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[Clive]

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[TripleB]

Time speeds up the older you get. A year for a one year old is 100% of a lifetime, for a 100 year old a year is just 1% of a lifetime. Try to take that into account when looking at the longer term.

I look at it the opposite way.

A year for a one year old is only 1/100 of their remaining life. A year for a 100 year old might be 100% of their remaining life. Investing involves looking at the margin and future only. Everything that occurred before the present time, is a sunk cost.

As far as this strategy, it seems really complex and arbitrarily subjective. Depending on when one rebalances, or how one contributes new money, could substantially affect what would trigger this "double down" event.

What I've suggested (and previously have done), that follows similar logic, but is much similar, would just be to separate out a 10% VP at all times.

Then at the end of the year, whichever asset did the worst, buy it with that 10% VP. Then at the end of the following year, sell that, and buy the newest loser, or hold if it's the same one.

Similar style of contrarian investing but easier to pull off logistically and you guarantee that you are buying something each year to hold.

I did this with sectors within the US SP500 and had good results (that may be based on luck). For example, in 2008 when REITS had dropped the lowest of all sectors, I bought a bunch of REITS. I made something like 120%.

This is again completely arbritary and subjective because it depends on what you define as your calendar. What makes the Roman Calendar special? Why not perform your annual "analysis" on March 5th or October 9th? Why Jan 1?

The biggest risk you have is that you're already sinking more money into that losing asset class of the PP. So what if it goes down 40% 5 years in a row? Then you've doubled down on your losses multiple times, and your overall portfolio is really hurting.

I'd say just stick to PP and maybe tweak inside each asset class to juice a little higher return (i.e. adding some international diversification to your stock section, or using IBonds in your cash section).

[stone]

Appologies for going off on a tangent but I heard that the time going faster as you get older phenomenon is due to perception of time being related to how many memories you are storing. When you are three, everything is new and so you are putting down memories thick and fast. When you are eighty, you have seen it all before and so time seems to fly by. If you are in a car crash then whilst your car is crashing each second seems to take forever. The fear makes you hyper-aware and laying down memories very densely.