Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

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Ad Orientem
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Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:22 pm

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europeanwizard
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by europeanwizard » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 am

Fun times :)

My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:03 am

Wow. Bitcoin and gold are really hard to figure out. Impossible to figure out.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:26 am

it is such a speculation ..... i dabble in gbtc from time to time .
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Tortoise » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:43 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:03 am
Wow. Bitcoin and gold are really hard to figure out. Impossible to figure out.
Toilet paper ETF, anyone?
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:32 pm

Not worth the paper it’s quilted on.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am

Would have liked for some Bitcoin magic at this time. But it seems that BTC is being pulled down like other assets during this deflationary period.

My understanding is the same thing happened to gold in 2008 crisis. And is happening to gold now?

It would appear to me that gold and bitcoin are poised for huge rallies when the dust settles. Anyone have good resources on this "dust settling period" based on historical anecdotes? How long will asset prices be driven down before all the money printing that is happening reverses the deflation into inflation?
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm

europeanwizard wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 am
Fun times :)

My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
Go to portfoliovisualizer.com, and compare GLD to 3.67% GBTC and the rest CASH. You get a two "portfolios" that have about the same standard deviation, and the same correlation to the US stock market... about zero. What does that backtest mean? Possibly nothing as far as future performance goes, but it tells me this - micro-size your bitcoin allocation. Whatever size you'd devote to a "normal" asset shrink the bitcoin position size by a factor of 27.

If GBTC gets to $4 (early 2019 levels) I might put 0.5% of the porfolio into it. But it would have to be $4 or lower. I'd really be a buyer at $0.40. I'm not waiting to pull the trigger, in other words. I have alerts set.
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm

GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
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europeanwizard
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by europeanwizard » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:47 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm
Possibly nothing as far as future performance goes, but it tells me this - micro-size your bitcoin allocation.
Compared to my PP, I've got about 3% bitcoin. Enough for me right now ;)
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:52 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm
If GBTC gets to $4 (early 2019 levels) I might put 0.5% of the porfolio into it. But it would have to be $4 or lower. I'd really be a buyer at $0.40. I'm not waiting to pull the trigger, in other words. I have alerts set.
You should also consider the premium of GBTC to BTC which can vary wildly. In these markets the premium should be small which is good for a buy. During rallies the premium can be 100%. See: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/disc ... ium_to_nav
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Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
Not a surprise that the smaller more speculative asset gets hit more. Not so much informative about YTD numbers.

More curious as to how gold and bitcoin will behave moving through this crisis, which seems to be deflationary, and transitioning into what I see as an inevitable highly inflationary environment. AKA does this deflationary period last weeks, months, 18 months? You all might know more about deflationary situations like this have played out in the past?
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