I pulled the trigger

[mdwilson1991]

After countless hours staring at pie charts, speadsheeting, and reading books and articles...

I have reallocated my 401k into a slightly modified GB (with 15% in gold and the leftover 5% in a stable value.)

Hopefully it doesn't all blow up!

I have up until this point been nearly all in equities. (Some was in a balanced fund so I was probably around 85/15.)

I was able to essentially ignore the last big crash, because I felt I still had plenty of years to go. Otherwise it's been fine, due to the seemingly endless rise of stocks.

However, I recently turned 51, and for whatever reason, this triggered an OMG! panic about needing to think about preservation. All my eggs were in one basket.

It's been much easier to leave things alone all this time, even knowing that something was wrong, than to make this big change. Kind of a "psychological momentum."

Along the way, I've discovered that there are a lot of smart people who can make convincing arguments with data about what the "best" path is. But basically they all disagree.

And that took me back to a premise of the PP, which is that "nobody knows what is going to happen, even though sometimes someone makes a lucky guess."

[ochotona]

Good move to take account of volatility at age 51. My ah-ha moment was at a similar age.

[europeanwizard]

Do whatever makes you sleep better at night.

You have ten years on me. But I, for one, didn't want to be one of those people who develop ulcers during the next bear market.

[dualstow]

Along the way, I've discovered that there are a lot of smart people who can make convincing arguments with data about what the "best" path is. But basically they all disagree.

Good insight.

[mdwilson1991]

So at the moment I am fairly pleased about having done this switch to a GB-ish portfolio.

As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year.

If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more upset.

Things could always go awry, and maybe I will end up regretting the switch, but I am not eating Tums at the moment (at least, not about my portfolio anyway.)

Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...

[yankees60]

So at the moment I am fairly pleased about having done this switch to a GB-ish portfolio.

As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year.

If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more upset.

Things could always go awry, and maybe I will end up regretting the switch, but I am not eating Tums at the moment (at least, not about my portfolio anyway.)

Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...

So that must have been the major source of my equity losses? It was bad enough looking at the total losses that I did not examine each component's performance. Bot of my handful of Vanguard Index funds, two of them are the Value and Small Cap Value funds.

Vinny

[CT-Scott]

Good for you! And thanks for posting back.

As I was reading through the thread I was nervously anticipating a reply indicating that you had switched back to mostly stocks before the crash.

[mdwilson1991]

So that must have been the major source of my equity losses? It was bad enough looking at the total losses that I did not examine each component's performance. Bot of my handful of Vanguard Index funds, two of them are the Value and Small Cap Value funds.

Vinny

I have no doubt that your SCV is getting crushed just like mine. Not surprising since a lot of small businesses are likely to go under. Of course many of those are small enough to not even wear a "micro cap", but I can't imagine it's much better for small companies that are traded.

[dualstow]

Of course I can still wish I had gone full PP instead of GB, and not dumped 20% into small cap value, a.k.a. the instant money incinerator ...

Try not to look at your own holdings in the short term during a crash. It's demoralizing. Look at the benchmark index: bargain! Look at your holdings: disaster.
Anyway, you did well. I let my stocks drift to nearly 70% (pp + vp) before the crash. It turns out that merely thinking about rebalancing doesn't count and didn't help.