an optimal way to track investments, i would be curious to know if anyone else watches their portfolio this way, or what the pro's and cons are for xirr vs yearly performance...
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Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
My personal 2011 report
From my last rebalance point which was very close to the end of Jan 2011 my increase is 15.01% . My assest are GTU and bullion for gold, TLT,EDV,VGLT for long term bonds , VTI for stock and Vanguard Treasuary Money Market for cash.
Long term bonds are now 29.8%
Gold is 26.01%
Stock is 21.04%
Cash is 23.15%
I had one tax loss harvest in early Feb when I sold TLT in my taxable account and bought EDV/VGLT
I came close to a rebalance when gold was around 1900 oz and GTU was trading at a premium but I never hit the 35%/15% rebalance band, it did hit 32% but the premium dropped and I lost incentive to rebalance early. Had I rebalanced early I would of had to pay tax on the short term gain I had in EDV/VGLT and that also added weight to not rebalancing early.
Next Feb I may rebalance the EDV/VGLT back to the even split I started with it is now EDV 55.5/45.5 VGLT the TLT is in IRA and I do not plan on touching it. I do not reinvest my dividends they go to cash. If things change I will just rebalance as needed.
I am quite happy with my 15.01% return. I wish everyone here a Happy and Healthy and Prosperous New Year!
From my last rebalance point which was very close to the end of Jan 2011 my increase is 15.01% . My assest are GTU and bullion for gold, TLT,EDV,VGLT for long term bonds , VTI for stock and Vanguard Treasuary Money Market for cash.
Long term bonds are now 29.8%
Gold is 26.01%
Stock is 21.04%
Cash is 23.15%
I had one tax loss harvest in early Feb when I sold TLT in my taxable account and bought EDV/VGLT
I came close to a rebalance when gold was around 1900 oz and GTU was trading at a premium but I never hit the 35%/15% rebalance band, it did hit 32% but the premium dropped and I lost incentive to rebalance early. Had I rebalanced early I would of had to pay tax on the short term gain I had in EDV/VGLT and that also added weight to not rebalancing early.
Next Feb I may rebalance the EDV/VGLT back to the even split I started with it is now EDV 55.5/45.5 VGLT the TLT is in IRA and I do not plan on touching it. I do not reinvest my dividends they go to cash. If things change I will just rebalance as needed.
I am quite happy with my 15.01% return. I wish everyone here a Happy and Healthy and Prosperous New Year!
Last edited by steve on Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
I began my HB PP at the beginning of February 2011, using SGOL, TLT, SHY, and VTI. Average gain: 11.64 per cent.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
ETFPP portfolio started on Sept 16 2011: TLT, VTI, GLD, SHV
My ETFPP is up 0.03% since I started it, throwing in some panic rebalancing before the 20/30 bands hit. Without that panic rebalancing I'd be in negative territory.
A comparable 30/70 conservative mixture is up 2.1% since Sept 16th, with lower volatility.
Gold in my timeframe really hurt, and the tracking error compared to a 30% stock/70% bond allocation is discouraging. Here's hoping gold gains again in 2012.
Misery loves company.
My ETFPP is up 0.03% since I started it, throwing in some panic rebalancing before the 20/30 bands hit. Without that panic rebalancing I'd be in negative territory.
A comparable 30/70 conservative mixture is up 2.1% since Sept 16th, with lower volatility.
Gold in my timeframe really hurt, and the tracking error compared to a 30% stock/70% bond allocation is discouraging. Here's hoping gold gains again in 2012.
Misery loves company.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
Khisanth,
I share your pain. I jumped into the PP on Sept. 2, 2011. Down about 0.3%.
Hopefully 2012 will be better for both of us.
Thanks.
I share your pain. I jumped into the PP on Sept. 2, 2011. Down about 0.3%.
Hopefully 2012 will be better for both of us.
Thanks.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
You have to accept the fact that the HBPP will underperform B&H SPY or 30/70 or 70/30 or FTM or Coffehouse or Ivy or Swenson or Bernstein or ANY portfolio for that matter, some of the time.Khisanth wrote: ETFPP portfolio started on Sept 16 2011: TLT, VTI, GLD, SHV
My ETFPP is up 0.03% since I started it, throwing in some panic rebalancing before the 20/30 bands hit. Without that panic rebalancing I'd be in negative territory.
A comparable 30/70 conservative mixture is up 2.1% since Sept 16th, with lower volatility.
Gold in my timeframe really hurt, and the tracking error compared to a 30% stock/70% bond allocation is discouraging. Here's hoping gold gains again in 2012.
