http://www.cnbc.com/id/45474748
I'm confident PP might see better returns but still likely in for a disappointment in the coming years..
"5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
He now says UK gilts and US treasuries are good bets. So 4.5% yields a few months back made buying them only a trap for stupid suckers but 3.5% yields now are fine 
.
."Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment." - Mulla Nasrudin
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Bill Gross should talk less.
The noises that come from his mouth are becoming more and more dissonant to me.
The noises that come from his mouth are becoming more and more dissonant to me.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Wow... and it's more like 2.9%, stone.
Simply amazing.
Sometimes I feel like maybe... just maybe... I'm in an echochamber and that maybe a lot of the financial media is saying things that I am choosing not to listen to out of arrogance, while investing in a pipe-dream strategy that will be a real dud over the next decade, and the laughs of my friends are legit.
Then I read things like this, and feel warm and cozy in this board again.
Keep stuff like this coming from time-to-time.
Simply amazing.
Sometimes I feel like maybe... just maybe... I'm in an echochamber and that maybe a lot of the financial media is saying things that I am choosing not to listen to out of arrogance, while investing in a pipe-dream strategy that will be a real dud over the next decade, and the laughs of my friends are legit.
Then I read things like this, and feel warm and cozy in this board again.
Keep stuff like this coming from time-to-time.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Active managers continue to impress with their ability to completely get things wrong but rake in millions for doing so.
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
I suppose it is his fiduciary duty to talk his book. It just makes it all the more important to realize that that is all he is doing.
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment." - Mulla Nasrudin
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Fiduciary duty... key word, duty.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Bill Gross is exhibit #1 on why you should stay out of the prediction business.
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
I didn't realize it was spelled like that.
You learn something stinky every day.
You learn something stinky every day.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
-
Bobby
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
This year approximately 77% of all investment advisors have not broke above the S&P500. Most are very smart savvy people just like Bill Gross. The only hope for the average investor is to do it themselves according to a proven backtested formula like Harry Browne portfolio or slight modifications and rebalance the first day of each month. If I still can't beat the S&P I can still claim that I approximated billion dollar money managers like Bill Gross ( he's not doing very well ) but with far more control and far less cost.
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Welcome to the forum Bobby. As you read more you will probably see that rebalancing the PP every month is not an optimal approach (rebalancing tends to occur more like one time every year or two), though when it comes time to rebalance it probably wouldn't hurt to wait until the first of the month to do so. OTOH, since a PP rebalancing event could just as easily involve buying stocks as it could involve selling stocks, maybe the first of the month strategy wouldn't be worth the trouble, since it is presumably not equally beneficial to both buy or sell stocks on the first of the month.Bobby wrote: This year approximately 77% of all investment advisors have not broke above the S&P500. Most are very smart savvy people just like Bill Gross. The only hope for the average investor is to do it themselves according to a proven backtested formula like Harry Browne portfolio or slight modifications and rebalance the first day of each month. If I still can't beat the S&P I can still claim that I approximated billion dollar money managers like Bill Gross ( he's not doing very well ) but with far more control and far less cost.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
-
MachineGhost
- Executive Member
- Posts: 10054
- Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
"Smart savvy" people doesn't imply competence. The problem with Wall Street, besides being salesmen for the most part, is that they all think alike, generally have all the same restrictions and incentives, participate in all of the same fads, and do all of this all at the same time.
I get really tired of the "average investor" devaluing themselves by believing the nonsense that they're somehow "stupid and nonsavvy" compared to the so-called investment professionals. That is part of the shtick to get their hands on your money. But, chicken and egg...
MG
I get really tired of the "average investor" devaluing themselves by believing the nonsense that they're somehow "stupid and nonsavvy" compared to the so-called investment professionals. That is part of the shtick to get their hands on your money. But, chicken and egg...
MG
Bobby wrote: This year approximately 77% of all investment advisors have not broke above the S&P500. Most are very smart savvy people just like Bill Gross. The only hope for the average investor is to do it themselves according to a proven backtested formula like Harry Browne portfolio or slight modifications and rebalance the first day of each month. If I still can't beat the S&P I can still claim that I approximated billion dollar money managers like Bill Gross ( he's not doing very well ) but with far more control and far less cost.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
I second that. The latest example is his infamous bet against the Treasuries in the early 2011 - as a result Pimco Total Return missed the nice run of LTTs over the year.MediumTex wrote: Bill Gross should talk less.
The noises that come from his mouth are becoming more and more dissonant to me.
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
- Talmud
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
People like Gross are what I now call money smart. Their money makes them smart, and since they have so much, why everyone agrees. Paul Allen is money smart when running his basketball team, he does not need a GM, for he makes all the genius moves, just like Gross. 
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
Gross's calls haven't been all that impressive lately. He totally missed the amazing gains in the 30 year bond earlier this year.jswinner wrote: People like Gross are what I now call money smart. Their money makes them smart, and since they have so much, why everyone agrees. Paul Allen is money smart when running his basketball team, he does not need a GM, for he makes all the genius moves, just like Gross.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: "5% Returns Will be Upper Echelon for Years" - Bill Gross
MT,
Bonds don't have gains... they either post losses if rates rise, or are simply an unattractive contract to receive a scarily-low rate of interest over a 30-year span.
Or at least that's what common investing rhetoric would have you believe.
One thing that I also find interesting is that not only are 30 year treasuries default-risk free, but when you analyze the market there's simply nothing like them... I don't know the statistics, but to protect themselves, homeowners, corporations and municipalities want callable bonds, and I believe very few bonds in these areas are non-callable.
This almost creates an environment where the re is a "drought" in the markets for long-term annuity-type contracts that aren't geared towards an insurance provider collecting lots of fees, and marketable to sell at any time. Combine that with its non-corellation with stocks (aka, "good volatility") and it makes it hard to want to invest in any other kind of bond.
Bonds don't have gains... they either post losses if rates rise, or are simply an unattractive contract to receive a scarily-low rate of interest over a 30-year span.
Or at least that's what common investing rhetoric would have you believe.
One thing that I also find interesting is that not only are 30 year treasuries default-risk free, but when you analyze the market there's simply nothing like them... I don't know the statistics, but to protect themselves, homeowners, corporations and municipalities want callable bonds, and I believe very few bonds in these areas are non-callable.
This almost creates an environment where the re is a "drought" in the markets for long-term annuity-type contracts that aren't geared towards an insurance provider collecting lots of fees, and marketable to sell at any time. Combine that with its non-corellation with stocks (aka, "good volatility") and it makes it hard to want to invest in any other kind of bond.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine