Well Duh - Mail in Voting Attack Backfires?

[Xan]

Security: That's where blockchain technology comes in. You can use it for both identification and encryption purposes...I think if someone takes the time to review what this technology is and what it does you will likely agree that it is as secure as in-person voting.

But there's a lot more to having a vote than just making sure your message got through. The most important thing about voting (and it's largely unique to voting) is making sure that the tally is correct.

Paper ballots: you get some Rs and some Ds together and you count them. One by one.

Blockchain: you maybe could set up a system whereby each voter can log in and verify that his vote was counted. Okay. Some (small?) percentage of the voters will do that. But then how do you guarantee that the total is correct? Now you're relying on software.

[yankees60]

Security: That's where blockchain technology comes in. You can use it for both identification and encryption purposes...I think if someone takes the time to review what this technology is and what it does you will likely agree that it is as secure as in-person voting.

But there's a lot more to having a vote than just making sure your message got through. The most important thing about voting (and it's largely unique to voting) is making sure that the tally is correct.

Paper ballots: you get some Rs and some Ds together and you count them. One by one.

Blockchain: you maybe could set up a system whereby each voter can log in and verify that his vote was counted. Okay. Some (small?) percentage of the voters will do that. But then how do you guarantee that the total is correct? Now you're relying on software.

I actually live somewhere (since 1978) where it's ALWAYS been paper ballots. I think we are one of the few towns in our county where that is so because in the next day's newspapers there are always the results of the votes for all town except for mine (and, maybe, some others).

Therefore, all these other towns (and, most in the country) having been using machines for decades? In that case there are no members for each party counting each vote?

And, in the case of an election like 1992 with Ross Perot on the ballot would you then be advocating that there be three people present?

Vinny

[yankees60]

where i live its a paper ballot but you stuff it into a machine, i assume the vote is counted as it is fed in, with a paper copy in the sealed bin as backup..

Definitely not counted as it if fed in. They turn a crank on the box to get it fed into the box!

This is it!! This is my town! I've never, though, noted the counter. I will have to look for it next Tuesday.

Vinny

Capture.JPG (40.81 KiB) Viewed 2780 times

that is definitely old school looking,
the ones in ca are a black plastic box with electronics/displays that seem to scan and count as it gets pulled in. i don't think it is connected to anything so i guess they take the box + any tubs of ballots in and down load the count.. with the paper ballot as a backup if needed..

[yankees60]

that is definitely old school looking,
the ones in ca are a black plastic box with electronics/displays that seem to scan and count as it gets pulled in. i don't think it is connected to anything so i guess they take the box + any tubs of ballots in and down load the count.. with the paper ballot as a backup if needed..

Any guesses from what century our boxes were built??!!

We don't have any kind of oval circles like we are have been used to for decades on standardized test. We just have boxes next to each name that you put some form of mark in, e.g, checkmark, "X", whatever else people put in those boxes. Our votes are clearly hand counted.

[glennds]

Security: That's where blockchain technology comes in. You can use it for both identification and encryption purposes...I think if someone takes the time to review what this technology is and what it does you will likely agree that it is as secure as in-person voting.

But there's a lot more to having a vote than just making sure your message got through. The most important thing about voting (and it's largely unique to voting) is making sure that the tally is correct.

Paper ballots: you get some Rs and some Ds together and you count them. One by one.

Blockchain: you maybe could set up a system whereby each voter can log in and verify that his vote was counted. Okay. Some (small?) percentage of the voters will do that. But then how do you guarantee that the total is correct? Now you're relying on software.

I think the number of voters that would use a secure online system might be more than a small percentage. Again, look at the penetration of e-filing tax returns, online banking, etc.
With regard to relying on software... if you had to pick your poison would you take software or hand counting by humans?
Keep in mind that software can be tested through as many simulations as you like, and once debugged, it will stay that way. And I see no reason why an independent record of the votes, an electronic paper ballot if you will, cannot be retained for audit if necessary.

Every vote tabulating method has possibility of error whether optical scanning, mechanical sorting, manual hand counting, or software. One of these methods stands head and shoulders above the others in my mind, but I can understand if you or anyone else find greater comfort in manual old school methods.

[Xan]

All those other examples are very, very different from voting. For your tax return, all that matters is that your tax return was received intact and processed correctly.

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

[glennds]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

[Xan]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

A physical ballot box, with lots of people observing ballots being put in it, and then multiple people tallying the votes, is pretty darn close.

[glennds]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

A physical ballot box, with lots of people observing ballots being put in it, and then multiple people tallying the votes, is pretty darn close.

Maybe if you trust the people tallying the votes. Remember we're talking about thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of ballots. Not to mention a great deal of time pressure to tally the votes quickly, as in that day.
But I get your point and I could see it working well in Mayberry when Andy is up for re-election as sheriff and Howard Sprague and Aunt Bea, both of whom you know, are on the counting team and the ballot box is in the town square where everyone is watching it. In large scale elections I think the logistics are a whole different ball game.

[Xan]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

A physical ballot box, with lots of people observing ballots being put in it, and then multiple people tallying the votes, is pretty darn close.

Maybe if you trust the people tallying the votes. Remember we're talking about thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of ballots. Not to mention a great deal of time pressure to tally the votes quickly, as in that day.
But I get your point and I could see it working well in Mayberry when Andy is up for re-election as sheriff and Howard Sprague and Aunt Bea, both of whom you know, are on the counting team and the ballot box is in the town square where everyone is watching it. In large scale elections I think the logistics are a whole different ball game.

