Stock scream room

[mdwilson1991]

Is this the scream room?

SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF

[Libertarian666]

Is this the scream room?

SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF

<boglehead>
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>

[yankees60]

Is this the scream room?

SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF

<boglehead>
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>

Meaning there is no true risk premium? That it is a direct, straight line relationship between its reward and risk?

Vinny

[Libertarian666]

Is this the scream room?

SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF

<boglehead>
If you want to earn the risk premium, you have to take the risk.
</boglehead>

Meaning there is no true risk premium? That it is a direct, straight line relationship between its reward and risk?

Vinny

No, meaning that you actually can't "earn" the risk premium.
The correct statement would be something like "According to our historical models based on less than 100 years of data from one stock market out of hundreds, if you buy and hold equities it is more likely than not that you will wind up ahead over a timeframe measured in decades."
But that's not nearly as reassuring to people who are watching their life savings dwindle by the day.

[ochotona]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

[yankees60]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

Has February 20, 2020 generally been accepted as "The Top"?

Vinny

[Libertarian666]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

But I thought they were all going to stay the course?

[ochotona]

Has February 20, 2020 generally been accepted as "The Top"?

Vinny

I don't know, but it's looking likely. Could snap back tremendously after the pandemic is over and go to new highs within 12-24 months from now.

[Vil]

Guess this it the result of unemployment claims soaring

[Cortopassi]

As a lot of people are starting to become aware and seems like between:

--Potential anti-malarial drug help
--Models of spread possibly inconsistent/too negative with what is/may be happening
--Antibody test coming soon
--??

What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:

--A huge stimulus
--A potential sooner end to everyone getting back to somewhat normal
--A potential resurgence in a few months.

I rebalanced 33% what seems like a year ago but was only a little over a week.

--Overweight stocks and gold, underweight bonds?
--Any good ideas on indications on what might be a right time to tweak?
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.

[Libertarian666]

As a lot of people are starting to become aware and seems like between:

--Potential anti-malarial drug help
--Models of spread possibly inconsistent/too negative with what is/may be happening
--Antibody test coming soon
--??

What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:

--A huge stimulus
--A potential sooner end to everyone getting back to somewhat normal
--A potential resurgence in a few months.

I rebalanced 33% what seems like a year ago but was only a little over a week.

--Overweight stocks and gold, underweight bonds?
--Any good ideas on indications on what might be a right time to tweak?
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.

I would guess that bonds will get killed with inflation, whereas stocks will probably do okay.
Gold should be the big winner.

Don't listen to me though. I'm a gold bug.

[dualstow]

What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:
...
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.

It's easy to tell other people what to do.
Passively rebalance, by the numbers.

[ochotona]

That's the Dow, not the S&P 500.. kind of a Doomer scenario for ya.

IMG_20200327_203333.jpg (138.85 KiB) Viewed 10048 times

[dualstow]

Ok, doomer.

[Smith1776]

Ok, doomer.

I need to play the latest Doom game. Just came out. And god knows I have the time nowadays.

[Smith1776]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

But I thought they were all going to stay the course?

This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.

And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?

The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.

[Tortoise]

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.

Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.

[Libertarian666]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

But I thought they were all going to stay the course?

This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.

And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?

The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.

The main difference is that the most arrogant Bogleheads are usually of retirement age.

[dualstow]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

We have a little bit of that, too.

[shekels]

Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?

We have a little bit of that, too.

I have not subscribed to BH.
So will someone let me know when they see this.
"I have Sold ALL my Stocks and Bonds and went totally to Cash."
Now I see they are going to devalue the Currency

[sophie]

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.

Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.

Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.

However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.

[dualstow]

I really respect David Grabiner over there. He's 100% stocks and some of those stocks are extra risky. He seems...ok. But he's definitely in the minority and he never recommends his portfolio to anyone else.

[dualstow]

Nah, you enjoy.
I bet she has great teeth!

[Kriegsspiel]

Nah, you enjoy.
I bet she has great teeth!

Quoted out of context, for creepiness.

[Libertarian666]

lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.

Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.

Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.

However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.

I saw some 100% stocks investors on Bogleheads say they were salivating at all of the bargains.
Since by definition they can't have any cash, I suggested they use leverage.