Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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dualstow
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

Post by dualstow »

Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:46 pm This whole situation with hoarding items from the grocery store is like a giant version of prisoners dilemma. Or perhaps a derivative of the tragedy of commons.

A lot of the buying of consumer items from grocery stores isn't from fear of the virus. It's the knowledge that everyone else is stocking up, so there may not be much left for oneself.

If somehow we could all just agree to, for lack of a better term, not be assholes and engage in unnecessary hoarding, then nobody else would have to hoard in response.
The only reason we started buying cans and frozen meals is so that when things get progressively worse and perhaps locked down, we won’t have to risk exposure at the grocery store. We were able to do it without waiting in long lines, and when we did finally encounter a long line, we thought it defeated the purpose.

Similarly, I bought mushrooms at the outdoor market to build up immunity to all the germs I picked up while buying the mushrooms. I actually quarantined the crumpled bill that I received as change, yecch.

However, as you said, there is definitely something to what you said about how perception of hoarding leads to a perception of scarcity.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 pm
yankees60 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:50 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 pm
drumminj wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:11 pm With the reduced travel and traffic, I would think freight moves faster on the highways these days anyway. Is relaxing those protections actually required?
Unless they get rid of the speed limits, I wouldn't think that the marginal throughput improvement from lower traffic help very much.

Also, if there is less traffic, letting the drivers drive longer is less likely to result in crashes.

We may see National Guard members driving supply trucks.
But those National Guard members would have to have the proper licenses to drive those truck which I'd bet an extremely low percentage of them do.

One time my company rented a truck. And, it was going to cost so much extra $$$$$$ to not get it back by a certain hour when we no longer needed it. None of our truck drivers were available so I brought it back. First and only time I'd even driven a truck of that size (more bigger and more complicated than a UHaul truck). I'd had a lot experience driving standard transmission cars so it turned out not to be an impossible task for me. After I came back to the office one of our truck drivers was there and he said, "You drove that back? That truck requires a [license level I did not have]". That had not even crossed my mind when I decided to drive it.

Therefore I think this may also be the case with the vast majority of those in the National Guard unless their membership consists of a disproportionately high percentage of truck drivers.

Vinny

Vinny
The NG would have their own vehicles they would be driving. AFAIK it isn't legal for the government to activate the NG and then tell them to operate a civilian company's vehicles.
1. I was unaware that the National Guard owned their own vehicles, i.e. trucks. But to they own tractor trailers, refrigerated vehicles?
2. And, even if the licensing requirement was put aside what is the ratio of National Guard people who can actually drive a tractor trailer compared to the total tractor trailer drivers in the country? I'm assuming it is an extremely low proportion. You'd not want to all of a sudden tell me to drive that tractor trailer. Can we tell you to do so?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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yankees60 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:04 am
Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 pm
yankees60 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:50 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 pm
drumminj wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:11 pm With the reduced travel and traffic, I would think freight moves faster on the highways these days anyway. Is relaxing those protections actually required?
Unless they get rid of the speed limits, I wouldn't think that the marginal throughput improvement from lower traffic help very much.

Also, if there is less traffic, letting the drivers drive longer is less likely to result in crashes.

We may see National Guard members driving supply trucks.
But those National Guard members would have to have the proper licenses to drive those truck which I'd bet an extremely low percentage of them do.

One time my company rented a truck. And, it was going to cost so much extra $$$$$$ to not get it back by a certain hour when we no longer needed it. None of our truck drivers were available so I brought it back. First and only time I'd even driven a truck of that size (more bigger and more complicated than a UHaul truck). I'd had a lot experience driving standard transmission cars so it turned out not to be an impossible task for me. After I came back to the office one of our truck drivers was there and he said, "You drove that back? That truck requires a [license level I did not have]". That had not even crossed my mind when I decided to drive it.

Therefore I think this may also be the case with the vast majority of those in the National Guard unless their membership consists of a disproportionately high percentage of truck drivers.

Vinny

Vinny
The NG would have their own vehicles they would be driving. AFAIK it isn't legal for the government to activate the NG and then tell them to operate a civilian company's vehicles.
1. I was unaware that the National Guard owned their own vehicles, i.e. trucks. But to they own tractor trailers, refrigerated vehicles?
2. And, even if the licensing requirement was put aside what is the ratio of National Guard people who can actually drive a tractor trailer compared to the total tractor trailer drivers in the country? I'm assuming it is an extremely low proportion. You'd not want to all of a sudden tell me to drive that tractor trailer. Can we tell you to do so?

