Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

[Mountaineer]

I'll be watching you, Smith.
Behave.
Mark

If I do invest (and I might not), it will all be via the Variable Portfolio and the appropriate policy of money you can afford to lose.

Promise!

People watching each other's backs is what a forum should really be about. Thanks.

MV5BZjgyMzVjODEtOGZkNi00ZTQ2LWJhNGQtNWY5ZjA0ZGI4ZWFkXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMjU1Mzk2MA@@._V1_UY1200_CR93,0,630,1200_AL_.jpg (97.25 KiB) Viewed 6373 times

[Smith1776]

Resurrecting another excellent MediumTex post.

For anyone who has read "The Black Swan" you will recall that Taleb tells the story of his family in Lebanon and how they basically went from being upper class and wealthy to losing everything as a result of the chronic political problems and civil war.

The same story could probably be told about many wealthy families in the Confederate states during the U.S. civil war.

No matter how much political and economic stability exists today, it can unravel faster than one would think.

It doesn't have to happen, but it's happened often enough in the past that it makes sense to prepare for it.

I would suggest that it is misleading to call these "disaster" scenarios. The term "disaster" is really just an interpretation of an event, usually from people whose worldview was not realistic to begin with.

The fact is that so-called "disasters" occur quite often. To be fair, it might be more accurate to call these events "amazing failures to plan for the utterly foreseeable."

As I noted a few posts back, Hurricane Katrina is a nice microcosm of the way the natural world rubs up against human civilization and its treasured delusions. People called the hurricane a disaster, but to me the real disaster was to build a city below sea level in an area of the country with a chronically corrupt government. By doing that, you are all but guaranteeing that something bad is going to happen.

Applying this idea at the more macro level, think about how what the Fed is doing right now is basically the monetary equivalent to building a city below sea level, and Congress is completing the analogy by providing the corrupt and incompetent government to make sure that any response to the problem is completely ineffective.

But pointing these things out, to me, is not really predicting a disaster, it's more like pointing out the obvious and asking yourself what you need to do to protect yourself.

In the same way that entropy applies in the physical world, it also applies in the economic and political worlds, no matter how much those in power seek to deny it. The PP makes allowance for all of these processes. That's why I like it.

[Kriegsspiel]

People watching each other's backs is what a forum should really be about. Thanks.

Yo, as a budding superstar comedian (comedienne, in Canada?), you have to listen to Bill Burr's latest appearance on the Rogan podcast. It's awesome front start to finish, but they talk a lot about advice for young comedians.

[Kriegsspiel]

It's July 2020

and my finger is hovering above the "Buy Now" button for a genuine Black Death Plague Mask and Hat.

But I repeat myself.

[Tortoise]

It's July 2020

and my finger is hovering above the "Buy Now" button for a genuine Black Death Plague Mask and Hat.

But I repeat myself.

Just buy it, man. If you chicken out and don’t wear it at Wal-Mart this summer, you can always at least be a smash hit at a Halloween party.

[Kriegsspiel]

Halloween? I wanted it for the office.

[Smith1776]

People watching each other's backs is what a forum should really be about. Thanks.

Yo, as a budding superstar comedian (comedienne, in Canada?), you have to listen to Bill Burr's latest appearance on the Rogan podcast. It's awesome front start to finish, but they talk a lot about advice for young comedians.

Will do. I liked him in Breaking Bad. Hopefully he'll have some insightful advice.

[Kriegsspiel]

Hah, Rogan's latest podcast features..... Peter Schiff!

IT'S LIKE THEY'RE LISTENING TO US

[Smith1776]

Hah, Rogan's latest podcast features..... Peter Schiff!

IT'S LIKE THEY'RE LISTENING TO US

I was so pumped for it that I kept refreshing the Joe Rogan YouTube page yesterday. I started watching it something like 6 minutes after it was posted.

