Some 2020 General Election Polls

[Ad Orientem]

Polls from the last 24 hrs...


General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
California: Trump vs. Biden PPIC* Biden 58, Trump 32 Biden +26
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 55, Trump 39 Biden +16
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 47 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Kansas: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 48, Biden 41 Trump +7
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Survey USA Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2
Oklahoma: Trump vs. Biden Sooner Poll* Trump 59, Biden 37 Trump +22
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs* Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 45, Trump 51 Trump +6
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Washington Post Biden 52, Trump 41 Biden +11
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12


Average of national polls Biden +9.8%

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.

[Ad Orientem]

Prophecy...Texas becoming competitive transforms the R party into something else. Not sure what that is but I suspect it looks less southern and more Midwest/inter mountain west where the Republican flavor is way dialed down on social conservatism and race issues and more about actual political conservatism and effective but small government.

Texas and its evolving demographics is probably the most important long term strategic issue confronting the GOP. The minute Texas flips, the GOP's path to winning a national election becomes more difficult by a factor. This is because of the Electoral College. Texas is the only large population/electoral vote rich state that has been reliably Republican. The last time they voted Democrat was in 1976. Because of the EC, if Texas votes Dem by even 1/2 of 1%, every Republican vote in the state becomes meaningless in a presidential election. Put bluntly, if Texas flips and we are still using the EC to determine presidential elections, I don't see a viable path to the White House for Republicans. The electoral college is a suicide pact for the Republican Party. But most Republicans are too terrified to grasp it because they can't see past the next election and have largely given up trying to win a popular vote election. Republicans have become more or less open in their defense of minority rule.

The GOP badly needs a come to Jesus reality check. And I think this election may provide that. The moment is just about here where they will need to decide whether they want to be a serious national political party, or whether they are content to decline into the status of a regional party with little appeal outside of rural mostly white states. If the former then they need to begin by jettisoning the fringe elements that have taken over the party and alienated so much of the electorate. If on the other hand they are content to be the party of Donald Trump, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, then we may begin seeing the movement towards the creation of a new, center right political party capable of, and willing to, compete on a national scale.

[pp4me]

If the former then they need to begin by jettisoning the fringe elements that have taken over the party and alienated so much of the electorate. If on the other hand they are content to be the party of Donald Trump, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, then we may begin seeing the movement towards the creation of a new, center right political party capable of, and willing to, compete on a national scale.

Do you have any suggestions as to how they would go about purging the white supremacists? Is it just voting for Donald Trump or are there other distinguishing characteristics?

[yankees60]

If the former then they need to begin by jettisoning the fringe elements that have taken over the party and alienated so much of the electorate. If on the other hand they are content to be the party of Donald Trump, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, then we may begin seeing the movement towards the creation of a new, center right political party capable of, and willing to, compete on a national scale.

Do you have any suggestions as to how they would go about purging the white supremacists? Is it just voting for Donald Trump or are there other distinguishing characteristics?

It's not as much as purging them but, instead, not encouraging them and not making them feel comfortable in both their expressions and actual acts.

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

I actually do think they need to be purged. They need to be told in no uncertain terms they are not welcome and to go crawl back under whatever rock they emerged from. For most of the last twenty years the GOP has been subtly, and sometimes not so subtly, rolling out the welcome mat for these lowlifes. Steve King being just one obvious example. The GOP has gone from being the party of Lincoln to the party of Jefferson Davis and Nathan Bedford Forrest. The party that pushed through the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments has become the party of racist voter suppression.

white supremacist are a extremely small fringe minority, they barely even exist anymore... they also tend to support the dems both traditionally and currently far more than the republicans, the media loves to yell white supremacist at the right, but my gut take on it is it is mostly propaganda, along with the “The Southern Strategy.” that they base most of these claims on..

[Ad Orientem]

Today's polls October 23, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 54, Trump 44, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden GSG Biden 53, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +10


Florida: Trump vs. Biden St. Pete Polls Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 46, Trump 50 Trump +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Morning Call Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Utah: Trump vs. Biden Deseret News/Hinckley Inst.* Trump 50, Biden 38 Trump +12


Average of national polls: Biden +9.8%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.

