Health care during the coronavirus outbreak

[Libertarian666]

I don't want to frighten people more than necessary, but there's one preparation that people don't seem to be taking seriously enough.

The health care systems in the developed world are about to be hit by an avalanche of very ill people that will leave it powerless to handle even ordinarily minor issues.

Please, everyone, be extremely careful to avoid even the slightest avoidable risk of injury or illness.

The hospitals and probably even doctors outside of the hospital system aren't going to be able to attend to anything other than the victims of coronavirus, and not even all of them.

We're only a week or two behind Italy, which is in collapse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Here are the stats for the US:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And here are the stats for Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Notice that the curves are almost identical other than the scale.

So take absolutely no avoidable health risks.

[yankees60]

I don't want to frighten people more than necessary, but there's one preparation that people don't seem to be taking seriously enough.

The health care systems in the developed world are about to be hit by an avalanche of very ill people that will leave it powerless to handle even ordinarily minor issues.

Please, everyone, be extremely careful to avoid even the slightest avoidable risk of injury or illness.

The hospitals and probably even doctors outside of the hospital system aren't going to be able to attend to anything other than the victims of coronavirus, and not even all of them.

We're only a week or two behind Italy, which is in collapse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Here are the stats for the US:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And here are the stats for Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Notice that the curves are almost identical other than the scale.

So take absolutely no avoidable health risks.

Somewhat related (perhaps tangentially)….I've been wondering how those are the other side of the medical end - providers like dentists - are handling this. Did they want to consider to expose themselves to a large number of the public each day in a way that is about as close as you can be to a another person. I was surprised to receive the below from my dentist and see that it is business as usual, i.e., still providing the same services albeit with asking patients to take the precautions. Anyone else receive anything similar from your dentist or any other medical provide? I do have a contact lens appointment on Tuesday with my eye doctor. Have not seemed to have yet received my confirmation email from them.

Vinny

To our Patients, Family, and Friends,

With the actions being taken surrounding the Coronavirus, we would like our patients to feel comfortable coming to their dental appointments. We want to assure all of our patients that the team at Dr. Kellogg's office has existing guidelines in place that were developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and have been adopted by the American Dental Association, that ensure the safety of our patients and our dental team. We have always used these universal precautions with regards to infection control, and continue to be diligent in upholding them.

We do ask that patients utilize the hand sanitizer we have readily available in the waiting room before entering treatment rooms, as an extra precaution during this time.

Given the unvertainty of COVID-19, we respectfully request that you reschedule your appointment, by PHONE, for a later date, if you can answer YES to any of the following questions:

1) Have you or a member of your household had a fever of 100.2 degrees or higher in the last 72 hours?

2) Has any member of your household traveled out of state in the last 14 days?

3) Has any member of your household come in contact with someone who was ill or infected with the Coronavirus in the last 14 days?

Thank you for considering the health of our patients (yourself included), and staff!

[Libertarian666]

I don't want to frighten people more than necessary, but there's one preparation that people don't seem to be taking seriously enough.

The health care systems in the developed world are about to be hit by an avalanche of very ill people that will leave it powerless to handle even ordinarily minor issues.

Please, everyone, be extremely careful to avoid even the slightest avoidable risk of injury or illness.

The hospitals and probably even doctors outside of the hospital system aren't going to be able to attend to anything other than the victims of coronavirus, and not even all of them.

We're only a week or two behind Italy, which is in collapse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Here are the stats for the US:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And here are the stats for Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Notice that the curves are almost identical other than the scale.

So take absolutely no avoidable health risks.

Somewhat related (perhaps tangentially)….I've been wondering how those are the other side of the medical end - providers like dentists - are handling this. Did they want to consider to expose themselves to a large number of the public each day in a way that is about as close as you can be to a another person. I was surprised to receive the below from my dentist and see that it is business as usual, i.e., still providing the same services albeit with asking patients to take the precautions. Anyone else receive anything similar from your dentist or any other medical provide? I do have a contact lens appointment on Tuesday with my eye doctor. Have not seemed to have yet received my confirmation email from them.

Vinny

To our Patients, Family, and Friends,

With the actions being taken surrounding the Coronavirus, we would like our patients to feel comfortable coming to their dental appointments. We want to assure all of our patients that the team at Dr. Kellogg's office has existing guidelines in place that were developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and have been adopted by the American Dental Association, that ensure the safety of our patients and our dental team. We have always used these universal precautions with regards to infection control, and continue to be diligent in upholding them.

We do ask that patients utilize the hand sanitizer we have readily available in the waiting room before entering treatment rooms, as an extra precaution during this time.

