PP Five years out?

[bedraggled]

With the possibility of negative interest rates ahead, might the PP deliver a CAGR of 3% in the next 5 years? Does this sound reasonable?

And, yes, I know we cannot predict the future.

Thanks.

[jalanlong]

With the possibility of negative interest rates ahead, might the PP deliver a CAGR of 3% in the next 5 years? Does this sound reasonable?

And, yes, I know we cannot predict the future.

Thanks.

As an addition to that question, I would like to know what is the minimum return most people would accept on the PP (or any portfolio) before deciding to just place all their funds in a "high" rate savings account. Certainly at some point the volatility, counterparty risk and/or just general time consumed by managing a portfolio is no longer compensated enough to make the portfolio worth it vs a simple, basic insured savings account (or IBonds or what have you).

[Tyler]

As an addition to that question, I would like to know what is the minimum return most people would accept on the PP (or any portfolio) before deciding to just place all their funds in a "high" rate savings account. Certainly at some point the volatility, counterparty risk and/or just general time consumed by managing a portfolio is no longer compensated enough to make the portfolio worth it vs a simple, basic insured savings account (or IBonds or what have you).

I have no idea what the future holds, but I imagine that the conditions that make the PP undesirable would also beat down interest rates on savings accounts just as badly. High returns in a savings account (compared to safe treasury rates) are generally a sign that there's more risk there than you realize.

[I Shrugged]

With the possibility of negative interest rates ahead, might the PP deliver a CAGR of 3% in the next 5 years? Does this sound reasonable?

And, yes, I know we cannot predict the future.

Thanks.

3% gross, or real?
Probably the same number, lol.

It sounds reasonable but conservative. If you could lock that deal in, would you?
I think I'd take 2% real if I could lock it in.

[bedraggled]

3% real is what I meant. Can we dare assume 3% real, averaged over the next 5 years? 2% would be ok, too.

I would like to think the PP could handle negative rates and float along giving better than 0.1% on a bank savings account. Therefore 2% real would be ok, too.

That 1966-1981 era may be upon us or maybe the time of Japan since 1990.

Your thoughts, please.

[pmward]

3% real is what I meant. Can we dare assume 3% real, averaged over the next 5 years? 2% would be ok, too.

I would like to think the PP could handle negative rates and float along giving better than 0.1% on a bank savings account. Therefore 2% real would be ok, too.

That 1966-1981 era may be upon us or maybe the time of Japan since 1990.

Your thoughts, please.

You can go to Tyler's website and look at how the PP performed for a Japanese investor. It really didn't do all that bad considering...

[bedraggled]

Thanks, pmward. I will do that.

Cheers.

[mathjak107]

3% real is what I meant. Can we dare assume 3% real, averaged over the next 5 years? 2% would be ok, too.

I would like to think the PP could handle negative rates and float along giving better than 0.1% on a bank savings account. Therefore 2% real would be ok, too.

That 1966-1981 era may be upon us or maybe the time of Japan since 1990.

Your thoughts, please.

You can go to Tyler's website and look at how the PP performed for a Japanese investor. It really didn't do all that bad considering...

if you were in japan and just bought equity markets in other parts of the world you did okay ... everyone assumes you only bought that countries market.