[Ad Orientem]

Today's electoral map via Princeton University





I actually disagree with a few of the color coded states. Utah, West Virginia, and Mississippi should all be dark red. They are solidly Trump states by double digits.

[Tortoise]

I don't disagree that the GOP needs a makeover. My point was that the Democrats do, too. Both parties have become near insufferable.

+1

[doodle]

I don't disagree that the GOP needs a makeover. My point was that the Democrats do, too. Both parties have become near insufferable.

+1

We allowed them to get that way. They are a reflection of our populace. It also doesn't help that our political system is entirely corrupted by big money and gerrymandering

[Tortoise]

Yes, it’s a reflection of our populace. Even widespread corruption among our politicians is generally an indication of corruption within the populace.

Regardless of our religious views, we have to recognize that in previous generations, the majority of Americans attended church. Every week, Americans would sit in church and get a weekly dose of morality and ethics. Some would say they also got a weekly dose of supernatural bullshit, but you can’t deny that they got morality and ethics.

Now that most Americans no longer attend church, where do most of them get their weekly dose of morality and ethics? CNN and Fox News?

[yankees60]

According to the polls, Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump does of winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.....

[Ad Orientem]

Polls for Sunday October 25, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC Dornsife Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10


Florida: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 48 Biden +2
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 49 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Dallas Morning News* Trump 45, Biden 48 Biden +3


Average of national polls Biden +9.1%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

[doodle]

How_to_Steal_an_Election_-_Gerrymandering.svg.png (77.77 KiB) Viewed 3949 times

I think there is also an issue with our winner take all system. If 47.5 percent of populace votes for one parties agenda and the other candidate wins 49 percent I think it's problematic that the winner gets everything. Definitely an argument in favor of parliamentary system. Would also allow people like those in this board to vote for libertarian or green party candidates and have their vote matter.

[yankees60]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... i=17258835


BREAKING NEWS - Trump's execution list: President will 'fire the FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel, Defense Secretary Mark Esper AND a long line of senior officials if he wins re-election'

[yankees60]

https://www.c-span.org/video/?477168-4/ ... te-florida

This ended a short while ago. You can see it any time you want.

Though focused on Florida voting and polling it was also an excellent exposition on polling overall.

Vinny

[pp4me]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... i=17258835


BREAKING NEWS - Trump's execution list: President will 'fire the FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel, Defense Secretary Mark Esper AND a long line of senior officials if he wins re-election'

Excellent! They are the swamp incarnate.

It isn't unusual for a president to clean house at the start of a second term. Nixon had all cabinet members turn in their resignations.

Only if/when Trump does it will it be portrayed as something nefarious by the second coming of Hitler.

[Ad Orientem]

Today's polls Monday October 26,2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 52, Trump 45, Jorgensen 1, Hawkins 1 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Public First Biden 47, Trump 34 Trump +13


Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Atlanta Journal-Constitution* Trump 46, Biden 47 Biden +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
Texas: Trump vs. Biden University of Houston Trump 50, Biden 45 Trump +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +13


National poll average Biden +8.7%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

[yankees60]

Today's polls Monday October 26,2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 52, Trump 45, Jorgensen 1, Hawkins 1 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Public First Biden 47, Trump 34 Trump +13


Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Atlanta Journal-Constitution* Trump 46, Biden 47 Biden +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
Texas: Trump vs. Biden University of Houston Trump 50, Biden 45 Trump +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden U. of Wisconsin/YouGov Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +13


National poll average Biden +8.7%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

Rasmussen Reports stand out as an outlier poll?

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Rasmussen is a right leaning polling entity that routinely produces data at odds with the more mainstream polling agencies. They have a C+ rating at 538 for accuracy. Another similar entity is Trafalgar which is even more contrarian in their findings. They have a D- rating for accuracy and reliability. I generally don't post them as I try to restrict myself to polls that are C rated or better.

[sophie]

Hey Ad, can you put the solid Biden #s in a lighter color, e.g. light blue? I can't read the dark blue against the black background.

I use dark mode to save on battery power.

[Ad Orientem]

Hey Ad, can you put the solid Biden #s in a lighter color, e.g. light blue? I can't read the dark blue against the black background.

