mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

A long term hold ha ha ha. Stuck in it for now .....

I doubt Old harry realized all the other factors that would be part of future markets .....things like machine driven sales to the extent they are 90% of the daily volume ....the margin calls ,, the leveraging and deleveraging of positions instantly ..Interest rates so low liquidity in treasuries falters as buyers demand more interest to take the risk

So these investments are no longer economically correlated when push comes to shove and the real deal strikes ....this is along the lines of the proverbial zombie attack where the pp assets were supposed to shine .....well so far not the case ....the worse things get the more the protective assets crap the bed

[amdda01]

flying fighter cover :

TLT +5.22%

But starting to get real pissed at gold.

[Cortopassi]

So these investments are no longer economically correlated when push comes to shove and the real deal strikes ....this is along the lines of the proverbial zombie attack where the pp assets were supposed to shine .....well so far not the case ....the worse things get the more the protective assets crap the bed

I am happy to have someone post different time ranges and crap all over this. All I'd like to show here, is, contrary information for the latest 16 year period, gold has beat the S&P.

I know you can find other ranges where this does not hold. I only picked this because that's as far back as Yahoo has GLD data.

Not sure if it includes dividends which would make a difference.

And, certainly, I would give gold a bit more time here to absorb the trillions and trillions of printing that is currently and will be happening.



Also, using Jan 21, 2020 as the first Covid 19 case in the US (per CDC), are the protective assets shining? No. Are they protective? Seems like it.

[mathjak107]

Both gold and Tlt are having an identity complex ...the more markets go down the more they fall ...then the more markets go up the more they fall back .

It is like they don’t know what it is they are supposed to do so they just react to wishy washy

flying fighter cover :

TLT +5.22%

But starting to get real pissed at gold.

[mathjak107]

So these investments are no longer economically correlated when push comes to shove and the real deal strikes ....this is along the lines of the proverbial zombie attack where the pp assets were supposed to shine .....well so far not the case ....the worse things get the more the protective assets crap the bed

I am happy to have someone post different time ranges and crap all over this. All I'd like to show here, is, contrary information for the latest 16 year period, gold has beat the S&P.

I know you can find other ranges where this does not hold. I only picked this because that's as far back as Yahoo has GLD data.

Not sure if it includes dividends which would make a difference.

And, certainly, I would give gold a bit more time here to absorb the trillions and trillions of printing that is currently and will be happening.



Also, using Jan 21, 2020 as the first Covid 19 case in the US (per CDC), are the protective assets shining? No. Are they protective? Seems like it.

If gold or bonds didn’t win in what contains the lost decade for stocks and a new bear market Dragging things back to 2017 levels then when ? I am surprised cash didn’t win over that Select period..

we spend 80% of our time somewhere below the last low and last high so it always depends where you want to start calculating from ....

The real question is how much was invested over our personal time frames when markets have the biggest effect up or down..

Plus what were the balance differences accumulated up to that point simply because of the allocation.

We can show 1-3 year treasuries beating stocks if we pick the right time frame ....however someone who spent the previous decade going in to that time frame in spy could have 4x the balance going in to that hypothetical low so the balance at the low for stocks still could be many times had you been in 1-3 year treasuries in the preceding years as your allocation ..

Pulling out charts of random years as you see means nothing when it comes to our own situations because of that fact

So what happens before and after the time frames we cherry pick can make all the difference , especially going in.

I mean I started in 1987 in 100% equities in the insight growth ...100k put in as of March 1 was 3.2 million ..... if we fell 50% it is 1.5 million because of what it grew in the preceding years .. in the mean time the income model could avoid falling 50% but it would still not be close to 1.50 million

[Cortopassi]

I don't disagree with what you say.

But... the one thing you talk about a lot is pucker factor. In early 2009, I made the choice to do the emotional thing I show below. If I had the pp, I would have had a much greater chance of staying the course and reaping the benefits (I am currently down a little less than 10% YTD).

Instead, I got sent on a completely different trajectory which screwed with my investing habits for about 6 years.

No doubt, 6 months from now that blue line could be way above the gold and pink ones. But you have to be able to survive through this kind of period to get there.

[mathjak107]

Poor investor behavior is different than markets .....in fact looking at Morningstar investor numbers shows no better behavior in balanced funds since gun shy investors just to have a lower trigger point to bad investor behavior.

So we all have a trigger point where we freak ...some are higher than others , some are better than others at reacting regardless of volatility.