Given the unvertainty of COVID-19, we respectfully request that you reschedule your appointment, by PHONE, for a later date, if you can answer YES to any of the following questions:

1) Have you or a member of your household had a fever of 100.2 degrees or higher in the last 72 hours?

2) Has any member of your household traveled out of state in the last 14 days?

3) Has any member of your household come in contact with someone who was ill or infected with the Coronavirus in the last 14 days?

Thank you for considering the health of our patients (yourself included), and staff!

While it is commendable that they are willing to continue providing services during the emergency, I don't think they understand the seriousness of the situation.

We are about two weeks behind Italy on the exponential growth curve, adjusted for population sizes.

Which means that it is very likely that our health care system will be in crisis in two weeks or less.

Almost no one understands exponential growth.

[WiseOne]

Calm down guys.

There are preparations being made here that did not occur in Italy, and they are happening at the local, state, and federal level. Hospitals in NYC (including mine) have already done things like cancel elective admissions, stock/conserve critical supplies, and add ICU beds, NYU Tisch hospital, for example, has converted the pediatric ER to an ICU. I imagine similar efforts are being made elsewhere. They also locked us medical staff down early on - both our work and personal travel have been restricted for a couple of weeks now. They did that to protect us, so we'd be available when the time came.

On the state level, New York has contracted with 28 private testing labs, and we have the results already: testing in NYC is now in hospital (not a send-out), takes ~8 hours or less to get a result, and now only requires an MD order - no other restrictions.

At the federal level, the response is truly impressive. The public/private partnership model, in my humble opinion, is brilliant and could only have happened in a Trump presidency. Drive-through testing (shouldn't require an appointment though), pinpointed regulation waivers to remove bureaucratic bottlenecks, supply pipelines, web sites...they are writing the book on how to respond to a pandemic. Yes, they got some ideas from South Korea, but it goes way beyond that. And yes, the travel ban IS important, and it wasn't Trump's whim: Anthony Fauci had recommended it based on what was learned about index cases in various areas - it was all coming from Europe.

Of course, you would never appreciate this if you read typical media articles, which are taking every opportunity to excoriate Trump. Frankly I find that behavior disgusting. The predictable result is that you probably aren't aware of the good things that are happening, because they are barely being reported. The only source of info is listening directly to press briefings by Trump, Fauci, and state governors (plus the email updates I get several times a day). Pay attention to their spoken words and ignore the rest, is my advice.

[Cortopassi]

The only source of info is listening directly to press briefings by Trump, Fauci, and state governors

Have you heard Pritzker (IL) today slam the Fed response and esp. what's going on at airports? I have no idea if it could have been done better, but those masses of people, hell if even one had it in there, they are going to spread it to the four winds.

[yankees60]

Calm down guys.

There are preparations being made here that did not occur in Italy, and they are happening at the local, state, and federal level. Hospitals in NYC (including mine) have already done things like cancel elective admissions, stock/conserve critical supplies, and add ICU beds, NYU Tisch hospital, for example, has converted the pediatric ER to an ICU. I imagine similar efforts are being made elsewhere. They also locked us medical staff down early on - both our work and personal travel have been restricted for a couple of weeks now. They did that to protect us, so we'd be available when the time came.

On the state level, New York has contracted with 28 private testing labs, and we have the results already: testing in NYC is now in hospital (not a send-out), takes ~8 hours or less to get a result, and now only requires an MD order - no other restrictions.

At the federal level, the response is truly impressive. The public/private partnership model, in my humble opinion, is brilliant and could only have happened in a Trump presidency. Drive-through testing (shouldn't require an appointment though), pinpointed regulation waivers to remove bureaucratic bottlenecks, supply pipelines, web sites...they are writing the book on how to respond to a pandemic. Yes, they got some ideas from South Korea, but it goes way beyond that. And yes, the travel ban IS important, and it wasn't Trump's whim: Anthony Fauci had recommended it based on what was learned about index cases in various areas - it was all coming from Europe.

Of course, you would never appreciate this if you read typical media articles, which are taking every opportunity to excoriate Trump. Frankly I find that behavior disgusting. The predictable result is that you probably aren't aware of the good things that are happening, because they are barely being reported. The only source of info is listening directly to press briefings by Trump, Fauci, and state governors (plus the email updates I get several times a day). Pay attention to their spoken words and ignore the rest, is my advice.

All that is great.
But as far as I can tell, there is no way that the health care system can handle a million people needing ICU care.
If 5% need ICU and there are 20 million infected, that's what will happen in about a month at 30% a day exponential growth.

Please explain why I'm wrong. I fervently hope I am.

At the beginning of today's Meet The Press Chuck Todd is almost immediately use the word "exponentially" so there are some in the media who have some awareness.

He's been pressing guests as to whether bars and restaurants should be shut down.

Vinny