Coronavirus General Discussion

[dualstow]

Yesterday my dad emailed me a coronavirus article written by Dr. Fauci et al. in the New England Journal of Medicine on Feb 26. Over a month ago.

I didn't have the heart to tell him that given how quickly things have been moving and new data has been pouring in each day, a month-old coronavirus article may as well have been written in the Jurassic Era.

Were there predictions in it that turned out to be accurate?

[Tortoise]

Yesterday my dad emailed me a coronavirus article written by Dr. Fauci et al. in the New England Journal of Medicine on Feb 26. Over a month ago.

I didn't have the heart to tell him that given how quickly things have been moving and new data has been pouring in each day, a month-old coronavirus article may as well have been written in the Jurassic Era.

Were there predictions in it that turned out to be accurate?

The focus of the editorial wasn't really on predictions; it was more on summarizing the current (as of late Feb) state of knowledge about the virus. I guess the following quote could be considered a safe prediction that turned out to be true:

"The United States has seen a dramatic reduction in the number of travelers from China, especially from Hubei province. At least on a temporary basis, such restrictions may have helped slow the spread of the virus. . . However, given the efficiency of transmission as indicated in the current report, we should be prepared for Covid-19 to gain a foothold throughout the world, including in the United States. Community spread in the United States could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission. Such strategies could include isolating ill persons (including voluntary isolation at home), school closures, and telecommuting where possible."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

It's actually a fairly accurate editorial. The main reason I poked fun at its 1-month age is because the studies it mentions are based on such small numbers of Covid-19 patients compared to the exponential explosion we've seen since late Feb.

[yankees60]

Among the many virus items in my yesterday's local newspaper two items caught my eye...

1) Last week the sports department of the newspaper was laid off. ZERO local games to cover.

2) There was this article full of numbers by a computer scientist. I know that there are many here who absolutely love to attack numbers. Interested in your opinion of his opinion / analysis.

Vinny

https://www.recorder.com/COVID-19-What- ... r-33494776

Opinion > Columns
My Turn: COVID-19: What we know so far


By JERRY SCOTT
Published: 3/29/2020 1:28:03 PM
COVID-19 is just a new virus we have to deal with.

Mik Muller [My Turn: Make America healthy again”] is right. Too bad he had to ruin his input with politics. Public health belongs where it is now, in the CDC and NIH. Not in with the spies.

There is hope in a closer look.

Viruses are self-limiting by nature. Infection rates in a population are determined by the number of ways the virus can be transmitted, how long the viruses can survive outside of a host, and how long an infected host can transmit the virus before they become non-infectious or die. There are lots of viruses that infect people. They are all different. Think the Rhino viruses that infect many and kill few and Ebola, which infects few and kills most. Comparing one to another is not really a good way of looking at COVID-19.

Virologists have established that most viruses fall into the 40 to 70 percent infection rate in any given population. Death rates among the infected fall between .001% (or less) and 10% (or more). So far, COVID-19 seems likely to be acting in that infection range with a death rate of between 1% and 2%. Using a US population of 365,000,000, here is what might happen if we do nothing.

70% infected = 255,000,000, 2% death rate = 5,110,000

40% infected = 146,000,000, 1% death rate = 1,460,000

That is pretty scary.

But we are not doing nothing. If the social distancing measures currently underway can reduce the infection rate to 20% and modern medicine can reduce the death rate to .25%, both possible, this is what it may look like and it could be a lot lower.

20% infected = 73,000,000, .25% death rate = 638,750

Still very bad.

But a little perspective may make it a little less scary. Flu is expected to kill between 40,000 and 55,000 this flu season: Auto accidents will add 38,800, cancer 606,880, and heart disease 647,000. Even with that and the impact of COVID-19 the U.S. population will increase by almost 1,000,000 in 2020.

It is clear that what we do, each one of us, can have a huge impact. Expect the big numbers. But, do what we can. After all, our grandparents and great grandparents survived 1918.

Jerry Scott is computer scientist living in Northfield.

[Maddy]

I keep thinking. . . What sense does it make to turn every hospital and clinic into a center of contagion and, in the process, jeopardize the health and/or lives of people who need medical treatment for conditions other than CoVid-19? I previously related how an immune compromised friend with a surgical emergency was turned away from the nearest E.R. and was subsequently required to sit for six hours in a waiting room of full of hacking people in another town's E.R. before ever being seen. Since then, I've heard story after story of appointments being cancelled and of people choosing to delay treatment for potentially serious conditions out of concern that every medical facility in town has been turned into a hotbed of infection. Is anybody keeping track of the morbidity and mortality statistics for non-CoVid people whose treatment has been delayed or denied as a consequence of this uncoordinated effort?

Would it be so hard to designate a single location in each region of the country, well removed from any center of population, where confirmed CoVid-19 cases would receive treatment? The idea would be to quarantine not only those folks confirmed to be carriers, but the health care providers who may be spreading the virus all over the community. Sounds draconian, I know, but not nearly as draconian as shutting down the entire country.

[yankees60]

https://masksnow.org/

What is The Masks Now Coalition?

[yankees60]

At least 28 Texans test positive for COVID-19 after spring break in Mexico

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... ter-spring

[yankees60]

Dualstow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Toilet roll has become the new Lamborghini, everybody wants them


https://www.independent.co.uk/independe ... 1585709171

[dualstow]

Dualstow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Toilet roll has become the new Lamborghini, everybody wants them


https://www.independent.co.uk/independe ... 1585709171

You know, when I used them as an example in Tortoise’s shortage thread — say Tortoise shortage 5 times real fast — I wasn’t trying to be snarky, or even funny. I was just trying to say that I understand how the textbook definition of supply & demand goes, but that it doesn’t fly when so many people are out of work.