My appetite for volatility is far lower now with bigger dollars involved ....being retired I am more comfortable in the 25-40% range .but being 100% equity for decades grew a far larger cushion for the drops now then had I been 25% equities my entire accumulation stage .

The fact is if you ever read Jason zweig book your money your brain , we are pre wired to hate losing money more than making it ..

We have great intentions and reasoning when we think of our investments hypothetically not under stress ...modern Brain imaging shows different irrational parts of the brain take over when our money decisions are under stress .....

Poor investor behavior is built in .....very few don’t cave in regardless of portfolio....

But the point is you can never look at charts of anything without considering what markets did to the time frame preceding in on the balances .....So you have your own personal investor behavior x the market returns and balances leading up to what you are trying to show......

In this case our hypothetical good behavior investor in spy for many years leading up to 2000 would be entering the lost decade with a far greater balance as well as subjecting that balance to the great bull later on , so you cannot disregard the preceding years in our investing comparison .....

Comparisons are highly personalized and can not be compared via a chart unless everyone buys in on the same day starting on that date with the same amount and even then we would all have to put in money on the same dates and of course the dates we pick would all be different outcomes anyway depending on date range we compare ....so at the end of the day the above comparison is pretty meaningless .......

[amdda01]

MJ,

You makin' a move?

TLT +6.23%

[mathjak107]

Sold Tlt ....wow , I was down a few thousand then up a few thousand. So gone before it evaporates again...still down with gold

[vnatale]

Only 3 of the 18 are cats. I've set my house limit at 3 cats (unless a Siamese or Tonkinese comes around. Then I'd make an exception to add one more). All the others are rodents. And, all, including the cats, are low maintenance.

Vinny

Pics?

After you made this request, I did motivate myself to take pictures of all of them on January 1, 2020. But since then either I've been too pressed to get other things done or not sufficiently motivated to go all the way to fulfill your request, i.e., supply the pictures.

Now that Dualstow has created the Kat Klub Topic I will now FINALLY fulfill that request.

Therefore, in a short while I'll have all the pictures (with descriptions) in a post at Kat Klub!

Vinny

[amdda01]

What's MJ got cookin this week?

[mathjak107]

Just selling gld .....this market is very difficult to trade

[pmward]

Bad time to sell gold, imo. It just did a standard 50% retracement of the up leg that started from the Oct 2018 lows, and also passed a test of the 200 day moving average last week. All technical signals point to the next leg of the up-trend starting. Everything we have seen in this pullback was all standard consolidation between legs of a bull trend. Gold has only completed it's first leg of the new bull market. It has much higher to go.

[amdda01]

pmward onto something:

* IAU : +4.78%
* TLT : +3.81%

I know you're lickin' your chops, MJ.

[mathjak107]

meh ... the fact equities are down so much takes the fun out of the little hits

[amdda01]

Hear ya - Any predictions for tomorrow (3/24)?

[mathjak107]

can't even guess ..we may get a bump up in stocks if congress plays nice but that will be short lived .

being at the epee center here in nyc i can tell you things are getting worse and worse ...i think markets may only be 2/3;'s to half way to a bottom .

our governor said we maybe locked down pretty much until as long as june

[mathjak107]

bought 200 shares sdow at the close ... i figured 3 days of gains and a friday says we are ripe for a down day

[Cortopassi]

Bad timing mj, didn't you get the news? We are already back in a bull market <sarc>

[mathjak107]

sdow sold .....up 10% since the close ...

[amdda01]

Nailed it.

[mathjak107]

just a lucky guess ... i mean 4 days of up in stocks was really betting against the house ... fridays too tend to see traders unload more often than not.

the odds said we were due for a drop .....

[dualstow]

Yeah Fridays often involve profit-taking, but especially when the market is on shaky ground.
I don't short and I wasn't as confident as you, but I thought, my dollar cost averaging will work a little bit better tomorrow.

[mathjak107]

mondays too can be awful , but sdow is a 3x inverse fund .. it can do damage quickly ..... it was the first time i ever bought it .... i kind of wish i lost a bit so i would be less inclined to do it again .

[pmward]

mondays too can be awful , but sdow is a 3x inverse fund .. it can do damage quickly ..... it was the first time i ever bought it .... i kind of wish i lost a bit so i would be less inclined to do it again .

Yeah I've been burned by 3x ETF's in the past as well. One of my rules that came from that is to never hold one overnight. Overnight gap risk is too much, especially in volatile markets like this. Intraday trades only for me on levered ETF's.