Vinny
I doubt the NG owns tractor trailers or refrigerated vehicles. But you don't need those to haul canned goods or most medical supplies. Of course tractor trailers are the most efficient but there are plenty of other trucks that could be used, and I believe the National Guard has a lot of trucks.
I'm also not saying that people who don't know how to drive tts are going to be ordered to do so. But in my opinion, normal licensing and other regulations are going to be suspended in favor of getting anyone who is able to drive trucks to do so.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:22 am
yankees60 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:04 am
Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 pm
yankees60 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:50 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 pm
drumminj wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:11 pm With the reduced travel and traffic, I would think freight moves faster on the highways these days anyway. Is relaxing those protections actually required?
Unless they get rid of the speed limits, I wouldn't think that the marginal throughput improvement from lower traffic help very much.

Also, if there is less traffic, letting the drivers drive longer is less likely to result in crashes.

We may see National Guard members driving supply trucks.
But those National Guard members would have to have the proper licenses to drive those truck which I'd bet an extremely low percentage of them do.

One time my company rented a truck. And, it was going to cost so much extra $$$$$$ to not get it back by a certain hour when we no longer needed it. None of our truck drivers were available so I brought it back. First and only time I'd even driven a truck of that size (more bigger and more complicated than a UHaul truck). I'd had a lot experience driving standard transmission cars so it turned out not to be an impossible task for me. After I came back to the office one of our truck drivers was there and he said, "You drove that back? That truck requires a [license level I did not have]". That had not even crossed my mind when I decided to drive it.

Therefore I think this may also be the case with the vast majority of those in the National Guard unless their membership consists of a disproportionately high percentage of truck drivers.

Vinny

Vinny
The NG would have their own vehicles they would be driving. AFAIK it isn't legal for the government to activate the NG and then tell them to operate a civilian company's vehicles.
1. I was unaware that the National Guard owned their own vehicles, i.e. trucks. But to they own tractor trailers, refrigerated vehicles?
2. And, even if the licensing requirement was put aside what is the ratio of National Guard people who can actually drive a tractor trailer compared to the total tractor trailer drivers in the country? I'm assuming it is an extremely low proportion. You'd not want to all of a sudden tell me to drive that tractor trailer. Can we tell you to do so?

Vinny
I doubt the NG owns tractor trailers or refrigerated vehicles. But you don't need those to haul canned goods or most medical supplies. Of course tractor trailers are the most efficient but there are plenty of other trucks that could be used, and I believe the National Guard has a lot of trucks.
I'm also not saying that people who don't know how to drive tts are going to be ordered to do so. But in my opinion, normal licensing and other regulations are going to be suspended in favor of getting anyone who is able to drive trucks to do so.
I think I'm questioning by what percentage using the National Guard to the fullest extent possible will increase the truck driving / delivery capacity of the country. I'd be surprised if it even reached 1%.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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yankees60 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:25 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:22 am
yankees60 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:04 am
Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 pm
yankees60 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:50 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 pm
drumminj wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:11 pm With the reduced travel and traffic, I would think freight moves faster on the highways these days anyway. Is relaxing those protections actually required?
Unless they get rid of the speed limits, I wouldn't think that the marginal throughput improvement from lower traffic help very much.

Also, if there is less traffic, letting the drivers drive longer is less likely to result in crashes.

We may see National Guard members driving supply trucks.
But those National Guard members would have to have the proper licenses to drive those truck which I'd bet an extremely low percentage of them do.

One time my company rented a truck. And, it was going to cost so much extra $$$$$$ to not get it back by a certain hour when we no longer needed it. None of our truck drivers were available so I brought it back. First and only time I'd even driven a truck of that size (more bigger and more complicated than a UHaul truck). I'd had a lot experience driving standard transmission cars so it turned out not to be an impossible task for me. After I came back to the office one of our truck drivers was there and he said, "You drove that back? That truck requires a [license level I did not have]". That had not even crossed my mind when I decided to drive it.

Therefore I think this may also be the case with the vast majority of those in the National Guard unless their membership consists of a disproportionately high percentage of truck drivers.

Vinny

Vinny
The NG would have their own vehicles they would be driving. AFAIK it isn't legal for the government to activate the NG and then tell them to operate a civilian company's vehicles.
1. I was unaware that the National Guard owned their own vehicles, i.e. trucks. But to they own tractor trailers, refrigerated vehicles?
2. And, even if the licensing requirement was put aside what is the ratio of National Guard people who can actually drive a tractor trailer compared to the total tractor trailer drivers in the country? I'm assuming it is an extremely low proportion. You'd not want to all of a sudden tell me to drive that tractor trailer. Can we tell you to do so?

Vinny
I doubt the NG owns tractor trailers or refrigerated vehicles. But you don't need those to haul canned goods or most medical supplies. Of course tractor trailers are the most efficient but there are plenty of other trucks that could be used, and I believe the National Guard has a lot of trucks.
I'm also not saying that people who don't know how to drive tts are going to be ordered to do so. But in my opinion, normal licensing and other regulations are going to be suspended in favor of getting anyone who is able to drive trucks to do so.
I think I'm questioning by what percentage using the National Guard to the fullest extent possible will increase the truck driving / delivery capacity of the country. I'd be surprised if it even reached 1%.

