2022 PP predictions

[Pet Hog]

Putting these predictions out there for ridicule come 2023!

Stocks: down (guessing -20%)
LTTs: down (guessing -20%)
Gold: up (guessing +25%)
Cash: up (guessing +5%)
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PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal)
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Rationale:
Pandemic -- over or ignored
Inflation -- high because of short supply
Stimulus -- ending
Government -- record deficits; lame-duck presidency
Quantitative easing -- tapering (for a while, not for long)
Bond yields -- rising
Great resignation -- continuing
Workforce -- unmotivated, unskilled
Foreign conflicts -- likely
Buffet indicator -- at all-time high (218% on December 30; fair value is 120%; link)
Irrational exuberance -- all markets (except gold?)

I have a terrible record with predictions and market-timing, so I'll probably stick with the 4x25 PP, with any contributions going to gold, I-bonds, and boring dividend-paying stocks. LTTs look incapable of protecting the portfolio at present. Hope I'm wrong and we have a bumper year all around.

You can ridicule me now, too!

[ppnewbie]

I’m thinking LTT’s / cash go up and gold / stocks go down.

[mathjak107]

I have no clue …but I will guess at long term treasuries will slide farther , stocks may have a weak positive year , gold may be the same range . Rates on cash up , shy down.

I think a trader may catch a spike in Tlt if he doesn’t fall to far down waiting and make some money selling but other than that I see Tlt as a money sucker as it has been

I think inflation and rising rates will be the theme

[Vil]

Morgan Stanley predictions, I have no f*cking clue.
Now reading "Trading Sardines" (by Linda Raschke, guess you know who she is). She confirms one can make millions in short term market moves, though long time predictions are next to impossible. She credits Taleb's 'swans' too

By the way dualstow, I made 18% in one overnight trade of MSCI Turkey (as I suggested a while ago). Have to admit it was plain luck - I was expecting that it would raise again, but did not expect to come that easy. Comes without saying I exited 5 minutes after the market opened

[Lorddoskias123]

I would guess Gold/Long bonds would be the winners for 2022. Esp, with the FED expected to raise rates. Stocks are likely down. Cash mostly flat.

Time will tell, my guesses are traditionally not great. I think I had Gold winning 2021 and we all know how that turned out.

[mathjak107]

Unless rates get way high there is little correlation between fed moves and stocks except for some initial speed bumps

[buddtholomew]

Stocks down
Gold down
Bonds down
That’s my prediction.

Gold and LTT’s just cannibalize each other further and further down while stocks languish.

[Vil]

Stocks down
Gold down
Bonds down

And if we assume there is no some staggering lack of liquidity across the markets - where all those money will go ?

[Cortopassi]

Wow no joy anywhere here!

Only thing I would say is if talk of rates hikes shave a few thousand points more off stocks, that talk will change quickly.

Stocks, Gold, LTT: All Up

I do believe the pandemic wanes, and things continue to get more normal there, but as we get closer to Nov, everything is going to be amped up because of the elections.

[buddtholomew]

Wow no joy anywhere here!

Only thing I would say is if talk of rates hikes shave a few thousand points more off stocks, that talk will change quickly.

Stocks, Gold, LTT: All Up

I do believe the pandemic wanes, and things continue to get more normal there, but as we get closer to Nov, everything is going to be amped up because of the elections.

Another beating on the way.
Don’t you love being 75% equity when the PP tanks.
Useless as it ever was.
Portfolio is disgusting.

[seajay]

Stocks up +15%, banks doing well
Gold up +10%, as 'better value' elsewhere sees US$ down
LTT's down -5%
Cash +4%
PP +6%, matching inflation

[dualstow]

Wishful thinking, but I’ll say gold finally has a fine year, bizarrely even with rising rates in notes & bonds.

By the way dualstow, I made 18% in one overnight trade of MSCI Turkey (as I suggested a while ago). Have to admit it was plain luck - I was expecting that it would raise again, but did not expect to come that easy. Comes without saying I exited 5 minutes after the market opened

Oh, so you were serious after all!
Congrats!

[I Shrugged]

I've been investing since the early 80s, so I've had a 40 year bull market in stocks and bonds. The various drawdowns turned out to be noise. I would like to think my good returns over those 40 years were because I'm so smart. But let's face it, it has been a great era for investing, at least in the US markets.

One of these years will mark the start of a long term bear market in stocks. Why not 2022? I think there is a lot of excess out there. Feels like Japan 1990. As far as bonds and gold, who fricken knows? Besides Budd, of course.

I'm happy to be going with the PP into 2022. I think I'm ready for whatever happens. Although I need some more gold.

Bottom line, a losing year due to stocks and bonds.

[jalanlong]

I am no expert but I have a hunch that this is the year everything tanks...gold, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, NFTs etc. Might be a good year to pay extra on my mortgage.

[Vil]

I've been investing since the early 80s, so I've had a 40 year bull market in stocks and bonds.

Actually, I feel a bit lucky in that aspect, that I started with US PP at the end of 2019/very beginning of 2020, which turned to be quite a good year (~15% for me). Before that I've never invested in bonds for example (already see your smiles). However, to have few winning years in the beginning seems to be of paramount importance for the faith one have about a portfolio he/she is following... Really can feel for the ones that fall in the unluckiest percent of investors.. Last year also recouped the losses in bonds via positive gain from VP, which made me feel better actually

[seajay]

Start of 1972, Dow/Gold ratio 20, 20 year T yields 6%, S&P500 PE 18
Start of 1980 Dow/Gold 1.84, 20 year T 10.5%, PE 7.4

Gold from the start of 1972, held through to end of 1979 and after large gains rotated into LTT high yields and holding those since ... would have gained more than 100% TSM and been only marginally less rewarding than 100% SCV.

Recent levels, Dow/Gold 20, 20 year T 1.9%, PE 36

On a 'value' front, gold looks the best choice for the next decade+. Suppressed recently via the large inflows into US$ (Covid/fear). When 'better value' is perceived elsewhere (and/or fear subsides), US stock/bonds will be sold and see a outflow of US$ (gold up). Perhaps seeing a transition to 20 year T 4%, PE 18, Dow/Gold <10.

[dualstow]

One of these years will mark the start of a long term bear market in stocks.

what if it’s just brief if severe bear markets, punctuated by more long-term if muted bull markets?

[mathjak107]

What if it is decades of rising rates the same as we took to get here

[murphy_p_t]

What if it is decades of rising rates the same as we took to get here

US government has gone bankrupt and defaults?

[mathjak107]

This country has 130 trillion in assets ..30 trillion is debt .

If you had a mortgage that was 20% of your worth would you think you were doing not to badly ?

The point is anything is possible ….we have no idea how long and how far rates will go the same as we have no idea how long a stock downfall will last .

There is no way what we invest in is not weighted in a certain direction ..whether it’s the pp weighted for lower rates and lower inflation or what I do which is weight for higher rates or higher inflation or what budd does which is weight for greater prosperity.

Some of us will be right and some of us wrong and there will be a price to pay in all cases

[dualstow]

What if it is decades of rising rates the same as we took to get here

Interesting.

[buddtholomew]

The PP is dead.

[mathjak107]

The PP is dead.

The hope for the pp is that rising rates and covid kill growth and knock us towards recession stalling the rise

Certainly plausible .

But the only question is how much the pp will need to work its way back ..almost every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve

[buddtholomew]

At some point LTT’s will have a positive real return and I don’t want to be a bag holder as that unfolds. Bond yields rising make Gold less attractive so I don’t expect it to increase anytime soon.

If things turn out differently and stocks decline then I will have more cash for purchases.

[Smith1776]