Long time lurker; first time poster...
'Tis the season of prognostications... I thought it would be enlightening to see what others might GUESS as to how they BELIEVE the HBPP and its various components might fair in the upcoming year...So, with apologies to Rule #4, what %change do you see for:
- HBPP
- GLD
- TLT
- VTI
- SHY
- PRPFX
- SPY
- DIA
Cheers!
Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
Welcome to the forum! You are in a good company.
A short answer to your question is... I don't know! I'm sure HBPP has become the destination for folks who became disillusioned in the abilities of their crystal balls to predict the behavior of financial markets.
BTW if you haven't done so already, I'd highly recommend to read the FAQs for each section of the forum as well as read Craig's blog.
I hope 2012 will be a good one for you!
A short answer to your question is... I don't know! I'm sure HBPP has become the destination for folks who became disillusioned in the abilities of their crystal balls to predict the behavior of financial markets.
BTW if you haven't done so already, I'd highly recommend to read the FAQs for each section of the forum as well as read Craig's blog.
I hope 2012 will be a good one for you!
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
- Talmud
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
- HBPP 8.9
- GLD 41.0
- TLT (27.3)
- VTI 21.7
- SHY 0.4
- PRPFX 9.8
- SPY 19.8
- DIA 17.0
The wildcard is really the collective actions of the central banks as it has been now for some years. I think if they intervene more severely to prevent interest rates from rising then perhaps TLT doesn't lose nearly as much. If that's the case then we might see flat or negative performances out of equities. Gold might not break $2,000 in that environment but I think we'll test 2k at some point in 2012, maybe very soon.
- GLD 41.0
- TLT (27.3)
- VTI 21.7
- SHY 0.4
- PRPFX 9.8
- SPY 19.8
- DIA 17.0
The wildcard is really the collective actions of the central banks as it has been now for some years. I think if they intervene more severely to prevent interest rates from rising then perhaps TLT doesn't lose nearly as much. If that's the case then we might see flat or negative performances out of equities. Gold might not break $2,000 in that environment but I think we'll test 2k at some point in 2012, maybe very soon.
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
Kshartle, why do you have this confidence in gold?
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
Is it fair to say that the central banks have essentially promised zero interest rates for as long as gold is kept sensible and the only thing keeping the price of gold from being infinity is doubt about how long central banks will bestow zero interest rates?
That adds up to
That's why we need the PP which is so agnostic about everything.
That adds up to
That's why we need the PP which is so agnostic about everything."Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment." - Mulla Nasrudin
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
I made two predictions in 2011. The first was that the yield on long term treasuries had reached their peak for the year at around 4.65% in the spring. That prediction turned out pretty well.
The second prediction was that when the S&P 500 reached 1332 in the spring that it would go no higher for the rest of the year. The index did go a little bit higher following my prediction (I think it briefly touched 1360 before starting back down), but has since fallen well below the 1332 level, so that one also turned out pretty well.
I will post some predictions later about what I think will happen in 2012. All for entertainment purposes only, of course.
The second prediction was that when the S&P 500 reached 1332 in the spring that it would go no higher for the rest of the year. The index did go a little bit higher following my prediction (I think it briefly touched 1360 before starting back down), but has since fallen well below the 1332 level, so that one also turned out pretty well.
I will post some predictions later about what I think will happen in 2012. All for entertainment purposes only, of course.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Rule #4 and The Wisdom of the Crowd - 12 31 2012
As are mineMediumTex wrote: All for entertainment purposes only, of course.
Anything can happen of course. I was very bearish on the USD coming into the year. No opinion on interest rates last Jan since they are so heavily influenced by the Fed. The USD has held up well this year with the Euro crisis and risk aversion of late, but let's not forget that this year saw the dollar make all time lows against the Aussie, Swissy, Yen and Gold (possibly Loonie and Kiwi, not sure). I don't think the US government or central bank has done anything to reverse this multi decade course and I think the fundies are even worse for the greenback now than six months or a year ago.
I think gold rallies and breaks the nominal high in 2012. Of course it's still well below it's inflation adjusted high and we are a long ways away from a bubble in my opinion. It's had a terrible month but still only down 20% from the high. These corrections happen in a bull market to buck off the weak hands.
41% sounds like a lot and honestly it's really hard to say where anything will be on a specific day (Dec 31 2012). But that's less than 15% above the high in 2011, easily acheivable if QE3 is announced or speculators jump back on if we break $2,000
I can't believe anyone is buying treasuries at 3% and intending to hold to maturity. Once the selling starts and yields start rising I think the Fed will step in. Or not. I think we'd need the 30 year around 5% to get to my TLT prediction. Wow, I'm talking myself out of it. Ok, TLT down 10% and Gold up 80%. j/k
Let's wait and see what tomorrow brings and then I'll repost since 2011 isn't done yet. Maybe we'll have a crazy closeout to a crazy year.