Coronavirus General Discussion

[pmward]

EDIT: The Fed is now saying that they're going to do whatever it takes in terms of monetary policy to prevent a market and economic crash. However, unlike 2008/2009, this is a problem being imposed on us by nature. It's not just a crisis of confidence in our banking sector that can be quelled away by a wall of money. It's not just a problem of bad numbers in computers. It's a problem that physically exists in the world and isn't going away overnight.

No, but the problem does eventually become manageable. And all that dry kindling laying out there from all the monetary and fiscal stimulus will be very combustable. I fully expect a recession, with contractionary Q1 and Q2 prints. But Q3 will have a low bar to beat comparatively. I expect the economic damage at the end of the day will be worse than the stock market damage. I expect a U shaped recovery for the economy, but a V shaped recovery in the stock market... because of all the stimulus. Also, look at China's Shanghai index. They are not at lows like we are. As soon as word hit the tape that cases were starting to level up their market started grinding higher. Mind you, it has still been very volatile. But nothing like ours has recently. We are following their lead. Our markets will do the same, as soon as there is a sniff of possible good news the markets will break out. The rubber band was stretched to the upside prior to the virus, and now it is very much stretched to the downside. It won't take much good news to cause it to snap back. However, we are probably a month or more before that good news is possible, imo. At the end of the day, the economy and markets will recover.

[WiseOne]

dualstow, hope your niece just has a cold...fortunately COVID19 barely affects kids under 10.

Here's an article about the failure of testing in the US, and contrasting this with countries that got testing in place early on:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-does-not

I posted something about this in another thread...can't remember which. The FDA was a big part of the problem, and the Trump administration did some good by getting them to back down from their "business as usual" red tape that would have made it impossible to implement a new test in less than 5 years. Beyond that, our health care system is hobbled by extreme over-regulation which is bound to make it impossible to react quickly in a crisis. A lot of that blame can be laid squarely at the feet of the Obama administration. There are private labs that could have gotten testing up and running a lot faster than the CDC, also - LabCorp and Quest for example.

[shekels]

Ok I have a question?
What is the Big deal with Corona testing?
If I am sick, do I care if I have Corona or that I have the Flu? Not really.
I feel like crap.
If I test positive for Corona then I am told I should be Quaranteened,
when I should just assume I have a transmittable disease and stay home.
If I get to the point i need to be Hospitalized then a test may be useful.

[shekels]

EDIT: The Fed is now saying that they're going to do whatever it takes in terms of monetary policy to prevent a market and economic crash. However, unlike 2008/2009, this is a problem being imposed on us by nature. It's not just a crisis of confidence in our banking sector that can be quelled away by a wall of money. It's not just a problem of bad numbers in computers. It's a problem that physically exists in the world and isn't going away overnight.

No, but the problem does eventually become manageable. And all that dry kindling laying out there from all the monetary and fiscal stimulus will be very combustable. I fully expect a recession, with contractionary Q1 and Q2 prints. But Q3 will have a low bar to beat comparatively. I expect the economic damage at the end of the day will be worse than the stock market damage. I expect a U shaped recovery for the economy, but a V shaped recovery in the stock market... because of all the stimulus. Also, look at China's Shanghai index. They are not at lows like we are. As soon as word hit the tape that cases were starting to level up their market started grinding higher. Mind you, it has still been very volatile. But nothing like ours has recently. We are following their lead. Our markets will do the same, as soon as there is a sniff of possible good news the markets will break out. The rubber band was stretched to the upside prior to the virus, and now it is very much stretched to the downside. It won't take much good news to cause it to snap back. However, we are probably a month or more before that good news is possible, imo. At the end of the day, the economy and markets will recover.

The Fed will inject even more stimulus and cut rates to keep the stock market up.
But the savers who are living off of interest are going to take it between the eyes.
Then how long will it take before the stimulus to be taken back off of the Feds balance sheet?
Monetizing worked so well for the Fed last time.

[Kriegsspiel]

Ok I have a question?
What is the Big deal with Corona testing?
If I am sick, do I care if I have Corona or that I have the Flu? Not really.
I feel like crap.
If I test positive for Corona then I am told I should be Quaranteened,
when I should just assume I have a transmittable disease and stay home.
If I get to the point i need to be Hospitalized then a test may be useful.

Agreed. Sick people should stay the fuck home. It's people that can't afford to skip a day or two's paycheck that you gotta be wary of.