In any case, the fact that it’s a headline is pretty damn funny! Thank you for finding this.

[WiseOne]

Boris Johnson says that China has perhaps dozens of times more cases than claimed. I wouldn't be surprised if that were actually the case. Given the tenuous relationship between the Chinese government and the truth.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ina-2020-3

Note to Boris Johnson: Take a number.

WIth what's been going on in Spain, Italy and NYC, I am having a really hard time buying China's reported case & mortality counts. I was wondering if the virus mutated into a much more aggressive/contagious form, but it's more likely massive underreporting. Thanks a lot for the heads-up, guys. Way to be good global citizens.

(Dualstow - are you clairvoyant or what? Nice choice of analogy.)

[Smith1776]

I think most of us know all this already but...just for anyone who might be driving themselves into a panic because journalists can't do math and are inclined to sensationalize everything, here's a counterpoint that might be helpful. Also, if you want to do something constructive, put yourself on a low carb, sugar free diet, take vitamins especially D3, get enough sleep etc. (I ran across an interesting article measuring ability of white blood cells to kill pathogens after eating various forms of sugar or refined carbohydrates...it's cut in half for about 5 hours.)

WiseOne, what's the effective difference between Vitamin D and D3 on the body?

[yankees60]

Evangelical Preachers Endanger Congregations By Defying Common Sense and Holding Services

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/node/89725

[Tortoise]

Toilet roll has become the new Lamborghini, everybody wants them

I feel triggered.

[Tortoise]

Just listened to the latest episode of NPR’s The Indicator podcast. They interviewed an ER doc in NYC. She said the vast majority (“98%”) of the patients coming into her ER the past couple of days have had Covid-19.

Even patients who come in for completely different reasons often have it. She said someone will get an X-ray for a broken bone, and it will show stuff in their lungs that turns out to be Covid-19.

Wild stuff. I don’t know how reliable of a source she is, but if she’s telling the truth... wow.

[yankees60]

Just listened to the latest episode of NPR’s The Indicator podcast. They interviewed an ER doc in NYC. She said the vast majority (“98%”) of the patients coming into her ER the past couple of days have had Covid-19.

Even patients who come in for completely different reasons often have it. She said someone will get an X-ray for a broken bone, and it will show stuff in their lungs that turns out to be Covid-19.

Wild stuff. I don’t know how reliable of a source she is, but if she’s telling the truth... wow.

Where would you think emergency room doctors fit on the scale of most trusted / least trusted professions? I think high.

But let me see if I can find anything.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccar ... cd70147e94

https://news.gallup.com/poll/245597/nur ... thics.aspx

Medical doctors, second highest to nurses.

Vinny

[yankees60]

Japan Counting on Obedient Citizens to Lock Themselves Down

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-business

[yankees60]

DISPATCHES FROM A PANDEMIC
‘Would you risk your life for a jar of marmalade?’ My 5-point guide to surviving one hour in the grocery store
By Quentin Fottrell
Published: Apr 1, 2020 12:45 am ET
‘If we’re going to get coronavirus, a supermarket is where we’re gonna get it’


https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?ur ... amp_social

[yankees60]

Russian Hospital Chief Who Met Putin Last Week Has Coronavirus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... oronavirus

Capture.JPG (70.19 KiB) Viewed 9164 times

[yankees60]

https://www.fastcompany.com/90483596/wh ... ontent=rss

What our country can do now to support small businesses

[Dieter]

https://www.fastcompany.com/90483596/wh ... ontent=rss

What our country can do now to support small businesses

Yup.

Support independent bookstores.

[mathjak107]

now another one passed ..my co-worker for 40 years ... corona

[Smith1776]

now another one passed ..my co-worker for 40 years ... corona

Holy shit. It's really hitting home now. Sorry to hear, mathjak.

[Smith1776]

A particularly relevant Harry Browne quote for this year's disaster du jour.

The Permanent Portfolio will be safe enough to walk away from and forget about completely only if it allows for more than just the problems and hazards that are obvious today. It will have to allow for all of the unforeseeable events of the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.

You can say that about the PP. You can say that about maybe a few other portfolio allocations. But there's an alarmingly large number of investors out there that haven't heeded this advice. We're seeing the ugly results lately.

[Mountaineer]

now another one passed ..my co-worker for 40 years ... corona

Sorry to hear that. My condolences.

[Libertarian666]

Funny how other policies are implemented during the virus.....

https://www.facebook.com/adamseconomics ... 0291107633

Who could have predicted that?
Everyone.

[Libertarian666]

Boris Johnson says that China has perhaps dozens of times more cases than claimed. I wouldn't be surprised if that were actually the case. Given the tenuous relationship between the Chinese government and the truth.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ina-2020-3

Note to Boris Johnson: Take a number.

WIth what's been going on in Spain, Italy and NYC, I am having a really hard time buying China's reported case & mortality counts. I was wondering if the virus mutated into a much more aggressive/contagious form, but it's more likely massive underreporting. Thanks a lot for the heads-up, guys. Way to be good global citizens.

(Dualstow - are you clairvoyant or what? Nice choice of analogy.)

I believe exactly nothing coming out of China.
We had better get the supply chains for pharmaceutical manufacturing and any other critical items (electronics) out of their hands.
In fact, I'd go farther and say that we should make sure we have critical manufacturing capabilities in the US, with secondary sources in utterly reliable allies (also spelled "Israel").

Absolute free trade is fine in an anarchic world. We don't live in an anarchic world.