Stock scream room

[sophie]

Just checked my google sheet again. It's within bands so no rebalancing today. So, we wait....

I can share this little rebalance checker if anyone is interested, although it would be nice to figure out how to include interest/dividends. Anyone know how you can get that info out of googlefinance?

[Cortopassi]

Just checked my google sheet again. It's within bands so no rebalancing today. So, we wait....

I can share this little rebalance checker if anyone is interested, although it would be nice to figure out how to include interest/dividends. Anyone know how you can get that info out of googlefinance?

I enter dividends manually. I don't know a way.

[Tortoise]

Just checked my google sheet again. It's within bands so no rebalancing today. So, we wait....

I can share this little rebalance checker if anyone is interested, although it would be nice to figure out how to include interest/dividends. Anyone know how you can get that info out of googlefinance?

I enter dividends manually. I don't know a way.

Maybe you could import the "adjusted close" value from Yahoo Finance using Google spreadsheet's IMPORTDATA function?

[pmward]

And... now the fiscal stimulus train starts. Apparently Trump has proposed a payroll tax cut and a stimulus package for special small business loans and paid leave for hourly workers.

[Cortopassi]

And... now the fiscal stimulus train starts. Apparently Trump has proposed a payroll tax cut and a stimulus package for special small business loans and paid leave for hourly workers.

All "I" am going to do is save that money. I don't know what the average American is going to do, but I doubt people will be running out with the cash to buy a 75" flat screen. Thinking of what the amount is likely to entail, maybe they can get a little more toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Loans to keep small biz afloat are a great idea. At least two of those increase the national debt, good for gold.

None of this will make the virus go away which is the main driver now and probably for at least a couple more months.

I am truly scared for my parents and all the other 75+ year old people still around in my and my wife's families. Many of which have a load of other issues.

[pmward]

Yeah I'm scared for my parents and family that are older as well. Totally with you there. I'm not so worried about if I get it. I mean, I don't want to get it, but I'll live if I do.

I do think the small business loans and the paid time off for hourly workers will be necessary if we continue to progress at the rate that Italy has. I agree that general helicopter money is not the most efficient use of deficit spending, but markets are screaming deflation right now, and in a deflation any dollar supply brought into the market is a good thing. I also am starting to think we get another 50bp cut from the Fed this month, AND official QE 4 (through term structuring the "not QE" from October as well as an increase in fresh liquidity indefinitely into the future). I also think we get back to 0 at some point in April. This all assuming of course that we continue at the same trajectory as the other countries before us. At least from a stock investing standpoint, this does limit downside potential. As you said, it's also incredibly bullish for gold long term (although short term selling pressure could still come) and of course it adds further fuel to the bond rally.

[I Shrugged]

Dang, I just did TLH and have to wait a month for the next opportunity...

However, my Google sheets ETF simulation of my portfolio came up with the answer to Rebalance Now:

Last rebalance 1/1/20. All assets started at 20% of portfolio. Unfortunately, interest/dividends not counted (couldn't figure out how to do that). My rebalance bands are 14%/26%.

Current asset proportions:
Total stock market (VTI) 16.7%
Small cap value (IJS) 14.7%
Long bonds (TLT) 26.7% <-- this is the rebalance tripwire
Gold (GLD) 22%
Cash (SHV) 20%

Gratifyingly, despite today's drop the portfolio has decreased only 0.48% since Jan 1.

So...rebalance now (tonight/tomorrow AM more likely) or wait?

As long as you have viable alternatives to rebalance into, why wait? During 2009 I TLH’d in stock funds at least 3 times in short order. Vanguard got mad at me. That’s when I switched to ETF’s.

[sophie]

My rebalance checker now says NO, but after today...we'll see. It looks like stocks are headed down again today (futures at -3%).

[pmward]

Yeah and I'm down 12% in VBR now... which was something I swapped to in a tax loss harvest just 12 days ago. I think I'm going to pull the trigger and harvest these losses as well... I'm going to shuffle into SLYV this time. I'm starting to feel like I'm playing musical chairs here... good news though is I have at least a couple years of losses harvested in the last couple weeks.

[mathjak107]

Tax loss harvesting is a double edge sword ...it really just kicks the tax can down the road on the next investment instead .

I got burned bad doing that ....i delayed taxes by tax loss harvesting and the rate for me jumped from 15 to 23.80%on the next investment

The best deal around is tax gain harvesting...that is when you can take tax free gains in the zero percent capital gains bracket

[sophie]

Yeah and I'm down 12% in VBR now... which was something I swapped to in a tax loss harvest just 12 days ago. I think I'm going to pull the trigger and harvest these losses as well... I'm going to shuffle into SLYV this time. I'm starting to feel like I'm playing musical chairs here... good news though is I have at least a couple years of losses harvested in the last couple weeks.

