Coronavirus General Discussion

[Kriegsspiel]

Well... I think I may have the bug. Mom has been coughing and now feels flush and threw up. And I started coughing a day or two ago. No other symptoms yet. But my appetite has disappeared and for those who don't know me, that is NOT normal. I see a Netflix binge coming up.

That sucks. Get well.

[Smith1776]

Well... I think I may have the bug. Mom has been coughing and now feels flush and threw up. And I started coughing a day or two ago. No other symptoms yet. But my appetite has disappeared and for those who don't know me, that is NOT normal. I see a Netflix binge coming up.

Get well soon, friend. Keep us updated.

===========

In other news: Permanent Portfolio vs Coronavirus -- FULL FIGHT

https://youtu.be/FdWJ-Njeaig

[Xan]

Well... I think I may have the bug. Mom has been coughing and now feels flush and threw up. And I started coughing a day or two ago. No other symptoms yet. But my appetite has disappeared and for those who don't know me, that is NOT normal. I see a Netflix binge coming up.

Praying for yours and your mom's smooth recovery, Ad.

[yankees60]

Each day Massachusetts is providing us with this table of all the cases in the state.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases ... 0/download

So far no cases in my county, the county to the south of mine and the next county south (then you are in Connecticut).

Note that 82 of the 105 cases came from BioGen: A biology-genetics conference they held.



Vinny

[dualstow]

82 of the 105 cases came from BioGen: A biology-genetics conference they held.

Yeah, they blew it for New England. I saw an article about that.

[dualstow]

Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

[Smith1776]

Joke’s on you guys. I made it home from the gym safe and sound.

You won’t be getting my loot just yet.

[Hal]

Joke’s on you guys. I made it home from the gym safe and sound.

You won’t be getting my loot just yet.

Remember Monty Python?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4rR-OsTNCg

[dualstow]

I love that word loot. One of our few words from Sanskrit.

[Ad Orientem]

Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

This is clearly the most serious crisis in a generation... probably longer. As an historian by academic training I am hard pressed to think of anything in my lifetime that had this level of immediate urgency. The Cuban Missile Crisis, obviously more serious, predates my arrival by three years.

[Ad Orientem]

Worst case estimates for the pandemic (US- CDC)...

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

From here...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c ... imate.html

[yankees60]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tion-small



Vinny

[Kriegsspiel]

But, what about the other part of the equation: the odds of that worst case scenario happening? Without a good estimate of the odds, nobody can really comprehend the scenario. It's like O'Rourke saying the worst case for gun violence is an energetic madman going on an unstoppable shooting spree, killing millions of people, only pausing for sleep and other essential bodily functions... and not saying that the chances of that happening are 0 to 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

[Libertarian666]

But, what about the other part of the equation: the odds of that worst case scenario happening? Without a good estimate of the odds, nobody can really comprehend the scenario. It's like O'Rourke saying the worst case for gun violence is an energetic madman going on an unstoppable shooting spree, killing millions of people, only pausing for sleep and other essential bodily functions... and not saying that the chances of that happening are 0 to 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

The worst case scenario doesn't have to happen for the results to be horrific:

"Even severe flu seasons stress the nation’s hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Hospitals “need to start working now,” he said, “to get prepared to take care of a heck of a lot of people.”

Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the U.S. would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus."

(From the NY Times article)

[WiseOne]

Well... I think I may have the bug. Mom has been coughing and now feels flush and threw up. And I started coughing a day or two ago. No other symptoms yet. But my appetite has disappeared and for those who don't know me, that is NOT normal. I see a Netflix binge coming up.

Sorry to hear that!

Cough + fever = self-quarantine, for you and your Mom. Rest up and keep us posted--we will all be hoping/praying for you!

One part of the economy will definitely benefit from this: streaming TV & podcasts.

BTW here's a possibly appropriate book recommendation: Connie Willis, the Doomsday Book. Get it on Kindle. It is a science fiction story about a time traveler getting stuck in the Black Death in rural England. It is an engrossing read with an amazing amount of historical detail, and also gives our current situation a bit of perspective.