Vinny
You may be right. I don't have the answer to that question.

But whatever they can contribute will help at least a little.

I also expect that the interstate highway system will be restricted to essential freight, truck drivers to be conscripted for such freight, and speed limits on the interstates changed to "appropriate for conditions" rather than numerical values.

This is a real national emergency.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:32 am You may be right. I don't have the answer to that question.

But whatever they can contribute will help at least a little.

I also expect that the interstate highway system will be restricted to essential freight, truck drivers to be conscripted for such freight, and speed limits on the interstates changed to "appropriate for conditions" rather than numerical values.

This is a real national emergency.
That would be interesting to see play out in a city who's infrastructure is largely built around interstate highways, eg Seattle.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:46 pm Having said all that, I am something of a prepper myself due to our earthquake risk here in Vancouver. Which I think is very real and something that is very reasonable to plan for. Should the situation somehow turn extreme, we should be okay here in my household.
I think there's an important distinction to make between "panic hoarders" and "preppers".

As much as the political leaning on Reddit drives me crazy (perhaps another conversation thread to spawn off someday), I read a good discussion there the other day that explored this. Preppers buy when things are cheap/available, to ensure to have supplies on hand for events that happen without warning -- earthquakes, bad weather/storms, etc. As discussed elsewhere, ideally everyone would be so prepared (have water and food for at least 72 hours, if not 7 days).

Then there's the "OMG, SOMETHING BAD IS HAPPENING. GET TO THE STORE!" panic hoarders, which is what you're seeing now. People who haven't thought this through before, don't consider portability of items, calorie density or storage ability of food, etc.

IMO, being a self-sufficient "prepper" is something that should be looked upon favorably. It means you're not unnecessarily straining the system's resources when something happens.

(as a side note, it's been interesting watching my S.O. "come around" to valuing my preparedness habits -- having a generator and space heater to keep us warm when the power/heat was out for a few days last winter, and having a few weeks worth of food + water for us on hand in case of an earthquake, or in this case, forced-quarantine without warning if it were to happen)
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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drumminj wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:48 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:32 am You may be right. I don't have the answer to that question.

But whatever they can contribute will help at least a little.

I also expect that the interstate highway system will be restricted to essential freight, truck drivers to be conscripted for such freight, and speed limits on the interstates changed to "appropriate for conditions" rather than numerical values.

This is a real national emergency.
That would be interesting to see play out in a city who's infrastructure is largely built around interstate highways, eg Seattle.
Yep.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:09 am
drumminj wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:48 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:32 am You may be right. I don't have the answer to that question.

But whatever they can contribute will help at least a little.

I also expect that the interstate highway system will be restricted to essential freight, truck drivers to be conscripted for such freight, and speed limits on the interstates changed to "appropriate for conditions" rather than numerical values.

This is a real national emergency.
That would be interesting to see play out in a city who's infrastructure is largely built around interstate highways, eg Seattle.
Yep.
It certainly would take longer to get to places in rural areas where we depend upon our interstate highways.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Totally agree, drumminj.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Just came up in the latest press conference.
DT wants to move toward more domestic production of medicine, plus increased production in Ireland.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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I've been wondering about what's going to happen to online commerce, if domestic travel starts being restricted. Thinking that the problem is not going to be everyday groceries, but rather stuff that we all order online and depend on. I'm not that interested in stockpiling toilet paper, but I am thinking about ordering critical supplies ahead of time that I know I can't find locally.

Examples of these: Nutritional supplements, specialty food items like grassfed/pastured meats, cat supplies/food, supplies for my community garden plot, maintenance items for my bicycle.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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dualstow wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:53 am Just came up in the latest press conference.
DT wants to move toward more domestic production of medicine, plus increased production in Ireland.
Works for me.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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WiseOne wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:19 pm I've been wondering about what's going to happen to online commerce, if domestic travel starts being restricted. Thinking that the problem is not going to be everyday groceries, but rather stuff that we all order online and depend on. I'm not that interested in stockpiling toilet paper, but I am thinking about ordering critical supplies ahead of time that I know I can't find locally.

Examples of these: Nutritional supplements, specialty food items like grassfed/pastured meats, cat supplies/food, supplies for my community garden plot, maintenance items for my bicycle.
Yep. Bezos has already announced that he is hiring 100k new workers to meet the demand.
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Re: Logistics in the coronavirus pandemic

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Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:40 pm Bezos has already announced that he is hiring 100k new workers to meet the demand.
My brother signed up for AmazonFresh the other day and added a bunch of "in stock" items to his cart. But when he tried to check out, the order was rejected because there aren't enough workers to fulfill the orders. The system cuts off new orders after two days of backlog.

Apparently the most important "out of stock" item at AmazonFresh is workers. So yeah... I can understand why they're hiring like mad.
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