[Xan]

Ok I have a question?
What is the Big deal with Corona testing?
If I am sick, do I care if I have Corona or that I have the Flu? Not really.
I feel like crap.
If I test positive for Corona then I am told I should be Quaranteened,
when I should just assume I have a transmittable disease and stay home.
If I get to the point i need to be Hospitalized then a test may be useful.

I've been seeing that people can be contagious with Wuhan Coronavirus up to 5 days before symptoms appear and for up to 37 (!) days after, long after the person feels perfectly well again. Pretty horrifying.

[shekels]

I've been seeing that people can be contagious with Wuhan Coronavirus up to 5 days before symptoms appear and for up to 37 (!) days after, long after the person feels perfectly well again. Pretty horrifying.

That is why the majority of the population will be exposed to the Wuhan virus here in the U.S.
The next month will be interesting.
Everyone Stay safe out there.

[Tortoise]

Sick people should stay the fuck home. It's people that can't afford to skip a day or two's paycheck that you gotta be wary of.

I'm at the office right now (they haven't told us all to work remotely yet, but probably will this weekend). And I hear not just one, but two guys in cubicles near me hacking and coughing like they have colds.

This, despite all of us receiving a companywide email recently telling anyone feeling under the weather (sore throat, cough, etc.) to STAY THE FUCK HOME.

People are idiots.

[pmward]

The Fed will inject even more stimulus and cut rates to keep the stock market up.
But the savers who are living off of interest are going to take it between the eyes.
Then how long will it take before the stimulus to be taken back off of the Feds balance sheet?
Monetizing worked so well for the Fed last time.

The same time the current liabilities come off the Fed's balance sheet... likely never. But this really doesn't matter. Every dollar in existence is an asset to one party and a liability to another. Whether that's the Fed, or a private bank, or the treasury, or somewhere else, someone has to hold the liability. What does it matter who it is? All that matters is the the liquidity is there when it is needed. Monitizing also worked fine last time. You want to go back and live through the financial crisis without the additional liquidity? Things would be much worse right now if they hadn't done this.

[Smith1776]

I have the movie Contagion on in the background while working today.

Seems appropriate.

[dualstow]

Ok I have a question?
What is the Big deal with Corona testing?
If I am sick, do I care if I have Corona or that I have the Flu? Not really.
I feel like crap.
If I test positive for Corona then I am told I should be Quaranteened,
when I should just assume I have a transmittable disease and stay home.
If I get to the point i need to be Hospitalized then a test may be useful.

Did you not watch G.I. Joe cartoons growing up?

But yes, it would be nice if more people, all people agreed with you that people should stay home. That would help a great deal.

[yankees60]

My personal update...

Tuesday I'd reported that not a small amount of time at our organization's staff meeting had been consumed by discussion of this virus and how we should respond. Out of that a committee was formed -- The Anti-Germ Squad.

They met this morning and they made their recommendations to the Executive Director.

Effectively immediately none of us have to come to work in our offices and can work from home.

Last I heard there were 105 cases reported in Massachusetts. Our county is one of the few in the state that have NO reported cases.

Just heard on the radio that in a few hours the word may be coming down that ALL schools in Massachusetts will be closed.

As I was closing my garage door after I got home I pointed my finger towards the outdoors and commanded, "Virus! You stay out!"

And, then when I got to my bedroom and saw my three cats I told them, "We are safe for the next four days!" I'm not going anywhere until I go back to my office Monday afternoon. I have my own office and I don't think there were too many other people around coming to see me.

Vinny

[yankees60]

Right now on C-Span the House of Representative are asking questions of many people in our government in regards to the Coronavirus Response.

One of the people being questioned is the highly creditable Dr. Anthony Fauci (a paisan!).

If you want to get some solid information put on C-Span now!

VInny

[shekels]

The Fed will inject even more stimulus and cut rates to keep the stock market up.
But the savers who are living off of interest are going to take it between the eyes.
Then how long will it take before the stimulus to be taken back off of the Feds balance sheet?
Monetizing worked so well for the Fed last time.

The same time the current liabilities come off the Fed's balance sheet... likely never. But this really doesn't matter. Every dollar in existence is an asset to one party and a liability to another. Whether that's the Fed, or a private bank, or the treasury, or somewhere else, someone has to hold the liability. What does it matter who it is? All that matters is the the liquidity is there when it is needed. Monitizing also worked fine last time. You want to go back and live through the financial crisis without the additional liquidity? Things would be much worse right now if they hadn't done this.