What a disappointment. Easily his worst interview on JRE. Don't get me wrong, he had great insights as always. He just never bloody took a breath. He just kept going and going and kept bulldozing Rogan every time he wanted to ask a question or change the pace of conversation. It wasn't a podcast, it was just a rant.

On Schiff's Twitter he recognized how poor his interview performance was and he apologized. He says his frenetic pace was due to the fact that the interview was being done online. Apparently his brain kicked into "CNBC mode" where he felt like he needed to get as much in as quickly as possible. Understandable... I guess?

[Tortoise]

What a disappointment. Easily [Schiff's] worst interview on JRE. Don't get me wrong, he had great insights as always. He just never bloody took a breath. He just kept going and going and kept bulldozing Rogan every time he wanted to ask a question or change the pace of conversation. It wasn't a podcast, it was just a rant.

Funny you should mention this, because I listened to the first 15 minutes of that interview last night and had the exact same impression. I eventually just lost interest and stopped listening.

For what it's worth, Schiff always seems that way in his interviews: Talks loudly (half-shouting), runs his mouth non-stop, and hardly lets the host get a word in edgewise or ask questions. It generally rubs me the wrong way. When I listened to a lot more of his interviews back in 2007/2008 during the Ron Paul Revolution, he was the same way.

[Smith1776]

Funny you should mention this, because I listened to the first 15 minutes of that interview last night and had the exact same impression. I eventually just lost interest and stopped listening.

For what it's worth, Schiff always seems that way in his interviews: Talks loudly (half-shouting), runs his mouth non-stop, and hardly lets the host get a word in edgewise or ask questions. It generally rubs me the wrong way. When I listened to a lot more of his interviews back in 2007/2008 during the Ron Paul Revolution, he was the same way.

Yeah, he does frequently seem like that. I think part of it is just the fact that he's a natural salesman (and I don't necessarily mean that in a negative way). He is quite talented at the sermonizing and preaching game.

His earlier JRE interviews were much more deliberate and thoughtful. I think sitting in front of Rogan live really made the difference where they could have a genuine conversation and see each other's social cues.

[dualstow]

They mentioned a “J(ay) Hogue” on CNBC this morning.

[Xan]

What a disappointment. Easily [Schiff's] worst interview on JRE. Don't get me wrong, he had great insights as always. He just never bloody took a breath. He just kept going and going and kept bulldozing Rogan every time he wanted to ask a question or change the pace of conversation. It wasn't a podcast, it was just a rant.

Funny you should mention this, because I listened to the first 15 minutes of that interview last night and had the exact same impression. I eventually just lost interest and stopped listening.

For what it's worth, Schiff always seems that way in his interviews: Talks loudly (half-shouting), runs his mouth non-stop, and hardly lets the host get a word in edgewise or ask questions. It generally rubs me the wrong way. When I listened to a lot more of his interviews back in 2007/2008 during the Ron Paul Revolution, he was the same way.

Interesting. A lot more often, at least in my experience, is that things go the other direction. A terrible (or great?) example of what I'm talking about was an interview that Maria Baritromo did with Ray Dalio a while back. She was constantly interrupting, asking long-winded non-question questions like a Senator at a hearing, and generally making the whole thing about herself, her thoughts, her opinions. I just wanted her to shut up and let Dalio speak.

Maybe there's a happy medium, and maybe that medium depends on the interviewee.

[Smith1776]

Interesting. A lot more often, at least in my experience, is that things go the other direction. A terrible (or great?) example of what I'm talking about was an interview that Maria Baritromo did with Ray Dalio a while back. She was constantly interrupting, asking long-winded non-question questions like a Senator at a hearing, and generally making the whole thing about herself, her thoughts, her opinions. I just wanted her to shut up and let Dalio speak.

Maybe there's a happy medium, and maybe that medium depends on the interviewee.

