New interview with William Bernstein

[Kevin K.]

Not directly PP related but he always has some great insights. This link is to the transcript but you can easily find the podcast if you prefer.

[url][https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108/url]

[yankees60]

Not directly PP related but he always has some great insights. This link is to the transcript but you can easily find the podcast if you prefer.

[url][https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108/url]

Always LOVE to hear anything from Bernstein. But this is what I twice got when I clicked on what you provided.



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Vinny

[mathjak107]

I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

[yankees60]

I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

I don't think I've ever detected him changing his thinking. Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Vinny

[Kevin K.]

Weird about the link, which I couldn't make work from here either (I learned about the interview on Bogleheads).

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108

is correct - or just Google Rational Reminder podcast.

Kevin

[yankees60]

Weird about the link, which I couldn't make work from here either (I learned about the interview on Bogleheads).

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108

is correct - or just Google Rational Reminder podcast.

Kevin

Thanks!

That one DOES work.

Vinny

[mathjak107]

I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

I don't think I've ever detected him changing his thinking. Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Vinny

he had different investment idea and views in his early books ...then he came up with the LMP idea and suddenly no one should own stocks except with excess money . his portfolio ideas are always changing ....

[yankees60]

I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

I don't think I've ever detected him changing his thinking. Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Vinny

he had different investment idea and views in his early books ...then he came up with the LMP idea and suddenly no one should own stocks except with excess money . his portfolio ideas are always changing ....

It looks like the below quote by Keynes may be something he never said. But I'd still agree with his theme and, therefore, would accept Bernstein's views evolving...

Vinny

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/07/2 ... ange-mind/

When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?
John Maynard Keynes? Paul Samuelson? Winston Churchill? Joan Robinson? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: John Maynard Keynes was an enormously influential economist, but some of his detractors complained that the opinions he expressed tended to change over the years. Once during a high-profile government hearing a critic accused him of being inconsistent, and Keynes reportedly answered with one of the following:

When events change, I change my mind. What do you do?

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?

When someone persuades me that I am wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?

[mathjak107]

The problem is over the years his thinking is evolving and changing so much that I just don’t want to follow his ideas anymore ..who is to say he is not leading me down another rabbit hole that is incorrect.

It is not even like subtle shifts ....

[pp4me]

Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

[yankees60]

Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

That made a major impression on me when I first read it. 2011? 2013?

His overall point is still excellent. Perhaps TIPS are not the best recommendation. But, perhaps, they still are a good one.

Vinny

[pp4me]

Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

That made a major impression on me when I first read it. 2011? 2013?

His overall point is still excellent. Perhaps TIPS are not the best recommendation. But, perhaps, they still are a good one.

Vinny

I don't think TIPS were around when HB wrote his book but Craig Rowland had something to say about them in his. His basic argument, as I recall it, was that he didn't trust the government when it came to TIPS because they were the entity causing inflation and controlling the CPI. He preferred gold for inflation protection because of its independence. Made good sense to me.

[yankees60]

Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

That made a major impression on me when I first read it. 2011? 2013?

His overall point is still excellent. Perhaps TIPS are not the best recommendation. But, perhaps, they still are a good one.

Vinny

I don't think TIPS were around when HB wrote his book but Craig Rowland had something to say about them in his. His basic argument, as I recall it, was that he didn't trust the government when it came to TIPS because they were the entity causing inflation and controlling the CPI. He preferred gold for inflation protection because of its independence. Made good sense to me.

Yes, in the context of the Permanent Portfolio. But not necessarily if you have "won the game" and, thus, you have won the game and want to have minimal risk. TIPS are going to have a lot less volatility than gold.

Vinny

[mathjak107]

The problem is we never really know we won the game until well after the fact .

As kitces points out in his research on what is called the red zone , the danger point for a failed retirement from market sequences is the ten years leading in to retirement and the first ten years in retirement ....

Those are the critical years ....so it seems we won’t know we won the game until well after it matters ...

Those years are critical because our fuel tanks are full ...our portfolio is at max dollars and damages in dollars can be insane when things go badly ..... a mere 7% drop today for me represents more than a 10 years of 401k contributions at catch up ....decades ago it may have been a few months of contributing

https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/

[yankees60]

Aside from a big-time medical issue that Medicare will not cover....If you have MORE than enough with Social Security and a 2% withdrawal rate of your portfolio and assuming you are 70 and living to 100....has someone "won the game". You disagree that an investment in TIPS entails none of the risks you describe below?

Vinny

The problem is we never really know we won the game until well after the fact .

As kitces points out in his research on what is called the red zone , the danger point for a failed retirement from market sequences is the ten years leading in to retirement and the first ten years in retirement ....

Those are the critical years ....so it seems we won’t know we won the game until well after it matters ...

Those years are critical because our fuel tanks are full ...our portfolio is at max dollars and damages in dollars can be insane when things go badly ..... a mere 7% drop today for me represents more than a 10 years of 401k contributions at catch up ....decades ago it may have been a few months of contributing

https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/

[Kevin K.]

From a recent Bernstein interview on the White Coat Investor site:

“How Much Is Enough?
Bernstein recommends a rule of thumb, based on annuity payouts and spending patterns late in life, that you should have 20-25 times your residual living expenses (after pensions/Social Security) invested solely in safe assets. No stocks at all. This should be in TIPS, SPIAs, and short-term bonds. If you have more than that, that’s your “risk portfolio,” which he describes this way:

Anything above that, you can invest in risky assets. That’s your risk portfolio. If you dream about taking an around-the-world trip, and the risk portfolio does well, you can use it for that. If the risk portfolio doesn’t do well, at least you’re not pushing a shopping cart under an overpass.“

DFA offers retirement income funds that reflect exactly this approach:

https://us.dimensional.com/funds/dimen ... ncome-fund

You’ve got to bear in mind that Bernstein’s clients are multimillionaires. That’s “winning the game” by his definition.

[yankees60]

From a recent Bernstein interview on the White Coat Investor site:

“How Much Is Enough?
Bernstein recommends a rule of thumb, based on annuity payouts and spending patterns late in life, that you should have 20-25 times your residual living expenses (after pensions/Social Security) invested solely in safe assets. No stocks at all. This should be in TIPS, SPIAs, and short-term bonds. If you have more than that, that’s your “risk portfolio,” which he describes this way:

Anything above that, you can invest in risky assets. That’s your risk portfolio. If you dream about taking an around-the-world trip, and the risk portfolio does well, you can use it for that. If the risk portfolio doesn’t do well, at least you’re not pushing a shopping cart under an overpass.“

DFA offers retirement income funds that reflect exactly this approach:

https://us.dimensional.com/funds/dimen ... ncome-fund

You’ve got to bear in mind that Bernstein’s clients are multimillionaires. That’s “winning the game” by his definition.

If you live super frugally you to not have to be a multimillionaire. If you live like the typical American then you probably do need to be a multimillionaire.

Vinny

[mathjak107]

People make whatever they have work ...they back in to the lifestyle ...there is no such thing as a magic number .....more money just buys more choices but there is nothing that can’t be done cheaper.

I disagree too on tips ...I would never get my inflation protection from tips ..that is crazy ...there are so many reasons to avoid them .

there is just so much I disagree with when it comes to Bernstein ..I stopped even following or reading what he has to say years ago.

To much other stuff out there from people who’s research and opinions I rather read Than waste my time with Bernstein