You did not distinguish, for every dollar in existence in our Debt Based system who is it an asset for or liability to.
Sure the Fed can be left holding the bag, and then Monetize the Debt which will lead to unintended consequences.
Like Liquidity that can lead to Zombie companies or over inflated stock prices.
You are speculating that things would be much worse after the Financial crisis without all the additional liquidity.
Worse for whom, It is just a matter of perception.
There is no guarantees that we would not be in the exact same place we are today,
except that Price Discovery would of happened sooner.

[yankees60]

There is this caller on the local sports talk radio show who has been incredibly informative as something who is experienced in this virus field.

I just requested that they put it on "Demand Audio" but if and until they do I'll put here what I can remember.

He stated that the virus is an encapsulated virus. Which means it's surrounded with oil and why it comes off your skin by using soap.

Viruses are not live. Anti-bacterial does not help. It actually makes these community-wise worse because you are helping develop antibiotic resistant bacteria which can harm others.

If you cannot buy because the shelves are bare you can make your own preparation. One bottle of 91% rubbing (Isopropyl Alcohol) mixed with one cup (I don't think measuring cup but the thing use to measure on top of the laundry detergent) of laundry detergent. Put it in a spray bottle for things like door knobs and other surfaces.

Laundry detergent is extremely powerful and destructive. It will destroy the virus. But you don't want to put it your skin direct as it will also destroy your skin!

He continued to say a lot else but I could not remember all. But he was NOT a fan of buying toilet paper.

Vinny

[pmward]

You did not distinguish, for every dollar in existence in our Debt Based system who is it an asset for or liability to.
Sure the Fed can be left holding the bag, and then Monetize the Debt which will lead to unintended consequences.
Like Liquidity that can lead to Zombie companies or over inflated stock prices.
You are speculating that things would be much worse after the Financial crisis without all the additional liquidity.
Worse for whom, It is just a matter of perception.
There is no guarantees that we would not be in the exact same place we are today,
except that Price Discovery would of happened sooner.

One can look back at the Great Depression, prior to the gold peg break when they tried to fight the deflation with austerity, and compare that to the Financial Crisis when liquidity was readily provided, and clearly see the difference. These are not assumptions, there is historical comparisons that can easily be made. I'll take the consequences of liquidity over the consequences of austerity in a liquidity squeeze any day. What we are experiencing now is a liquidity squeeze... and providing liquidity is warranted.

[drumminj]

I'll take the consequences of liquidity over the consequences of austerity in a liquidity squeeze any day.

Even if it means breaking our republic?

IMO principles do matter. In terms of short-term pain, perhaps the liquidity is preferable, but if it moves us away from a republic and into oligarchy would you still make that trade?

(Getting off topic I guess)

[pmward]

I'll take the consequences of liquidity over the consequences of austerity in a liquidity squeeze any day.

Even if it means breaking our republic?

IMO principles do matter. In terms of short-term pain, perhaps the liquidity is preferable, but if it moves us away from a republic and into oligarchy would you still make that trade?

(Getting off topic I guess)

Since when hasn't the U.S. been an oligarchy? I mean let's be real here, it always has been, it's just done a great job of putting up an illusion that it is not. I wish it weren't so, but I personally know I have absolutely 0 say in anything that happens. But a select set of politicians, corporations, bureaucrats, etc run the country for all of us. Any feeling of having any control or that your thoughts or desires actually matter or make a difference is an illusion.

Also, FWIW, if there was no Fed and they truly left the cost of capital up to the open market to decide, it's quite clear that right now the market would be screaming for more liquidity and lower rates. The Fed has been following the market, not the other way around. Matter of fact, they are behind the ball and trying to play catch up. The Fed is holding the money tighter than the market wants right now, not forcing easy policy on the market.

[yankees60]

I'll take the consequences of liquidity over the consequences of austerity in a liquidity squeeze any day.

Even if it means breaking our republic?

IMO principles do matter. In terms of short-term pain, perhaps the liquidity is preferable, but if it moves us away from a republic and into oligarchy would you still make that trade?

(Getting off topic I guess)

Since when hasn't the U.S. been an oligarchy? I mean let's be real here, it always has been, it's just done a great job of putting up an illusion that it is not. I wish it weren't so, but I personally know I have absolutely 0 say in anything that happens. But a select set of politicians, corporations, bureaucrats, etc run the country for all of us. Any feeling of having any control or that your thoughts or desires actually matter or make a difference is an illusion.