I use dark mode to save on battery power.

I will see if I can find a less dark color.

[Cortopassi]

Hey Ad, can you put the solid Biden #s in a lighter color, e.g. light blue? I can't read the dark blue against the black background.

I use dark mode to save on battery power.

You have an OLED screen?

[Ad Orientem]

Today's polls Tuesday October 27, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 51, Trump 46, Jorgensen 1, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights* Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
California: Trump vs. Biden Berkeley IGS Biden 65, Trump 29 Biden +36
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Trump 48, Biden 50 Biden +2
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Louisiana: Trump vs. Biden University of New Orleans Trump 59, Biden 36 Trump +23
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
Mississippi: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 41, Trump 55 Trump +14
Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP Trump 49, Biden 47 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP Trump 47, Biden 51 Biden +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Survey USAs Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 52, Trump 45 Biden +7


National poll average Biden +9.1%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

Notes: It looks like there has been a slight tightening of polls in Florida over the last week. I did some experimenting with the color coding for the benefit of those using a dark screen background where blue may be hard to read. Unfortunately everything I tried was very hard to read on a lighter background, which is more commonly used.

[Ad Orientem]

NBC: The polls could be off. But that's not necessarily good news for Trump.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... p-n1244753

[yankees60]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10 ... ssion=true

How Trump Failed to Make This a ‘Choice’ Election

But then two things happened almost simultaneously: Biden won the Democratic presidential nomination, and the coronavirus became a pandemic that Trump instantly and irrevocably mishandled. The former development made it more difficult to caricature the opposition party as extremist, while the latter put a firm cap on Trump’s popularity and closed off any alternative strategy.

The trajectory of the campaign has made it clear that Trump’s efforts to demonize Joe Biden and his party have failed. The claim that Biden is senile was essential to the twin charges that he is dangerously incompetent and a puppet of the “radical left” of the Democratic Party (or perhaps the front man for the “communist” and “monster” Kamala Harris). In the two debates, however (the most salient opportunities for comparing the two septuagenarians), Biden was, on balance, the more coherent and self-possessed of the two. And while Trump did score some points in the final debates concerning Biden’s record on criminal-justice reform, the former vice-president easily parried the “socialist” attack line by calmly pointing out that Trump must be confusing his platform with those of the progressive rivals he vanquished.

The major strategic adjustment Trump made since Biden’s nomination has been to depict him as Hillary Clinton Redux, a creature of the same bipartisan Establishment that Trump campaigned against in 2016. A corollary of this dubious effort to regain an outsider position has been the president’s tedious attacks on the looters and murderers of “Democrat cities,” who are apparently itching to cross the invisible barricades erected by Trump to sack and pillage the pristine suburbs. More broadly, the “China virus,” Black Lives Matter activists, antifa “thugs,” and Fake Media traitors are alien forces that have somehow taken control of Great-Again America with only the besieged president willing to rescue her. But as Tim Alberta notes at Politico, this just doesn’t work for an incumbent:

Four years ago, just a third of the country believed America was on the right track. These conditions were fundamentally advantageous to Trump, a political outsider, whose party had been out of power for eight years. Today, only one-fifth of the country believes America is on the right track. But this time, Trump bears the brunt of the public’s frustration, primarily due to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Had Trump focused his reelection campaign on rebuilding his approval rating via (a) a pivot toward accepting responsibility and articulating a national strategy on COVID-19 and (b) making a credible case that the economy will come roaring back after the pandemic has subsided, not through some forced “reopening,” he might have lifted his approval rating and come closer to victory in a referendum election. At the same time, he might have done a better job of winning a “choice” election had he focused relentlessly on weak points of Biden’s agenda and Biden’s own record rather than trying to force him into an “extremist” template that just doesn’t fit him. A more disciplined and realistic comparative campaign might also have avoided the absurd effort by the most consistently incoherent and mendacious politician in American history to accuse Joe Biden of incoherence and lies.

As it is, the president’s campaign seems to have fallen between two stools: He hasn’t made a convincing case that he deserves a second term, and he has barely laid a glove on Biden. His very slim hopes for reelection now depend on an outsize turnout among the voters who have been with him from the beginning.