Misery loves company.
Conversely, it will outperform those portfolios some of the time as well. It will also provide less volatility than those other portfolios the vast majority of the time.
Also, the time frame you're speaking of is extremely short. 3.5 months is basically noise, when you're looking at a portfolio over the course of your entire investing life.
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
For many investors, the first few months in the PP seem to be the hardest.
After you get some gains under your belt (and realize that the market isn't going to take them back), it seems to get easier.
After you get some gains under your belt (and realize that the market isn't going to take them back), it seems to get easier.
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A: “Not unless round is funny.”
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Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
The 2011 return on my PP was 11.78%.
I didn't do any rebalances (gold got close at about 34% at one point), but when I added some new funds (equal to about 15% of the overall portfolio) I bought approximately equal amounts of each of the four assets.
I didn't do any rebalances (gold got close at about 34% at one point), but when I added some new funds (equal to about 15% of the overall portfolio) I bought approximately equal amounts of each of the four assets.
-
MadMoneyMachine
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
I gained 8.2% or 5.3%, depending on accounting policy.
I did not buy and hold in 2011. I had to withdraws some money, did a rebalance out of
LT Bonds, and did some tax-loss harvesting, making the accounting more complicated.
The simple year-over-year net increase in my total portfolio is up 5.3%. This
includes the money I withdrew. Not a meaningful number for comparison.
If I try to just look at the performance of assets invested, I come up with something
like 8.2%.
My portfolio takes more risk in equities. I split the equity into VBR and VWO, the small-cap
US stocks and the Emerging Market fund, respectively. VBR was down 4.7% and VWO was
down 15.8% (I suspect largely due to the strong dollar). I did sell some VWO for tax loss
and transfered it (temporarily, ha!) into VT, the international stock fund.
I still have some stray investments, such as SCCO (Southern Copper Corp) at 1.6% of my
portfolio and the disappointing PRPFX at an unfortunate 3.0% of my portfolio. I sold
some SLV at its peak, but it still makes up 2.3%.
I'm hoping 2012 is a more stable year in which I can go without looking at my portfolio
for days at a time and not have to tax-loss harvest, rebalance, or withdraw much.
So at 8.2%, my portfolio didn't match the pure HBPP, but I am happy to be in 2nd place
against all the other lazy portfolios. See them at
http://madmoneymachine.com/2011/12/31/2 ... eliminary/
Happy 2012!
I did not buy and hold in 2011. I had to withdraws some money, did a rebalance out of
LT Bonds, and did some tax-loss harvesting, making the accounting more complicated.
The simple year-over-year net increase in my total portfolio is up 5.3%. This
includes the money I withdrew. Not a meaningful number for comparison.
If I try to just look at the performance of assets invested, I come up with something
like 8.2%.
My portfolio takes more risk in equities. I split the equity into VBR and VWO, the small-cap
US stocks and the Emerging Market fund, respectively. VBR was down 4.7% and VWO was
down 15.8% (I suspect largely due to the strong dollar). I did sell some VWO for tax loss
and transfered it (temporarily, ha!) into VT, the international stock fund.
I still have some stray investments, such as SCCO (Southern Copper Corp) at 1.6% of my
portfolio and the disappointing PRPFX at an unfortunate 3.0% of my portfolio. I sold
some SLV at its peak, but it still makes up 2.3%.
I'm hoping 2012 is a more stable year in which I can go without looking at my portfolio
for days at a time and not have to tax-loss harvest, rebalance, or withdraw much.
So at 8.2%, my portfolio didn't match the pure HBPP, but I am happy to be in 2nd place
against all the other lazy portfolios. See them at
http://madmoneymachine.com/2011/12/31/2 ... eliminary/
Happy 2012!
-
MachineGhost
- Executive Member
- Posts: 10054
- Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
What about replacing the 25% PP with 100% EW or SCV?
Is the "flat period breakout" effect due to the size facor or due to the value value?
Templeton got his start in that period. So did a lot of other famous greats. I would vote for value, but statistics do not lie.
MG
Is the "flat period breakout" effect due to the size facor or due to the value value?
Templeton got his start in that period. So did a lot of other famous greats. I would vote for value, but statistics do not lie.
MG
Clive wrote: To add to my last posting :
This chart shows the similarity between SCV and an equal weighted index
Holding 20% EW (or SCV) + 80% PP better provided for a quick break out from the 1935 to 1950's flat period. Blending EW (or SCV) into the PP's 25% stock allocation did not provide sufficient recession break out power.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Post ACTUAL 2011 PP Gain
10.93%