[yankees60]

Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

This is clearly the most serious crisis in a generation... probably longer. As an historian by academic training I am hard pressed to think of anything in my lifetime that had this level of immediate urgency. The Cuban Missile Crisis, obviously more serious, predates my arrival by three years.

I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, though I was only 11 years old at the time of it we were completely aware of its implications. During it while in school I wrote the year "1963" on my piece of paper and the girl next to me, Maria Clemento, shrieked, "We are not going to be alive then!"

Vinny

[dualstow]

And ‘Mandibles’.

Well, coming back from food shopping — we actually passed on the first store because of the lines outside — we heard a loud wet cough and turned to see a college-aged girl on the phone. No mouth covering attempted.

She was a good half a block away, but the way we both instinctively, reflexively turned toward the sound reminds me so much of SARS season.

[yankees60]

Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

This is clearly the most serious crisis in a generation... probably longer. As an historian by academic training I am hard pressed to think of anything in my lifetime that had this level of immediate urgency. The Cuban Missile Crisis, obviously more serious, predates my arrival by three years.

I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, though I was only 11 years old at the time of it we were completely aware of its implications. During it while in school I wrote the year "1963" on my piece of paper and the girl next to me, Maria Clemento, shrieked, "We are not going to be alive then!"

Vinny

And, for those of you not even being close to being alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis...you may not have known the drills we had as a normal part of school life.

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

Then, we'd all leave our classrooms, march down the hallways, and then crouch down low, covering our heads with our hands....as if that was going to protect us from an atomic bomb! I'm sure there must be YouTube videos of this drill as I'm almost equally sure this was also done in all schools throughout the country Libertarian666? Mountaineer?

Vinny

[flyingpylon]

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

They are called "lockdown" drills around here. Sounds a little better.

[dualstow]

And, for those of you not even being close to being alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis...you may not have known the drills we had as a normal part of school life.

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

Then, we'd all leave our classrooms, march down the hallways, and then crouch down low, covering our heads with our hands....as if that was going to protect us from an atomic bomb! I'm sure there must be YouTube videos of this drill as I'm almost equally sure this was also done in all schools throughout the country Libertarian666? Mountaineer?

↳ here you go viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2221&p=187682#p187682

[Xan]

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

They are called "lockdown" drills around here. Sounds a little better.

Same here. They told the kindergarteners it was in case an animal got in the building. They didn't ask why the blinds would need to be closed...

[yankees60]

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-presi ... GehPHktVN/

breaking news
Trump to declare national state of emergency over coronavirus: report



Vinny

[pmward]

I wish I could remember what fund manager it was, it was of one of the big name famous hedge fund guys, but he loaded up leveraged long on a Friday during the peak of the cuban missle crisis because he said something to the effect of "if I'm wrong I'll be dead, so what does it really matter?" Obviously it was one of the best trades in his career.

[yankees60]

Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

[Libertarian666]

Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

This is clearly the most serious crisis in a generation... probably longer. As an historian by academic training I am hard pressed to think of anything in my lifetime that had this level of immediate urgency. The Cuban Missile Crisis, obviously more serious, predates my arrival by three years.

I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, though I was only 11 years old at the time of it we were completely aware of its implications. During it while in school I wrote the year "1963" on my piece of paper and the girl next to me, Maria Clemento, shrieked, "We are not going to be alive then!"

Vinny

And, for those of you not even being close to being alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis...you may not have known the drills we had as a normal part of school life.

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

Then, we'd all leave our classrooms, march down the hallways, and then crouch down low, covering our heads with our hands....as if that was going to protect us from an atomic bomb! I'm sure there must be YouTube videos of this drill as I'm almost equally sure this was also done in all schools throughout the country Libertarian666? Mountaineer?

Vinny

We had those drills too.

I don't think the idea was that covering our heads was going to protect us from an atom bomb as such, just from shattering glass.