I think with purely electronic tallying, you have the same trust problem that you have with paper ballots, PLUS a whole bunch of new ones.

[glennds]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

A physical ballot box, with lots of people observing ballots being put in it, and then multiple people tallying the votes, is pretty darn close.

Maybe if you trust the people tallying the votes. Remember we're talking about thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of ballots. Not to mention a great deal of time pressure to tally the votes quickly, as in that day.
But I get your point and I could see it working well in Mayberry when Andy is up for re-election as sheriff and Howard Sprague and Aunt Bea, both of whom you know, are on the counting team and the ballot box is in the town square where everyone is watching it. In large scale elections I think the logistics are a whole different ball game.

I think with purely electronic tallying, you have the same trust problem that you have with paper ballots, PLUS a whole bunch of new ones.

I predict you are a fan of physical gold

[Xan]

For voting, you need some assurance that not just your own, but every one else's vote was received intact and processed correctly (with no extraneous ones either). It's a completely different problem.

Has that type of assurance ever been provided by any method?

A physical ballot box, with lots of people observing ballots being put in it, and then multiple people tallying the votes, is pretty darn close.

Maybe if you trust the people tallying the votes. Remember we're talking about thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of ballots. Not to mention a great deal of time pressure to tally the votes quickly, as in that day.
But I get your point and I could see it working well in Mayberry when Andy is up for re-election as sheriff and Howard Sprague and Aunt Bea, both of whom you know, are on the counting team and the ballot box is in the town square where everyone is watching it. In large scale elections I think the logistics are a whole different ball game.

I think with purely electronic tallying, you have the same trust problem that you have with paper ballots, PLUS a whole bunch of new ones.

I predict you are a fan of physical gold

Hah, well sure!

With voting you can still get the best of all worlds. That's what we have here in Texas now, I think. The voter interacts with the electronic machine. You push "Cast vote" and it records your vote, and ALSO prints out a physical slip with everything you selected printed on it. If there's something wrong with that, you can blow the whistle. That gets deposited in the ballot box. The machine gives you quick electronic counting, but in case of irregularities, you can go back and physically examine the actual ballots.

[flyingpylon]

I’ve always thought voting machines should work like an 70’s-80’s style cash register. Voter records their vote on the machine, receives a paper receipt, and the same information is recorded on an internal paper tape. The votes could still be tabulated electronically, but there would be paper backup held by voting officials as well as the voter.

[WiseOne]

Well, this is a twist:

https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/half-v ... d-73866697

Only half of requested mail-in ballots (90 million total) have been returned. It's too late already to mail them, if they're in a state in which the ballots have to arrive by Election Day.

Maybe a lot of them are on the way, but I suspect a lot of people aren't going to get their ballots in on time. And it's on track to be that 20% loss rate that NYC experienced during the primaries.

He he. Sayonara, Biden voters. Remember that mail in voters are overwhelmingly that. Something like 80% of Biden voters said they intended to vote by mail, whereas ~70-80% of Trump voters planned to vote in person. That could have a huge impact that the polls aren't accounting for.

[glennds]

Well, this is a twist:

https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/half-v ... d-73866697

Only half of requested mail-in ballots (90 million total) have been returned. It's too late already to mail them, if they're in a state in which the ballots have to arrive by Election Day.

Maybe a lot of them are on the way, but I suspect a lot of people aren't going to get their ballots in on time. And it's on track to be that 20% loss rate that NYC experienced during the primaries.

He he. Sayonara, Biden voters. Remember that mail in voters are overwhelmingly that. Something like 80% of Biden voters said they intended to vote by mail, whereas ~70-80% of Trump voters planned to vote in person. That could have a huge impact that the polls aren't accounting for.

In most states mail-in votes can be returned up to the day of the election in an election authority drop box (not affiliated with the USPS), or they can be returned to a poll location. So some mail-in voters may be going that route. Also consider that there is a % of mail-in ballot requests from people who want to keep their options open but ultimately decide to vote in person at the polls. So don't be so sure that an unreturned mail-in ballot equals an abstained vote.

All this said, the news reports seem to agree that early voting is record level compared to other elections. Record shattering levels. Plus an unusually strong cohort of younger voters in comparison to prior elections. Though I am not sure if younger voters are better for Trump or Biden.

[WiseOne]

Since Biden voters overwhelmingly chose to vote by mail specifically due to fear of COVID, I can't see them physically going to a polling place or anywhere else to drop off a ballot. If you're at a polling place why wouldn't you just vote there?

It's possible some will switch to voting in person, but my guess is that this group will be overwhelmingly Trump supporters - remember that the recent stoking of COVID fears will have much more of an effect on Biden voters. Guess we'll see how this shakes out. There is already a court battle in Pennsylvania about extending the deadline for mailed ballots to arrive. Looks like there will be a three day extension, probably because someone else noticed this and concluded it could harm Biden's chances.

[glennds]

Since Biden voters overwhelmingly chose to vote by mail specifically due to fear of COVID, I can't see them physically going to a polling place or anywhere else to drop off a ballot. If you're at a polling place why wouldn't you just vote there?

To skip the line. Drop completed mail ballot in the box, walk away.

Similarly minded people actually go online and buy their movie or show tickets before leaving home so they don't have to wait in line at the theater.