Ugh, I know exactly what you're talking about. Dalio likes to expound on topics in a thoughtful and deliberate way. Interviewers on CNBC just love to interrupt him just as he starts to get going. Dalio ends up finishing half a point before he gets pulled into another thread of discussion and the cycle repeats. His non-CNBC stuff is much better.

[Xan]

Interesting. A lot more often, at least in my experience, is that things go the other direction. A terrible (or great?) example of what I'm talking about was an interview that Maria Baritromo did with Ray Dalio a while back. She was constantly interrupting, asking long-winded non-question questions like a Senator at a hearing, and generally making the whole thing about herself, her thoughts, her opinions. I just wanted her to shut up and let Dalio speak.

Maybe there's a happy medium, and maybe that medium depends on the interviewee.

Ugh, I know exactly what you're talking about. Dalio likes to expound on topics in a thoughtful and deliberate way. Interviewers on CNBC just love to interrupt him just as he starts to get going. Dalio ends up finishing half a point before he gets pulled into another thread of discussion and the cycle repeats. His non-CNBC stuff is much better.

This one was in front of an audience, not even on CNBC! I'll see if I can find it.

hah, it's been talked about here before:
viewtopic.php?t=3132
viewtopic.php?t=6877
viewtopic.php?t=7681#p129804
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7921&start=48#p135622
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9609#p169234

[dualstow]

hah, it's been talked about here before:
viewtopic.php?t=3132
...

That post from stone is gold! (@1:14pm, at least on my screen). Leads to the Ali G interview of Kenneth Galbraith.

[Smith1776]

I did a thing today!

bitcoin.png (933.91 KiB) Viewed 6389 times

[Mark Leavy]

Smith...

Did you buy a bunch of bitcoin to send to Elon Musk so he would send you double back?
We need to talk

Mark

[Smith1776]

Smith...

Did you buy a bunch of bitcoin to send to Elon Musk so he would send you double back?
We need to talk

Mark

No, I sent them to Obama because he said he'd give me double back!

I ain't no fool!!

[Smith1776]

You can't tell me this isn't legit.

obama.jpg (27.22 KiB) Viewed 6360 times

[Mark Leavy]

You have a keen eye!

I admit, when I saw the similar tweet from Elon, it made me pause for a half second. At first glance, it seemed like just the sort of crazy thing he might do.

[dualstow]

I would have guessed you went for Bill Gates, Smithers. So much to learn, so much to learn.
Yes, the last I read was that hackers may have paid an inside man at Twitter.
Maybe next time they’ll dox* all the conservative posters on that site who have aliases. What a shitshow.


*For those who don’t know, and Vinny I know you’re getting ready to ask: doxing is publishing someone’s name, address and/or other private info online without permission. The etymology is dox, slang for documents.

[Libertarian666]

I would have guessed you went for Bill Gates, Smithers. So much to learn, so much to learn.
Yes, the last I read was that hackers may have paid an inside man at Twitter.
Maybe next time they’ll dox* all the conservative posters on that site who have aliases. What a shitshow.


*For those who don’t know, and Vinny I know you’re getting ready to ask: doxing is publishing someone’s name, address and/or other private info online without permission. The etymology is dox, slang for documents.

The Babylon Bee has weighed in on this event too: https://babylonbee.com/news/hackers-sus ... on-twitter

[Smith1776]

Yeah, if it had just been the Elon tweet in isolation I'd be inclined to believe it was legit too. Like, it just seems like such an Elon thing to say. I would've thought to myself "Yeah, I've seen him tweet less weird things."

Dualstow, as for Bill Gates he still hasn't given me the money he promised me when I was 13 years old. I forwarded that email he sent me to 10 other people as instructed and still haven't seen a cheque... I ain't trusting that swindler again.

[Smith1776]

The Babylon Bee has weighed in on this event too: https://babylonbee.com/news/hackers-sus ... on-twitter

LMFAO. HAHAHAHAHAHHAAAHAHAA.

For those who didn't click the link.

biden.png (164.78 KiB) Viewed 6587 times