Also, FWIW, if there was no Fed and they truly left the cost of capital up to the open market to decide, it's quite clear that right now the market would be screaming for more liquidity and lower rates. The Fed has been following the market, not the other way around. Matter of fact, they are behind the ball and trying to play catch up. The Fed is holding the money tighter than the market wants right now, not forcing easy policy on the market.

I used to believe what you state in your first paragraph. And, it used to be the only thing I agreed upon with Bernie.

However, almost NO "politicians, corporations, bureaucrats" supported Trump. Therefore if they had such control how could they not exert sufficient control so that Trump was NOT elected?

Same with money in politics. He spent little (relatively) yet got elected. Steyer and Bloomberg each spent enormous sums and what did that get them?

Vinny

[pmward]

I used to believe what you state in your first paragraph. And, it used to be the only thing I agreed upon with Bernie.

However, almost NO "politicians, corporations, bureaucrats" supported Trump. Therefore if they had such control how could they not exert sufficient control so that Trump was NOT elected?

Same with money in politics. He spent little (relatively) yet got elected. Steyer and Bloomberg each spent enormous sums and what did that get them?

Vinny

I mean, elections are open to the public obviously (though we all know they are tampered with as well). But one single vote matters very little in electing someone. And once that politician is in office, well he's just part of the "politicians, corporations, and bureaucrats" club at that point. Everyone falls in line and the train keeps moving and we are forgotten about. I don't trust that any of them are acting out of anything more than self interest.

[yankees60]

I used to believe what you state in your first paragraph. And, it used to be the only thing I agreed upon with Bernie.

However, almost NO "politicians, corporations, bureaucrats" supported Trump. Therefore if they had such control how could they not exert sufficient control so that Trump was NOT elected?

Same with money in politics. He spent little (relatively) yet got elected. Steyer and Bloomberg each spent enormous sums and what did that get them?

Vinny

I mean, elections are open to the public obviously (though we all know they are tampered with as well). But one single vote matters very little in electing someone. And once that politician is in office, well he's just part of the "politicians, corporations, and bureaucrats" club at that point. Everyone falls in line and the train keeps moving and we are forgotten about. I don't trust that any of them are acting out of anything more than self interest.

I believe that Trump is acting even more than the usual politician in his own self interest but I don't think he belongs to their club. They can only choose to be part of his single person club.

Regarding a single vote mattering.

I read something about this. And, I think it was supporting your position since most votes cancel one another out. And, I think it carried it to the extreme pointing out that for many cases before the Supreme Court, all their votes did not count as they were always balancing one another out and it came down to how just one specific person was voting to break the tie.

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Well... I think I may have the bug. Mom has been coughing and now feels flush and threw up. And I started coughing a day or two ago. No other symptoms yet. But my appetite has disappeared and for those who don't know me, that is NOT normal. I see a Netflix binge coming up.

[pmward]

I believe that Trump is acting even more than the usual politician in his own self interest but I don't think he belongs to their club. They can only choose to be part of his single person club.

Either way, they still all wind up in bed together a part of the same exclusive club. It's just the others joining Trump's club instead of Trump joining the existing club.

I read something about this. And, I think it was supporting your position since most votes cancel one another out. And, I think it carried it to the extreme pointing out that for many cases before the Supreme Court, all their votes did not count as they were always balancing one another out and it came down to how just one specific person was voting to break the tie.

Fair point, a viewing angle that I have never considered.

[Smith1776]

I'm gearing up for my nightly, harrowing excursion to the gym.

If I don't make it back:

- Xan can have all my stocks
- Craig can have all my cash
- Dualstow gets all my gold
- Long bonds go to Vinny

Bury me with a signed copy of Craig and Tex's PP book plz.

[dualstow]

• Medicago of Canada is on the way to a cure.

Medicago Announces Production of a Viable Vaccine Candidate for COVID-19

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medicago ... 00915.html

Medicago, a biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Quebec City, announced today that they have successfully produced a Virus-Like Particle (VLP) of the coronavirus just 20 days after obtaining the SARS-CoV-2 (virus causing the COVID-19 disease) gene. Production of the VLP is the first step in developing a vaccine for COVID-19, which will now undergo preclinical testing for safety and efficacy. Once this is completed, Medicago expects to discuss with the appropriate Health Agencies to initiate human trials of the vaccine by summer (July/August) 2020.

• Smithy, I’m honored. We’ll bury you with that Johansson robot.
• Just saw your post, Ad. Do take care!