CAREFUL!!! Buying/selling within 30 days on either side of a TLH will result in a wash sale. You have to wait until day 31 to do anything.

[Libertarian666]

Yeah and I'm down 12% in VBR now... which was something I swapped to in a tax loss harvest just 12 days ago. I think I'm going to pull the trigger and harvest these losses as well... I'm going to shuffle into SLYV this time. I'm starting to feel like I'm playing musical chairs here... good news though is I have at least a couple years of losses harvested in the last couple weeks.

CAREFUL!!! Buying/selling within 30 days on either side of a TLH will result in a wash sale. You have to wait until day 31 to do anything.

Only if you buy something that is "substantially identical", which is quite easy to avoid.
And a wash sale, while annoying, isn't disastrous. It just means you don't get to take the loss now.

[Tyler]

And a wash sale, while annoying, isn't disastrous. It just means you don't get to take the loss now.

Unless it's a wash sale where you bought the same security in an IRA. Then you lose the loss completely. Be careful! BTW, that's one more good reason to turn off automatic reinvestment of dividends. Those reinvetsments will also trigger a wash sale, and for things like bond funds that pay monthly interest it's virtually impossible to avoid the 30-day rule.

I was pretty proud of myself for harvesting some losses yesterday. So of course today tanked even further. Luckily it's not a big deal and I can always repeat the process later when I eventually rebalance, but it's a good lesson in not worrying about trying to time things.

[Libertarian666]

And a wash sale, while annoying, isn't disastrous. It just means you don't get to take the loss now.

Unless it's a wash sale where you bought the same security in an IRA. Then you lose the loss completely. Be careful! BTW, that's one more good reason to turn off automatic reinvestment of dividends. Those reinvetsments will also trigger a wash sale, and for things like bond funds that pay monthly interest it's virtually impossible to avoid the 30-day rule.

I was pretty proud of myself for harvesting some losses yesterday. So of course today tanked even further. Luckily it's not a big deal and I can always repeat the process later when I eventually rebalance, but it's a good lesson in not worrying about trying to time things.

Ah, I had forgotten about the IRA rule.
Fortunately I don't have to worry about that because I don't have any remaining assets that could cause a wash sale.

[Cortopassi]

From 6% year high TWO(2!) days ago on the PP to likely a bit less than 0% after mutual funds price tonight. A bit volatile, yes!

[Libertarian666]

Tax loss harvesting is a double edge sword ...it really just kicks the tax can down the road on the next investment instead .

I got burned bad doing that ....i delayed taxes by tax loss harvesting and the rate for me jumped from 15 to 23.80%on the next investment

The best deal around is tax gain harvesting...that is when you can take tax free gains in the zero percent capital gains bracket

Or take IRA withdrawals and stay in the 0% bracket.
This will make four years in a row for me!

[dualstow]

936AM EST: trading suspended again, for 15 minutes

[Vil]

Stoxx 50 was down almost 11% some 20-30 minutes ago... Crazy crazy times..
My US PP had a nose dive, given that Gold went down and I am using a US bond bullet that's not too long (WA 8.xx years due to lack of other..).

Only good thing is that my leveraged shorting sessions of Stoxx 50 are really fruitful these days.. very sad.. Stoxx 50 is back to the levels of 4 years ago (and with a small bump in between, can be considered back on the level of 6 years ago.......)

[Cortopassi]

Really close to a rebalance band on my 5% position on VBR. Won't get hit today, but if this continues one more day, it might.

How about you, Sophie?

[pmward]

My gosh those small caps. IJR today is down to the level first seen in March 2014, and last seen in June 2016. Literally wiped 6 years of gains off the table in 2 weeks.

S&P is also getting close to those December 2018 lows I've been eyeing. I need to do an updated percent calculation on where I'm at, but from a dark arts perspective I'm really hoping to get a chance to rebalance into stocks around that 2350-2400 December 2018 support line.

[pmward]

Fed just announced 500 billion in short term liquidity both today and tomorrow (1T total)... on top of the current 175 billion they are currently providing daily.

[Tortoise]

<pop!>

[dualstow]

<pop!>

<fizzzzz....>

[dualstow]

Well, I guess I don't need to rebalance out of stocks.
Market's done it for me.

[Smith1776]

I didn't hit a rebalancing band but couldn't help myself since most of my assets are in tax free accounts. Sold off some of the other components and bought some stocks.